21st Century NBA Basketball Prediction Program - Trouble in Paradise (and random coaching thoughts)

  Now that I’ve gotten my two big chess tournaments and my 55th birthday out of the way I have turned my attention back to my NBA prediction program which has lain dormant since August. When I last left my program I found two formulas that gave a 63% result rate on the 2014 season which would not only be the stuff of legends but easily monetizable. I was distrustful of the abnormally high success rate so I loaded the 2013-2014 schedule, results, and lines in my database and ran my formulas against the new data.

  My formulas that were so successful for the 2014 season were worse than awful for the 2013 season and scored 40% for both seasons. This unwelcome turn of events leaves me searching for a formula that will work for both seasons. If I can’t find one I’ll have to research what made the two seasons different and as the 2015 season takes shape decide on a formula to use. I could add more seasons of scores and betting lines to my database to determine if the 2013 season is an outlier but that wouldn’t protect me from the possibility of this upcoming season being an outlier also.

  As I test various formulas the NBA season is less than three weeks away. I’ve loaded the 2015-2016 schedule into my database and will have to update the point spreads daily as the season goes along. I thought I might have been busy this week watching the Yankees in the baseball playoffs but there was only one game to watch since the Houston Astros of all teams came into Yankee Stadium without a playoff win in a decade and came out with a 3-0 win and moved on to play the Kansas City Royals in the divisional series. It was another lost season for the Yankees. I had some high hopes in late July when the Yankees had a seven game lead in their division with a 57-42 record. My concerns about the age of the starting lineup proved justified as the team went into a collective hitting slump in September. On September 7th the Yankees were 18 games over .500 at 77-59 an only a half game behind the resurgent Blue Jays and their trading deadline acquisitions Troy Tutowitzki and David Price only to collapse with a 10-16 record down the stretch and limp into the playoffs with a mediocre 87-75 record.

  This is the third year in a row the Yankees have failed to win their division which is the longest streak in 20 years and this is the 6th year in a row without a World Series appearance which is the third longest streak since 1923. Despite this record of mediocrity manager Joe Girardi’s job is safe. General Manager Brian Cashman said last week about Girardi (here is the story) "He is signed for two more years and managed the team to the playoffs. It’s not his fault we didn’t hit. He managed a perfect playoff game."

  I suppose Cashman is right. After all the Yankees were shut out by 20 game winner Dallas Keuchel and when you go up against 20 game winners these things can happen. My question is if Girardi managed a ‘perfect playoff game’ and is such a great manager doesn’t that mean there is something wrong with the talent on the Yankees? Where are the Yankees' 20 game winners? They haven’t had one since C.C. Sabathia (who got so drunk two weekends ago that he had to remove himself from the Yankees’ postseason roster in order to check into rehab) in 2010. Keuchel is 27 years old and was drafted by the Astros in the 7th round of the 2009 draft. It is not like he was a top draft pick yet the Astros were able to develop him into a 20 game winner. I don’t see the Yankees farm system developing 20 game winners and there doesn’t seem to be any superstar every day players either. Under Cashman the Yankees occasionally have developed a relief pitcher but except for Robinson Cano there haven’t been any perennial all-star starting pitchers or everyday players coming from the farm system which leaves the team overspending on mediocre veterans that wear out at the end of the season. I cannot understand how the Yankee ownership can tolerate the poor return on the investment of a huge payroll when low-budget teams like the Royals, Rangers, and crosstown Mets are winning their divisions and still in the playoffs.

  One NBA team that is refusing to settle for mediocrity is the Oklahoma City Thunder. Under the leadership of coach Scott Brooks and superstar players Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, and James Harden the Thunder went to the NBA Finals in 2012 which they lost to the Miami Heat in five games. The team decided they would not go over the salary cap to keep James Harden and traded him to the Houston Rockets for some role players that never made an impact on the team. In the 2012-13 season, Westbrook was hurt in the playoffs the Thunder fell to the Grizzlies in the second round. In 2013-2014 the team fell to the eventual champion Spurs in the Western Conference finals. Last season saw Durant miss most of the season with a foot injury and the team missed the playoffs for the first time in six seasons despite a 45-37 record.

  While the Yankees can make the playoffs for one game in three seasons and management gets contract extensions the Thunder decided to make a coaching change and Brooks found himself out of a job. A large part of the reason for the coaching change was the Thunder are in a ‘win now’ mode that is bordering on desperation. Durant is a free agent after this season with Westbrook following next year and there is no guarantee that these two superstars won’t leave the Thunder to play in larger markets to boost their profile and chase the championship they haven’t been able to obtain in Oklahoma City.

  I would have expected the Thunder to get a coach with a proven professional track record or a hot assistant coach but they instead lured longtime Florida Gators coach Billy Donovan from the college ranks to take his first professional coaching position. Donovan won two national championships with the Gators but very few college coaches find success in the professional ranks. Former Butler coach Brad Stevens has gotten favorable reviews for leading the moribund Boston Celtics to the playoffs in his second season but top college coaches Rick Pitino and John Calipari were busts that left the Celtics and Nets (respectively) in shambles after taking over their operations.

  I think Donovan will not follow his mentor Pitino and fellow Pitino disciple Calipari into bust status and expect him to be highly successful as a pro coach. While Pitino and Calipari leveraged their college success into complete control of their teams, Donovan is the coach and only the coach so he can concentrate on coaching. When college coaches transition to the pros they tend to have trouble with the lack absolute authority they had over their college players. Donovan may have this problem but since he did have some pro experience in the 1980s as a very marginal player he should know that he can't treat pro athletes the same as his college players.

  Donovan is thought of as an offensive genius and the early quotes from Durant and Westbrook seem to be enthusiastic concerning the new offensive system. As much as I think Donovan will be successful if Durant and Westbrook are injured as much as they have been the past few years, the Thunder could miss the playoffs yet again and have a worse record than last year. But until then I’ll be keeping a special eye out for the Thunder this season.

Confessions of a Yankee Fan

  The 2015 baseball season has made it past the halfway point and to my surprise the New York Yankees have the largest division lead of any team in baseball as I write this on Saturday morning. The Yankees’ 49-40 record is the least impressive of all the division winners but they have a 4.5 game lead by virtue of being the only team in their division with a winning record. Posting this on Monday after the Yankees and Mariners split two games over the weekend the Yankees have a 4 game lead over the Baltimore Orioles which is now only the third largest division lead. This shows how fluid the season still is with 10 weeks remaining.

  I didn’t expect the team to be competitive this year. It is a welcome surprise to think about the possibility of the Yankees making the playoffs for the first time in three years. The offense has been good (413 runs – 2nd in baseball) , the pitching spotty (10th in the league in ERA), and overall I was expecting the same sort of 85-90 win team that has been mired on the mediocrity treadmill the past few years. I have hopes for a postseason run because the team has the core ingredients for October success – great relief pitching and stellar top of the rotation pitching. Michael Pineda is finally free from the injuries that have plagued him since being acquired from the Mariners in 2012 and been every bit the ace Yankee GM Brian Cashman hoped for when gave up top prospect and proven steroid user Jesus Montero for him. Masahiro Tanaka hasn’t been worth his 7 year $155 million dollar contract but has been a competent and occasionally outstanding second starter. The bullpen has been generationally stellar with closer Andrew Miller unhittable and setup man Delin Betances (the first Yankee farm system product I’ve mentioned so far) looking as if he can be a generational closer himself with 79 strikeouts in 48 innings. If the Yankees can get to the playoffs and get a playoff quality starter from Ivan Nova or Nathan Eovaldi or CC Sabathia to go along with Pineda and Tanaka they could make 2015 a championship year.

  The Yankee bats have been good enough to score the second most runs in baseball. The offense consists of past their prime sluggers (Carlos Beltran, Mark Teixeira, and steroid user Alex Rodriguez), above average table setters (Jacoby Ellsbury and Brett Gardner), and competent end of the order players in Brian McCann and Chase Headley to go along with good field no hit middle infielders. Every single one of the offensive players I mentioned are past the age of 30 which makes the possibility of a summer drop-off a concern but for now I’ll take leading the division in mid-July.

  With a payroll of 211 MILLION DOLLARS (second only to the Dodgers $273 million) I expect the Yankees to be near the top of the league. I’m not saying the Yankees’ payroll should be enough to buy them a World Series but to spend 100 MILLION DOLLARS more on players than teams like the Royals, A’s, and Orioles and then be on the outside of the playoffs looking in while these low spending teams are participating makes no sense to me. If I owned the Yankees I’d hire the guy running the Tampa Bay Rays to run my team. The Rays consistently have the lowest payroll in baseball and consistently have a .500 or better team. They do this by having a better farm system than most other teams and it can’t just be because they get good draft picks – they’ve won 90+ games 5 of the last 8 years even though they can only keep a handful of their best players. The combination of the Rays farm system smarts with the Yankees wallet could be a dynasty for the ages.

  I didn’t see any of the All-Star game but I saw the headlines about former Yankee A.J. Burnett finally making it to the All-Star team in 2015 in what is his final major league season. It was a feel good story that turned into a feel bad story when Burnett didn’t get in the game. Burnett started 6 playoff and World Series games for the Yankees 2009 to 2011 and was either quite good or really bad. Burnett won game 2 of the 2009 World Series when he gave up one run over seven innings. He followed that up in Game 5 by not giving the Yankees a chance when he gave up six runs in 2+ innings. In his game one start in the 2013 division Series for the Pirates, Burnett was torched for 7 runs in 2 innings by the Cardinals. He didn’t pitch in the rest of the five game series. I suppose I’m happy Burnett made an All-Star team but I can’t blame N.L. manager Bruce Bochy for not putting him in given his spotty record in big games. The bloated 33 man roster for the All-Star Teams means that in any given baseball game you will be seeing five all-stars and there are plenty of good pitchers besides Burnett. If the All-Star game roster was a standard 25 players Burnett likely wouldn’t even have been on the team.

  One Yankee who didn’t make the All-Star team was Alex Rodriguez, who missed the entire 2014 season because he was suspended for steroid use. Rodriguez is second on the team in home runs with 19 and third in RBI with 52. Rodriguez turns 40 next week and is 89 home runs short of the steroid-aided record of 762 of Barry Bonds. Rodriguez needs 30 home runs a year over the next three years to break the tainted home run record. Logic says he can’t but logic also wouldn’t say that Rodriguez would have his best slugging percentage since he was 34 years old after a year suspension and yet he does. If A-Rod’s resurgence is the result of yet another breakthrough in performance enhancing drugs there is no reason he can’t break the tainted home run record.

  The last thing I noticed about the All-Star Game was that it was in Cincinnati and all-time hits leader Pete Rose was allowed one of his infrequent associations with major league baseball. He was introduced on the field as one of Cincinnati’s franchise four players. Rose accepted a lifetime ban from baseball in 1989 after a lengthy battle with then Commissioner Bart Giamatti over whether Rose bet on baseball games as manager of the Cincinnati Reds. Rose didn’t admit to betting on baseball, claiming he couldn’t fight those charges and his income tax evasion trial at the same time. Giamatti died of a heart attack a few months after Roses’s ban and the stress caused by Rose’s public battle with him was largely credited with causing the chain smoking and overweight Giamatti's death. This led to a ruling by that players on baseball's ineligible list are not eligible to be on the Hall of Fame ballot and effectively locked Rose out of baseball's highest honor until he is reinstated by Major League Baseball.

  26 years have passed since Rose’s suspension. In 2004, Rose wrote a book called ‘My Prison Without Bars’ in which he admitted he bet on baseball as a manager. Earlier this year Rose applied for reinstatement to new baseball commissioner Rob Manfred (the third commissioner since Giamatti). Last month ESPN claimed to have obtained documents proving Rose bet on baseball while he was still an active player.

  I think new Commissioner Manfred would like to score a public relations coup by letting Rose become eligible for the Hall of Fame but will resist that temptation and will be reinstated posthumously if at all. Letting Rose into the Hall of Fame would make finding out every detail about his gambling a career making story for every sports journalist. The reason that only dead people are allowed on stamps, coins, and bills is to keep the honoring institutions from being embarrassed. Penn State no doubt thought honoring Joe Paterno with a statue while he was alive to enjoy it was a great idea and the Big Ten no doubt thought that naming their football championship trophy after Joe Paterno while he was alive to enjoy it was a great idea. When Paterno became embroiled in the Sandusky child abuse scandal the statue was removed from the Penn State campus and his name removed from the trophy to the great embarrassment of the Big Ten and Penn State. I can’t see Major League Baseball letting Pete Rose in their Hall of Fame until he’s passed away and not available to confirm, deny, or even say no comment to any future gambling allegations.

Yankee Thoughts and a Book Review of 'Driving Mr. Berra'

  It’s been a bad year to be a Yankee fan. The team failed to make the playoffs for the second year in a row. This hasn’t happened in 20 years. I understand that this may not seem like a big deal to fans of teams that get to the playoffs once or twice in a decade if that often. But when your team spends more money on players than almost every other team getting into the watered down baseball playoffs by finishing with the fifth best record in a 15 team league should be a given. The Yankees payroll this year was 209 MILLION DOLLARS. This was second in baseball to the Dodgers 235 million dollar payroll and 34 million more than the third biggest spender, the Philadelphia Phillies. For their 209 MILLION DOLLAR payroll the Yankees had the 13th best record of baseball’s 30 major league teams.

  If you owned the steak house with the second highest expenses in town but were judged as only serving the 13th best steak what would you do? I would think very hard about getting new management for my steak house. Faced with a similar situation Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner extended the contract of General Manager Brian Cashman for another three years. Cashman has been the Yankee’s General Manager since 1998 and presided over the caretaking of the championship squads of 1996-2000. As that team broke up, Cashman spent millions of dollars on ‘hot’ free agents like Jason Giambi, Gary Sheffield, Bobby Abreu, steroid user Alex Rodriguez, Mark Texieria and veteran pitchers like CC Sabathia, Mark Mussina, and Randy Johnson. In the last 14 years, this strategy has yielded exactly one World Series championship, two World Series losses, three AL Championship series losses, and five first round division losses to go along with the three playoff misses.

  Any General Manager with a fat checkbook can sign free agents but to use this strategy to win championships the free agents must supplement home grown players from the farm system and that’s where the Yankees have been lacking. In the last 15 years, the farm system has coughed up one all-star everyday player (Robinson Cano) and one all-star pitcher (reliever David Robertson). Cashman hasn’t shown he can build a farm system that can even produce pedestrian players and yet he is still the General Manager and Joe Girardi is still the manager and the team is in their third longest stretch since 1921 of not being in a World Series (much less winning one) and I see no end in sight. I’m not saying because the Yankees spend twice as much as teams like the Baltimore Orioles, St. Louis Cardinals, or Kansas City Royals they should win twice as many games but when they can’t win at least as many games as these low spenders there’s a problem somewhere and when Cashman’s recent performance is rewarded with a contract extension I have to think the problem starts at ownership.

  Last month I was at the ‘Books-A-Million’ store in Ames and picked up a copy of the 2012 book ‘Driving Mr. Yogi : Yogi Berra, Ron Guidry, and Baseball’s Greatest Gift’ by Harvey Araton. The book advertised itself as a collection of stories about Berra and Guidry’s adventures as spring training instructors for the Yankees over the last decade and a half where one of Guidry’s assignments was to watch over the octogenarian Berra. It looked like some easy reading about a pair of Yankee legends. Ron Guidry was a starting pitcher on the Yankees championship teams of the 1970’s and had one of the great seasons of all time in 1978 when he went 25-3 with nine shutouts and an ERA of under 2. Becayse he was from Louisiana he had nicknames like ‘Gator’ and ‘Louisiana Lightning’ and was portrayed as a Cajun country boy. He was a consistent winner for around 10 years before arm troubles ended his career and had a brief stint as the Yankees pitching coach in the mid-2000’s. The Yankees of the 1970’s were nicknamed ‘The Bronx Zoo’ and the 1980’s version was just as crazy with Billy Martin coming and going as manager and getting into fights with players and strangers in bars. While many of the other players of that era wrote tell-all books and left the team on bad terms, Guidry left the team without any recriminations or hard feelings.

  Yogi Berra is one of the greatest players in baseball history. He won three MVP’s in the 1950s and was on 10 world champion Yankee teams from the 1940’s to the 1960’s. Berra was short and squat and was constantly made fun of by the press early in his career but when it became apparent what a great player the press shifted their focus and treated him as the ‘idiot savant’ of baseball. Anything he said that was slightly off kilter was picked up on and reported on. Yogi was once asked what time it was and he said “Do you mean now?” and when asked about the restaurant he worked at in the off season replied “No one goes there anymore. It’s too crowded”. These became called known as “Yogisms” and further endeared him to the public as the innocent purveyor of common sense sayings wrapped in contradictions.

  As much as he was portrayed as an idiot savant, Berra was no dummy. He was the Yankee manager in 1964 and took the team to the World Series but fired when the team lost to the Cardinals in 7 games. He then became a coach for the New York Mets, took over as manager after Gil Hodges died of a heart attack and took that team to the World Series in 1973, losing in 7 games to the Oakland A’s. After being fired by the Mets in 1975, Berra went back to the Yankees as a coach and in 1984 was given the manager’s job. The 1984 season was over before it started when the Detroit Tigers bolted to a 35-5 record (this was before the days of wild card teams) but the team finished strong and expectations were high for 1985 when future Hall of Famer Rickey Henderson was acquired in a trade with the Oakland A’s.

  Owner George Steinbrenner said Berra would be the manager all year, but when the team started with a 6-10 record (including a three game sweep at the hands of the Red Sox) the promise was broken and Berra was fired. It wasn’t the firing that rankled Berra – he knew as well as anyone that all managers were fired – it was that Steinbrenner didn’t tell him in person or even on the phone but instead had one of his lackeys tell Berra the news. All the other Yankees that trashed Steinbrenner and the team on their departure eventually came back to be on the coaching staff or appear at Old Timers day or receive a plaque or award but not Berra. He vowed to never return to Yankee Stadium until Steinbrenner no longer owned the team. And he stuck to his principles until 1999 when Steinbrenner went to the Yogi Berra Museum in Montclair to apologize in person. Yogi was already a legend to Yankee fans and being the one man that wouldn’t knuckle under to Steinbrenner only further cemented his legendary status.

  The book starts out with Guidry picking up Berra at the beginning of Spring Training in 2011 and then drifts into a story about how Yogi had to miss the previous year’s Old-Timer’s Day at Yankee Stadium because he tripped on his front steps and how the fall caused him to spend time in the hospital and how the time spent recuperating from his fall kept him inactive and slowed him considerably once he was fully recovered. After that downer of a start, the book heads back to the genesis of Guidry and Berra’s friendship in the 1970’s with Berra telling Guidry how to get George Brett out by encouraging him to throw the first pitch up and in and then throw sliders away.

  The majority of the book alternates between Guidry and Berra’s spring training routines and baseball stories from their pasts. In spring training Berra insists on adhering to routines like eating at the same rotation of restaurants and arriving at the ballpark at the same time every day which Guidry goes along with and Guidry cooks an annual feast of Cajun frog legs. There are some spring training stories that show how even in his eighties Berra gives useful and welcomed advice to the current players while Guidry passes on his knowledge to the younger pitchers and how both men have a blast just hanging around in Florida talking baseball with the rest of the old timers for a few weeks every spring.

At the 9:20 mark of this video you can see the famous Billy Martin-Reggie Jackson confrontation

  There were a lot of older stories I remembered and some I hadn’t read about before. An entire chapter was devoted to Steinbrenner’s reconciliation with Berra in early 1999 and another to Yogi Berra day at Yankee Stadium in 1999 where David Cone pitched a perfect game. Guidry gave his account of the famous dugout confrontation between Billy Martin and Reggie Jackson in 1977 with a different spin, talking about how former catchers Berra and Elston Howard knew to get between Martin and Jackson. The book was a great read but got more and more depressing as it continues. Berra and Guidry’s stunned reaction to the 2004 collapse against the Red Sox, the Yankees failure to win a playoff series, the firing of Joe Torre (and Guidry as the pitching coach), and the death of Steinbrenner are backdrops for Berra’s aging and increasing enfeeblement. Only the 2009 championship brings relief from the maudlin tone of the second half of the book. By the last few chapters Berra has aged to the point of infirmity and is living in an assisted living facility and asks Guidry for permission not to get into his uniform for 2011 spring training and eventually has so much trouble walking that when preparations for the annual Old-Timer’s day are made it is arranged for the Yankees that are Hall of Fame members to be driven by cart for their introductions to mask the fact that Berra is for the most part wheelchair bound. Thankfully the book ends before a new chapter detailing his further infirmities and the death of his wife Carmen in 2014.

  So what started out as a fun book ended up being depressing journey into old age. Berra and Guidry’s friendship is genuine enough and it is cool to read about the passing down of the Yankee traditions but I could have lived without reading how one of the greatest American success stories of the 20th century ages and becomes infirm to the point of debating to wear dark slacks in case his bladder gives out. It is a real life view and a fairly heartwarming story of a friendship but where Araton attempts to bring out a poignancy in Berra’s health problems he only brings me depression. A far better Yogi Berra book is one written by the man himself “Yogi: It Ain’t Over” which ends in 1989 and has a much more positive tone.

Not even good at cheating

  I haven’t written much about the Yankees this year and for good reason: there just hasn’t been much to write about. Despite a 200 MILLION DOLLAR payroll, the Yankees have limped along at a mediocre .500 pace for much of the year. It was expected that the team would struggle with $84 million dollars in payroll starting the year on the disabled list (Jeter – $17M, Alex Rodriguez - $29M, Teixeria - $23M, Granderson - $15M), but the team managed to get off to a good start and was in first place in mid-May with a 25-14 record thanks to the hot starts of GM Brian Cashman’s acquisitions of unwanted veterans Travis Hafner, Lyle Overbay, Kevin Youkillis, and Vernon Wells. Unfortunately this quartet showed in May, June, and July why they were unwanted in the first place when their home run production all but disappeared and the Yankees have scored more runs than only 5 other major league teams.

  The relief pitching has outstanding with the ageless Mariano Rivera and David Rovertson, but the starting pitching has been spotty at best. Kuroda has been worth every penny of his 15 MILLION dollar salary, but CC Sabathia's 23 MILLION dollar salary has produced the performance worthy of a has-been pitcher and while 41 year old Any Pettitte has pitched well for a 41 year old pitcher he is still 41 years old and he has not pitched well in absolute terms.

  Granderson and Jeter have recently returned from the disabled list and even though Jeter has had to be disabled twice since his return there may be hope for a late season resurgence to sneak into the expanded playoffs. Even with the injuries it is pathetic to see the Yankees trailing teams like the Athletics, Royals, and Indians who spend less than a third of what the Yankees do on players. The injury filled season has given a glimpse into the Yankee minor league farm system and from all appearances the cupboard is bare. Of all the position players brought up, only Zoilo Almonte has shown the ability to be a hitter at the major league level. While the high payroll teams have to pay a ‘luxury tax’ for every dollar over the threshold, there is no limit on how much a team can pay to develop minor league talent and it is a telling indictment of the Yankees that they have no minor league help available and have to get high priced has-been talent to fill gaps while teams like the Athletics and Pirates can have winning teams without big name talent and the other mega payroll team (the LA Dodgers) had their season rescued from the brink of disaster by the arrival of the relatively low-priced Cuban defector ($42 million over seven years) Yasiel Puig from their minor league system.

  Alex Rodriguez has been due to return to the Yankees for over a month but the Yankees have been in no hurry to have the former slugger join the team even as desperate as they are for offense. 2 weeks ago, while the Yankee team physician diagnosed A-Rod with a strained quad, his personal physician denied there was an injury of any sort. He did make his season debut on Monday and singled in the Yankees 8-1 loss to the White Sox, which was a costly victory beyond the standings. If A-Rod could have been held out of the entire season due to injury, the Yankees insurance policy would pay his hefty salary. Once he took the field the Yankees were responsible for this years $29 million. Given his declining regular season production (34 home runs combined in 221 games in 2011-12 after 12 straight seasons of 30+ homers) and consistently pathetic postseason efforts (hitting less than .200 with zero home runs in the Yankees last 4 postseason series over 3 years) the Yankees would probably feel lucky if A-Rod retired due to his injuries and let the insurance company pay the remaining $114 MILLION on his contract.

  The Yankees may be off the hook for much of A-Rod’s salary anyway since he has become the central figure in the ‘Biogenesis’ scandal in which the Florida based business’ clinic records were revealed showing the company was involved in the business of selling Human Growth Hormone to at least 20 major league baseball players. 2011 NL MVP Ryan Braun had his 2012 suspension for excessive testosterone levels set aside when the corier stored his samples in his home refrigerator for a weekend. At the time, Braun loudly proclaimed his innocence (“This is all B.S. I am completely innocent.”), but after he was linked to the Biogenesis company he was suspended for 65 games he now said ‘I realize now that I have made some mistakes’, foremost among those mistakes getting caught.

  Rodriguez’s infractions are even more serious. In 2009, he admitted to using steroids from 2001 to 2003 and was largely forgiven, so these new allegations that he’s used steroids every year since 2009 have led to calls for his punishment to be harsher. But on top of merely ingesting illegal substances there are also allegations that he tried to impede the investigation by attempting to purchase evidence that would be used against him. Rodriguez’s representatives have gone from threatening to sue MLB if they suspend A-Rod to negotiating the length of the suspension. The Yankees will save around $300,000 for every game that Rodriguez is suspended and I think they are secretly hoping for a lifetime ban, especially since he seems through as a player.

  The Yankees are well represented on the list of players linked to the Biogenesis scandal. Bartolo Colon resurrected his career with the Yankees in 2011 after missing the entire 2010 season. Jesus Montero was the jewel of the Yankee farm system before being traded to Seattle last year for Michael Pineda (who has yet to wear the pinstripes). Francisco Cervelli hit .298 as a backup catcher for the 2009 championship team. Melky Cabrera was a regular on the 2009 championship team who was subsequently played for 5 teams in 5 years and was leading the National League in hitting in 2012 before being suspended for using performance enhancing drugs. Is it a coincidence that so many players linked to the Biogenesis scandal have associations with the Yankees? Probably not. After all Roger Clemens was an accused steroid user when he was with the Yankees and Andy Pettitte admitted to using HGH as Clemens’s teammate with the Astros in 2004.

  I would have hoped that with all these cheating going on around the Yankees would have led to more than one world championship in the past 12 years, but this is indicative of their deep seated organizational problems. While the Yankees are great at spending more money than any other team for players for their stars and their band-aid replacements like Wells ($24 million) and Youkilis ($12 million) with luxury tax penalties on top of their payroll, they can’t find a way to efficiently spend money on a farm system to provide adequate replacements or even help their players discreetly take their HGH and PEDs without getting caught in order to remain top performers.

A High Level

  Major League Baseball has so far gotten everything they could have asked for in the 2012 playoffs. First there were the 2 one-and-done wild card games. Then every first round playoff series went to the maximum 5 games. This feat required 6 games to be won by the team facing elimination. Not only do the longer series lead to more revenue for the MLB broadcast partners, it allows the casual viewers the chance to get a good look at the playoff teams that will be competing for the chance to go to the World Series. This should lead to better ratings for the remainder of the postseason.

  The Yankees barely held off the surprising Baltimore Orioles for the division title and they barely managed to barely hold off the pesky Birds in the divisional playoff series. I didn’t expect runs to be as hard to come by as they were in this series. The Yankees averaged 5 runs a game and the Orioles 4.5 runs this year. But after the Yankees seven run outburst in the first game, no team scored 4 runs in any of the next 4 games (which included games of 12 and 13 innings).

  Aside from the stellar pitching on both sides, the biggest story of the Yankees-Orioles series was manager Joe Girardi pinch-hitting for Alex Rodriguez in game 3 of the series and benching him altogether in the decisive game 5. The game 3 decision made Girardi look like a genius when pinch hitter Raul Ibanez hit the game tying ninth inning home run and a game winning home run in the twelfth inning. In Game 4, Rodriguez was hitting in the eighth inning with one out and runners on second and third in a tie game against the Orioles underhand pitcher Darren O’Day. Rodriguez not only failed to drive the winning run home, he failed hit a fair ball, he failed to even hit a foul ball. He took 3 swings and failed to even come close to even hitting a ball and then he went back to the bench.

  If Rodriguez had driven in the run in the eighth inning, the Yankees would likely have won the series in four games and had a day off with a rested CC Sabathia to take on the Tigers last night. Instead, Andy Pettite had to take the hill for the Yankees. Pettite pitched well enough but the Yankees were still losing 4-0 going into the ninth. Rodriguez left 6 men on base before being taken out of the game for Eric Chavez, the same player who replaced him against the Orioles. Chavez hasn’t been an improvement, going 0-8 with 4 strikeouts in this year’s playoffs.

  The Yankees came back against Tiger closer Valverde to tie the score at 4, but that turned out to be a silver cloud with a very dark lining when Hall of Fame shortstop Derek Jeter fractured his ankle in the 12th inning and the Yankees lot to the Tigers anyway.

  I think the Yankees can beat the Tigers even without Jeter. Jayson Nix is an adequate shortstop and hit the ball hard against the Orioles. If the Yankees can get any production from third base to make up for the loss of Jeter they can still take the series. Jeter’s replacement Eduardo Nunez is a poor fielder but is probably the best offensive option at this point.

  Rodriguez’s fall from grace has been stunning. His slugging percentage has decreased every year since 2007. 2 years ago he had 613 career home runs and at the age of 34 seemed like a lock to pass Barry Bonds 762 steroid-aided home run record (Rodriguez is an admitted steroid user). But he has only hit 34 homers in the last 2 years to sit at 647 and unless he gets back on the ‘roids again doesn’t seem to have a chance.

  Speaking of performance enhancing drugs, I wonder if it is only a coincidence that 2 of the high profile steroid suspensions in baseball this year had Yankee connections? Melky Cabrera was a Yankee from 2005 to 2009 and never hit more than .280. This year he was leading the National League with a .346 average when he was suspended for 50 games by testing positive for excessive testosterone.

  Bartolo Colon was out of baseball in 2010, but resurrected his career with the Yankees in 2011 at the age of 38, going 8-10 with a respectable 4.00 ERA with a 10 year high in strikeouts per 9 innings (7.4). Colon signed as a free agent with the Oakland A’s in 2012 and had a 10-9 record with a 3.43. Colon’s comeback was attributed to an unusual stem cell injection into his elbow and shoulder, but that theory was thrown into question when Colon was suspended for 50 games by major league baseball when a drug test revealed excessive testosterone in his system.

  I see a lot of ads on TV for how testosterone will make feel like I did when I was younger (Here is a sample), but none of them ever said they would help me lead the National League in hitting or land a contract as a pitcher with a major league baseball team. I haven’t tried any of these products and don’t know anyone who has, but I think that Yankee manager Joe Girardi may be a user. No matter how badly Alex Rodriguez has been playing, pinch hitting for a 30 million dollar player and then benching him in an elimination game is surely the sign of excessive testosterone!

Talking Baseball 2012

  On July 18th, the Yankees had a record of 57-34 and a 10 game lead on the rest of the division, as well as a 10 game lead in the race for the 5th best record in the league. The playoffs seemed assured but the Yankees have been worse than a .500 team since that record of July 18th and entering today’s action are tied with the Baltimore Orioles for the division lead with a record of 78-61 and just 2 games ahead of the Rays and Angels for the last playoff spot.

  The Yankees have a favorable schedule over the last 4 weeks of the season with only 7 games against the other playoff contenders (today’s game at Baltimore and 3 home games against the Rays and A’s), but the way they have been playing nothing can be taken for granted. The Yankees have had their share of injuries and coped well with most of them. Eric Chavez has been putting up numbers close to his days as an all-star 3rd basemen with the Oakland A’s in place of Alex Rodriguez, closer Soriano has been almost as good as the irreplaceable Mariano Rivera, and the mid-season pickup of Ichiro Suzuki has been made the loss of Brett Gardner a non-issue. The injuries to the starting pitchers have exposed what was already a weakness. Michael Pineda, the big off-season pickup was lost for the year in training camp, whatever value 39-year old Andy Pettite was going to bring to the table went by the boards with his broken ankle in June, and CC Sabathia’s has been on and off the injured list for the first time in his Yankee career (I’m surprised it hasn’t happened before given his extra weight). Ivan Nova has regressed from last year and is now hurt while Phil Hughes and high-priced free agent Kuroda alternate excellent games with poor performances. Freddie Garcia has performed about as well as expected but expecting him to anchor the rotation is a bit much to ask at this stage in his career. I was hoping Derek Lowe might be able to fill in as a spot starter, but he has shown very little in his limited action. It’s possible that the Yankees can sneak into the playoffs, Sabathia, Hughes, and Kuroda all go on a hot streak, and another World Series championship makes its way to the Bronx, but as inconsistent as the starters have been this year, I'm not expecting to have to dip into my piggy bank for a championship t-shirt and cap this year.

  I’m more of a Yankee fan than a baseball fan so I haven’t been following the day to day operations of the rest of the league, but one of the stories that caught my eye is the attempt of the Pittsburgh Pirates to have their first winning season since 1992. On August 8th, the Pirates had a record of 63-47 and only needed to go 19-33 the rest of the way to get to the 82 wins needed to ensure a winning record. Today the Pirates stand at 72-66 and now need a record of 10-14 to get to their promised land. I don’t know if the Pirates can find a way to get a winning record or even sneak into the playoffs (they are currently tied with the Dodgers a game behind the Cardinals for the fifth and final wild card spot), but if they do I have to say it’s about time. They are on pace to draw more than 2 million fans for the first time since their new ballpark opened in 2001 so the fans are showing that they will support a winner. The Pirates have consistently sold off any player of promise for the last decade but they may finally have a franchise building block in 26 year old outfielder Andrew McCutchen. If the Pirates can get into the playoffs, then there’ll be even less of an excuse for the Midwest most futile team, the Kansas City Royals to not have a winning team. The Royals last winning record was in 2003 and while they have had 2 winning records in the last 20 years, they’ve also lost 100 games 4 times in that span (the Pirates have lost 100 games only once in the last 20 years). The Kansas City fans have even supported their team through this pair of losing decades with over 2 million fans attending games every year since 1988 (except for the strike years of 1994 and 1995). The Royals are run by former Wal-Mart CEO David Glass and while he looks like he is running the operation like a Wal-Mart baseball team by cutting costs, he has continually hired highly regarded baseball minds to run the operation and has made a few free-agent signings, but the free agents and young players never seem to pan out.

  The other baseball story that caught my attention is the implosion of the Boston Red Sox. After firing Terry Francona, the only manager to have won a World Series for them in the last 90 years (and he won 2) for failing to make the playoffs for the second year in a row last year, Theo Epstein, the boy wonder General Manager, left the Red Sox to take over the Chicago Cubs and attempt to break their 100+ years streak of zero World Series championships. After the revelations that the Red Sox players had been lazy and lax under Francona the new Sox GM (Ben Cherington) hired Bobby Valentine as the new manager. Valentine is the polar opposite of Francona and was quick to try to assert his authority by taking on longtime Sox favorite Kevin Youkillis in the media saying that Youkillis had lost his passion for the game. A player revolt nearly ensued and Youkillis was traded to the White Sox in a deal that saw the Red Sox get some utility players in return for paying the bulk of Youkillis’s salary. The Red Sox played better after the trade, but Valentine continued his confrontational ways, causing him to receive the dreaded vote of confidence from ownership, who also claimed that they were trying to still win this year. After dropping hopelessly out of the race with a 6-14 start to August, the Red Sox decided to punt the season and traded a quarter of a billion dollars in payroll (Adrian Gonzalez and Josh Beckett) to the LA Dodgers. Since then, the Sox have gone 4-11 to fall to last place in the division for what could be a long stay in the cellar. The Red Sox hired the wrong manager for their players and don’t want to admit it was a mistake. Instead, they’re getting rid of all the players. There’s still a lot of young talent on this team but Bobby Valentine will alienate every player from the Francona era because that’s what Bobby Valentine does. I expect the Red Sox to get Valentine to quietly resign at the end of the year and use the money they don’t have to pay Gonzalez and Beckett to get some new free agents for 2013, but it pleases me to no end to see an organization that was a hallmark of efficiency and genius turn into a bumbling shell of itself. Because while there is nothing I like to see more than the Yankees win, seeing the Red Sox embarrass themselves comes a close second.

Making Something out of Nothing

  At work on Wednesday I didn’t have any meetings or phone calls so I could just sit at my desk and program. The cubicles in my workplace are arranged so we can ‘collaborate’. I can turn around and see the other 3 people in my cubicle block. This would be great except that while I hardly ever collaborate I can hear everyone else around me collaborate. I get easily distracted, so I normally put earplugs on and listen to my amazing iPod. Sometimes I’ll listen to the Des Moines sports radio station KXNO using the iHeart Radio application, but most of the time I’ll listen to music from the Rhapsody music service I subscribe to. I listen to a lot of different music but this past week I’ve been listening to one of my favorites (along with Johnny Cash), John Lennon. There are some things I hear from his music that I violently disagree with (‘Imagine there’s no heaven’…’God is a concept by which we measure our pain’), but I find so much more in his music that captures a lot of the way I see the world (‘Everybody’s talking but no one says a word’, ‘There’s room at the top they’re telling you still, but first you must learn to smile while you kill’) that I never get tired of listening. It may not be timeless music but it’s my times music.

  On this Wednesday afternoon I didn’t listen to music or sports radio because the Yankees were playing a rare day game (against the Cleveland Indians). Thanks to my mlb.com radio package, I can listen to any baseball game on the internet so I could listen to the Yankee broadcast in WCBS in New York. The big news before the game was Yankee ace pitcher C.C. Sabathia going on the disabled list with a strained groin. After taking a 2-1 lead into the 5th inning of the game starting pitcher Andy Pettitie got hit by a line drive oand left the game which was determined later to be a broken leg. That allowed Yankee broadcasters John Sterling and Suzyn Waldman free leave to discuss how the Yankees would patch up their starting pitching during the dull spots that occur in even the tensest baseball games. The Yankees managed to squeak out a 5-4 win with the Indians having the bases loaded before finally making the last out. It was a great game to listen to not the least because of the outcome.

  Once the Yankee game was over at 3pm, I saw that the Mets were beating the Cubs by a score of 16 to 1 in the 7th inning. I decided to listen in on the Cubs broadcast because broadcasters will talk about anything to avoid talking about the game when their team is losing 16 to 1. The Cubs, who are on their 104th season without a world championship and 68th year without even a world series appearance are spending this season battling the San Diego Padres for the worst record in baseball with 28 wins against 49 losses in their first year under the stewardship of Theo Epstien, the former Boston Red Sox boy genius who was hired away to run the Cubs this past winter. I picked up the game in the top of the 7th inning and play by play man Pat Hughes was talking with Jane Lynch, one of the stars of the TV show ‘Glee’ (which I have never watched, thank you). Lynch was going to sing ‘Take Me Out to the Ball Game’ during the 7th inning stretch and talked about how thrilled she was and how nervous she was about getting the words right since other celebrities have been skewered for not knowing the words to the song (like Ozzy Osbourne did here). Every so often, Hughes would mention if a Met player got a hit or made an out while Lynch was talking and then the inning was over. Lynch sang the song expertly and after some commercials, we were off to the bottom of the 7th. Hughes and his color analyst Keith Moreland talked a bit about how the rest of the game was still really important for the Cub players to ‘get in a good groove’ for future games and show management that they ‘belonged in the big leagues’. Then Hughes discussed Jane Lynch’s theatrical resume, noting she hosted the Emmy’s last year and was in the Three Stooges and also mentioned that she was an animal lover but failing to mention she is in a same sex marriage (I only bring this up because I bet they would have mentioned her husband if she had one).

  Since a Cub had actually reached base, the inning was still going on when Hughes was done with Jane Lynch’s resume, so he switched to telling us about ‘This date in Baseball History’ until the inning was over. Did you know that on June 27th, 1977 Willie McCovey became the first player to hit 2 home runs in an inning twice? Or that on the same day in 1982 the Atlanta Braves tied a major league record with 7 double plays in a 2-0 victory over the Cincinnati Reds? Finally, the inning was over and we went to the 8th with the Mets still leading 16-1.

  In the top of the 8th, Hughes played selections from the late Ron Santo's CD in his series of Baseball’s Geatest Announcers. He played the Santo telling the story of how he couldn’t find his toupee and he wouldn’t leave the hotel room for the game without it until one of the broadcast gofers found it stuck to the bottom of his breakfast tray. By the time that story was over the Mets had 2 runners on and it looked like another big inning, so Hughes switched to baseball trivia and had one of the gofers ask him and Moreland questions. The first one was to see if they could name all 6 Boston Red Sox players who won the rookie of the year. Fred Lynn was identified, but then the Mets hit a double play and ended the inning after getting another run and we went to the bottom of the 8th with the score 17-1. Hughes and Moreland spend the rest of the game guessing all the Red Sox rookies of the year (missing the immortal Don Schwall’s 1961 award), but they were obviously milking the question. Every time they guessed a player that didn’t win the award, they’d spend a batter or so talking about how good they thought the player was and trying to figure out who won the award instead that year. Finally the game was over and the Cubs announcers proceeded with the day’s lowlights and were off the air in 15 minutes.

  Pat Hughes is one of the best baseball broadcasters around and Wednesday’s game was a great example why. There are only 60 major league radio broadcasting jobs around and almost every one of them is filled by a top professional who can make a tense 5-4 game sound exciting, but only the best of the best can fill in 90 minutes and can keep their listeners entertained during a 17-1 pasting as well as Pat Hughes did.

  Inspired by Pat Hughes, I had my own moment of making something out of nothing on Friday as I was heading to work. As I turned off the interstate onto the street where I work, I got stuck behind a driver education car that was going 5 miles an hour, putting their left turn signal on at every opportunity, and slowing to a stop before deciding to continue to the next street or driveway where a left turn could be made. I was only 4 blocks from work and it was taking forever, but I was listing to Travis & Tim on 1460 – KXNO (Des Moines sports radio) and they were having their Friday penalty box segment that allows the users to air their gripes by placing people in the ‘penalty box’. I called the show and ranted about the driver’s education car and put it in the penalty box as well as giving the make, model and license plate of the car. The hosts were giggling when I gave the license plate and told me I had to practice more assertive driving, so I honked my horn and they erupted in laughter (You can listen to it here at the 40 minute mark). I ended up winning a $20 gift certificate to a place called the ‘Chicken Coop’ for having the best penalty box call. I didn’t like getting stuck behind the only driver education car I’ve ever seen at 8am in Des Moines, but I’m happy to have turned the incident into $20 of chicken and I’ll toast student drivers everywhere when I’m eating the free meal they helped me get.

In a Heartbeat

  On Thursday afternoon, Yankee closer and all-time saves leader Mariano Rivera was shagging fly balls in the outfield with the rest of the pitchers as he’s done for the last 15 years and he ran towards the warning track to run down a fly ball. In the time it took Rivera to land after taking his first step on the warning track, his foot got caught between where the outfield grass met the warning track dirt and his season was over with ligament and cartilage damage in his now shredded right knee. In the spring, Rivera had hinted that this was going to be his last season, but now he has publicly declared that he will be back with the Yankees in 2013.

  The Yankees have an all-star to put in the closer spot in David Robertson but the ripple effect of replacing set up man Robertson with 7th inning man Soriano and having to replace the 7th inning man, etc.. may be the final blow for what is looking to be an injury plagued year for the pitching staff. After missing half of 2011 with injuries, Phil Hughes is pitching even worse this year. He claimed to have had his ‘best stuff’ of the season in a 7-1 loss to Baltimore where he couldn’t even get out of the 6th inning after giving up 4 run in 5+ innings of work. The big trade acquisition from Seattle, Michael Pineda is already gone for the year with a torn shoulder muscle, free agent Kuroda has pitched just well enough to lose, and Freddie Garcia has already been banished to the bullpen. Help is on the way in the return of Andy Pettite from retirement, but at the age of 39 and after a year off he probably won’t be able to offer much except as a mentor to the younger pitchers. This edition of the Yankees looks a lot like last years: enough offense to get to the playoffs and not enough pitching to win them.

  Last Saturday in the opening game of the NBA playoffs, Chicago Bulls superstar Derrick Rose was close to a triple-double while leading his team to a double digit win over the Philadelphia 76ers when he drove the lane with less than 2 minutes left in the game, passed to a teammate, and crumpled to the ground with a torn ligament in his knee. Rose had missed over a third of the 66 game schedule with toe, groin, and back ailments and the Bulls responded by going 18-9 (including wins over playoff teams like the Heat and Celtics) when playing without the league’s reigning MVP to gain the league’s best record and home court advantage throughout the playoffs.

  Even though the Bulls had proven during the season that they can win without their leader, they’ve lost the last 2 games to the 76ers to fall into a 2-1 hole. I think the Bulls were playing well without Rose because they knew he would be back for the playoffs and wanted to get the best playoff seeding possible, but now that he is gone for the season the team does not believe they can win the championship and so cannot summon the same effort as before.

  Rivera and Rose’s (and their teams) fortunes took a sudden turn in less than a heartbeat. Because of the inordinate attention given to sports, my attention is drawn to these sudden changes but they happen in the real world all the time with huge consequences. One New Year’s Eve, a very close friend was driving home from work when a drunk driver made a sudden left hand turn on a 5 lane stretch of I-80 in New Jersey and crashed into the divider and with no time to react, my friend broadsided him a second later. The drunk driver walked away unscathed, but while the seat belt held my friends body in place, his arm exploded out of his shoulder socket and he never regained full use of his arm. He went through months of rehab, was let go from his job and had to start large parts of his life all over. His life changed the moment that drunk swerved into the divider in front of him.

  The most meaningful heartbeat moment I’ve ever had came in early 1999. I was under unbelievable pressure at work over a project that the company I was working for had staked its future on but was having one show stopping problem in a number of test sites. I went 2 months not being able to sleep more than 2 hours at a time. I was a smoker back then and when I’d wake up, I’d take my dogs Queenie and Tuffy out to the backyard and have a smoke. This one day in February, when I went to light up, I felt the hand of Jesus on my shoulder telling me I didn’t need that cigarette and everything was going to work out OK. I wasn’t praying for an answer to my problems or anything; I was just getting a smoke. But that’s the day I stopped smoking and I can’t say I’ve looked at anything the same way since. I’m not saying I’m a better person now because I’m still the same mess I’ve always been and I’m still a work in progress as are we all. All I’m saying is in that moment my life turned in a new direction and I’ve had a new way of looking at life. I’ve heard similar stories from a lot of other people and I know I’m not the only one who’s undergone this particular experience and while I used to be skeptical of these stories, now when I hear them, I just nod my head because I get it.

 
Matt Kriegel (left)
2012 Iowa Class C Champion!

  I did have another heartbeat moment last Thursday Night at our blitz tournament. I had previously written how after having 11 wins and 1 draw in my first 12 encounters with Matt Kriegel from Tama, I had struggled to a draw and a loss in our 2 encounters in April. Matt had also beaten Jaleb (who is at least equal to me in chess strength) in their only April match. Last Saturday, Matt won the Iowa Class C Championship with 3 wins and one draw in 4 games, beating Bethany Carson in the first round (Click here to read Bethany's account of the tournament on her excellent blog.). In honor of Matt taking over the Marshalltown chess club in April, I’ve taken to referring him as ‘The Krieginator’ since he has been as unstoppable as Arnold was in the ‘Terminator’ movies. Matt came by again last Thursday and showed us his championship trophy and games from the Class Championships. His game against Bethany was pretty impressive, winning a piece with a nice tactic and smoothly grinding out the win from there with some cool tactics enabling him to trade pieces whenever it looked as if Bethany was going to get back into the game. His second and third round games were equally impressive and he will return this week to show us his final round game.

  When it got to be 6, we started the tournament. Since there were 7 players, I’d normally have not played but Jaleb decided to take the week off and allow me the chance to play. I beat Scott in the first game and got an undeserved win against my fellow Marshalltown coach Jon McCord when he hung a piece in a position where he was a pawn up and had completely outplayed me. Meanwhile Matt had given up an unexpected draw to Chandler, the high school student who helps me with my youth tournaments and beat Seth, the new 9 year old player at the club. I was leading Matt and Chandler by half a point heading to the final round and had the Black pieces against Matt.

pgn4web chessboard courtesy of pgn4web.casaschi.net

  It was a fun and topsy-turvy game with each of us having our chances, but after 26.Re1 it was over in a heartbeat.

Baseball is Back

  Spring is here and a new baseball season is on the way. I was hoping after last year’s disappointing playoff loss to the Tigers, the Yankees would upgrade their starting pitching and outfielders and they’ve met my hopes halfway. The outfield looks the same as last year excepting the addition of free agent Raul Ibanez from the Phillies. Ibanez is coming off his worst year since becoming a full time player in 2002 and since will turn 40 in June, I can’t see how he is going to reclaim his hitting prowess. At best, I expect Ibanez to be a useful left handed DH off the bench to replace the retired Jorge Posada and could be productive as a part time player, but the fact that the Yankees didn't sign any big money free agents or make any trade deadline deals last year makes me wonder if the Sons of Steinbrenner are going to be willing to settle for occasional playoff runs and line their pockets with the franchise's profits instead of trying for championships.

  The starting pitching was significantly revamped with the subtraction of A.J. Burnett and the additions of 37 year old Hiroki Kuroda from the Dodgers, 23 year old Michael Pineda from the Mariners, and 39 year old Andy Pettitte from retirement. Kuroda ($11 Million) and Pettitte (a minor league contract) came cheap, but Pineda represented a major gamble because he cost potential once in a generation slugger Jesus Montero. Montero is a 22 year old slugging catcher who showed a lot of power in limited playing time in New York last year. There’s some questioning whether Montero will ever be a capable major league catcher, but no question about his bat. Pineda has a 99 mph fastball and struck out a batter an inning in his rookie season last year, but the Yankees record in keeping young pitchers healthy is highly suspect (Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes) and already Pineda will start this season on the disabled list with tendonitis in his shoulder. Yankee GM Brian Cashman has been a conservative trader in the past so I’m willing to give him the benefit of a doubt on this out of character Pineda deal. Old-timers Kuroda, Pettitte, and Freddie Garcia should be enough help for ace CC Sabathia to get the Yankees to the playoffs, but in order to win the championship, top shelf pitching is needed and Pineda has the potential to be a once in a generation pitcher if his arm and head can handle the stress of pitching for the Yankees.

  The Yankees should be able to win the American League East division again this year as the competition has fallen off a bit. The pesky Tampa Bay Devil Rays have lost some veteran players and aren’t inclined to spend any money on free agents, relying instead on their excellent farm system to keep the major league roster stocked with talent. This strategy seems to work for about 5 years until the farm system runs dry and the success of the major leage teams leads to low drafting position. Tampa Bay has had poor draft positions for the last 5 years and I think their run is nearing an end unless they decide to spend some of their money to keep their star players. The filthy Red Sox fired the only manager in the last 90 years to win a World Series and then their genius General Manager, Theo Epstein, bolted for the Cubs. The Red Sox upper management were stung by reports of the players having chicken and beer parties in the clubhouse during games at the end of last season and reacted by hiring disciplinarian Bobby Valentine to manage the team. Valentine has had reasonable success as a manager including taking the Mets to the playoffs in 1999 and a World Series appearance in 2000. The Red Sox look to be starting the year with ace pitcher Josh Beckett and new closer Andrew Baily on the injured list. That’s good news for this Yankee fan, since a slow Red Sox start may cause the veteran-laden team to revolt against their new manager.

  The Yankees other rivals for the American League pennant have spent millions of dollars to improve themselves this offseason. The 2 time league champion Texas Rangers have spent $51 million to acquire Yu Darvish from the Japanese leagues and then signed him to a modest $60 million 6 year contract, while the California Angels paid $240 million for 10 years of Albert Pujols’ services and the Detroit Tigers paid $214 for 9 years of slugger Prince Fielder. All the free spending has led the Cincinnati Reds to sign the 2010 MVP Joey Votto to a 10 year $220 million deal, which will now be the new benchmark for young sluggers. 2011 MVP Ryan Braun of the Milwaukee Brewers hasn’t signed to a long term deal, but he barely escaped a 50 game suspension for having his testosterone level 20 times normal on his drug test when the Fed Ex office was closed and the sample sat in the testers refrigerator for the weekend. Braun will have to prove his impressive statistics over the past few years weren’t a product of chemistry before he cashes in. The explosion in free agent spending has also been generous to pitchers with the Giant’s Matt Cain being rewarded for last year’s 12-11 record with a $100 million dollar 5 year contract extension.

  As a Yankee fan, I know that the biggest payroll doesn’t equal World Championships, but I can understand both the Angels and Tigers big money payouts. The Angels will likely be overpaying Pujols over the last half of his contract, but they should be able to sell out their stadium and have expectations of a championship in the short term. They’ll also get the publicity benefits of Pujols 500th and 600th home runs and if Pujols is really 32 years old (players from the Dominican Republic tend to lose a few years off their age when trying to get to the major leagues) he should be able to make a run at Hank Aaron’s steroid free home run record of 756 and Barry Bonds drug aided 762 homers.

  The Tigers purchase of Fielder is the sign of a team with a rich owner (Little Ceasers magnate Mike Illitch) trying to get over the top after last years near miss, but I can see this particular purchase backfiring. The Tiger’s home park is less hitter friendly than Miller Park in Milwaukee so I expect Fielder’s power numbers to suffer and if his self-image is tied too closely to being one of the league leaders in home runs, he might become an all or nothing slugger in his quest to overcome the large dimensions at Comerica Stadium in Detroit. While Fielder is young, he also weighs 275 pounds. The massive sluggers that remind me of Fielder are Mo Vaughn and Fielder’s dad Cecil. Both men’s careers were effectively over at the age of 32, possibly from carrying way too much weight. Fielder is only 27 so the Tigers can rightly expect to have at least a few years of top-flight play from their new first baseman.

  Major League Baseball added a fifth playoff team this year so now the 2 teams that don’t win their division will play each other in a one game playoff to continue on in the playoffs. The assumption is that the extra game will provide the television ratings and excitement that were provided by last year’s regular season end, when the final playoff team in each league wasn’t settled until the final plays of the Baltimore-Boston and Atlanta-Philadelphia games. What the baseball decision makers forget is that drama can’t be manufactured and if the same scenario as last year played out, there would be no drama in the end of the regular season because all the affected teams would have clinched their playoff berths.

  Baseball still has the fewest teams of all the major sports making the playoffs (10 vs. 12 for football and 16 for basketball), but it also has by far the longest season. The extra playoff team will no doubt give an extra few weeks hope for perennial losers like the Royals and Pirates that they can somehow claw their way into the playoffs as the last team but the end result will be to allow big money teams like the Red Sox, Tigers, Angels, Phillies, and yes the Yankees another opportunity to get into the playoffs on an occasional off year. At some point the novelty of the play-in game will lose its luster and baseball will take the next step in rendering the longest regular season in all sports more meaningless by expanding the playoffs yet again. I expect the Yankees to be able to get in the playoffs with at least the 5th best record in the league and then there postseason fate will come down to whether the Pineda gamble has given them a second stud to go along with Sabathia.

How I Spent My Birthday

  My birthday was yesterday, but it really started on Thursday when I got home from work and was greeted by birthday cards from both sets of my parents-in-law. I went to chess club as usual and lost to Dave the barefoot chess player in a uniquely pathetic performance, but I did get a present in the return to the club of Scott after 6 months spent watching his son’s Thursday cross country meets and starting his own business. Scott is a mental health counselor and his business is called ‘In Perspective’ and it was great to see him back playing chess. I played him in the third round of the tournament and while I did beat him, I can tell he’s been studying and has made a lot of improvement.

  I went home after club, ate dinner, took care of a batch of emails, and checked on a project at work remotely all the while keeping an eye on the 5th and final game of the Yankees-Tigers series. Young gun Ivan Nova gave up 2 home runs in the first inning and that kept the Detroit pitcher Fister from feeling too much pressure and he cruised along till the 4th inning when the Yanks loaded the bases with one out. Fister proceeded to get Martin out on a popup and struck out Gardner to keep the 2-0 lead. Girardi kept switching pitchers like a drunken sailor, but except for CC Sabathia giving up a 5th inning run, the relievers kept the Tigers from scoring any more runs. Cano hit a homer to get the score to 3-1 and then the Yankees loaded the bases in the 7th inning with one out and big hitters Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira up. Rodriguez struck out, but Teixeira got a walk to force in a run, but Swisher struck out and the Yankees were still losing 3-2. They never mounted another challenge after that and lost the game 3 runs to 2 and the series 3 games to 2.

  There is a tendency to blame Rodriguez for striking out 3 times in such a big game, but there’s enough blame to go around. The Yankees outscored the Tigers 28 to 17 in the series, but the Tigers played better in the clutch and won all 3 games in the series that were close. I’m not saying the Yankees choked, but Soriano giving up the game winning home run in Game 3 and the bad at-bats with the bases loaded in Game 5 give that impression. Without his steroids, A-Rod is breaking down and better hitting replacements for Swisher and Martin are needed. Another top-line starting pitcher would be nice. The Yankees did accomplish some good things this year. Granderson has attained near-superstar status, Robertson has shown he may be able to replace the great Rivera, and if Nova doesn’t get hurt he will be a mainstay in the rotation for years to come. BUT, with the Yankees any year without a championship is a year wasted and a 200 million dollar payroll down the drain. As for the Tiger facing last year’s Yankee conquering Texas Rangers, I’ll be positive and say how glad I am that at least one of those teams will lose their next series.

Busy day at the
St. Francis Chess Club!              

  On Friday, I went to St. Francis in West Des Moines for my 5th chess class of the year. We have over 50 kids signed up and a high of 58 attending last week. The beginners are starting to play more or less complete games and 25 players are competing in a ladder tournament each week. I’ve got a couple of great parent helpers which allows me to go to each group and answer questions and give some quick instruction. I’ve had a few dropouts but many of the parents have written to me to tell me how their kids look forward to chess club on Fridays. This makes me feel great because my main goal is to instill a love of the game and show the kids how to have fun whether they win or lose.

Mmm..almond bars!

  After the club was over I hustled across town to work, where there was an email saying it was my birthday tomorrow and Sarah had baked some almond bars for everyone to eat. It is a tradition at this job to have someone bring in treats to celebrate every birthday. The almond bars were great and a lot of people offered their condolences about the Yankees, although there seem to be a lot Cub fans who didn’t seem very sincere. I understand that since you would have to be 103 years old to say you were alive when the Cubs were world champions. I worked, went home, walked the dogs with Kathy, ate some of the special corned beef she cooked for me for my birthday, took care of another batch of emails, watched a little TV, and got a good night sleep to get ready for a busy birthday day.

  Yesterday morning at 6:30, I headed to West Des Moines for my monthly youth chess tournament after walking Daisy and Baxter to the Jiffy for a beef stick treat with Kathy. Normally, I wouldn’t have had a tournament on my birthday, but October 8th had been designated as National Chess Day. Last year at this time, I held a free IASCA qualifying tournament in Marshalltown and got some nice publicity on the USCF website when I submitted my story about the tournament. I inquired with the IASCA clearinghouse about having the same tournament again this year without competition. One of the board members said he had already scheduled an event in Cedar Rapids on that weekend. Tournaments in Marshalltown don’t work very well against competing tournaments, so I stopped planning the Marshalltown tournament and instead scheduled my monthly tournament at St. Francis for National Chess Day.

  I got the tournament date secured and then my friend David Coppedge from Marietta, GA had me do some computer work for him and paid me enough to allow me to offer a free tournament again like last year. I kept the same format I had last month; morning and afternoon tournaments for USCF members and non USCF members, very few trophies but medals for everyone. I started advertising a month ago, sent my emails out 2 weeks ago and was looking at 15 entries last Sunday. I was not too concerned since this happens every month. Most tournaments make the parents commit at least a few days in advance to receive a pre-registration discount, but I say anyone who sends me an email at least the day before is pre-registered. Making it so easy on the parents to sign up can make it hard on me if I choose to worry about how many players I have, but I’ve learned to stop worrying about how many people will come to my tournaments as long as I’ve done everything I can do to. As the week went on, I got a lot of signups from the tournament regulars, kids from the schools where Jose Gatica teaches, some of the Ames chess clubs, and some players from Lee Cole’s club. Add in 20 or so of the kids I’m working with at St. Francis and by Friday night I had over 70 signups.

  I had some no shows, but there were 67 players at the chess board at some point during the day. I brought high school student Chandler from Marshalltown to help set up and one of the players from Stillwell Junior High came an hour early to help so we had 40 boards up and ready by 9. It was a good thing I had extra help, because I had made a mess of the trophies. I ordered them months ago and looked at them, but as I put them out today I saw that the labels all said WDM National Chess Day – October 8th, 1960. What a maroon! I entered my birthday instead of the actual date when I ordered the trophies. I 'Sharpied' out the 1960, printed 2011 on some clear labels, and found I had no scissors and my knife wasn’t sharp enough to cut the labels. Bondurant chess coach Craig Kinrade went out and got me a pair of scissors and a Mountain Dew and even put the new year on the trophies for me. The trophy winners got a big kick out of the stupid date on the trophies once they heard the story, so it wasn’t as big a deal as I originally thought.

  The tournament was great. I was determined to have a good time and nothing was going to stop me from having one. A lot of kids were beginners playing in their first tournament. They needed a lot of help going over the rules, but there weren’t a lot of arguments either. I had at least 20 parents tell me that they were happy the tournament was only in the morning because the kids had another activity in the afternoon that would have prevented them from coming to an all day event. I got to spend some time with the parents but pretty much had to keep an eye on the beginner’s games.

I can't remember seeing
a happier face than Will's
after pulling off this
cool-looking checkmate.

  There were a lot more issues in the afternoon session. One player in particular kept accusing his opponent of cheating by moving the pieces around. Luckily, that player that had been accused was writing the moves down and I could use that to verify the position on the board was accurate. I talked to the upset player and the mother and suggested it would be a good idea if he wrote his moves down also to be able to prove any accusations. He won his last 2 games, but to my surprise did write down the moves, which is more than I was able to get the kids who had come to the summer chess camp to do during the tournament. My other big problem was with the medals. Having the inserts printed for me is very expensive and I have to order a minimum of 100 at a time, so to keep costs down I’ve been buying blank medals in bulk and printing and applying the insert label stickers myself. A couple of the kids discovered that they could just scrape the ink off the label and started destroying their medals and then some other started scratching their medals just to see if they could, stopping when they had put an ugly scrape through their medal. Kids! By the end of the afternoon tournament, a lot of the kids wanted new medals. I traded out the ones I could and put new inserts in some others, but I need to come up with a way to scratch proof the inserts.

  I hope I’ll see a lot of the new players continue tournament chess, but a lot of them expected to win all their games because they can beat their parents or uncle. These players had a good time and hopefully made some new friends, but now that they saw that there are plenty of other kids who are their equal or better at chess many of them will stay away from tournaments. I can’t control that, but I’m very happy that I was able to put on a free tournament and provide a few hours of chess for anyone who cared to play. The tournament wasn’t perfect (they rarely are), but it was a great tournament that got a lot of kids exposed to chess.

  After the tournament was over, my friend from work Shashi came to the site with a friend of his and his friend’s 2 daughters. Shashi’s birthday was also yesterday and he was spending it with his friends’ family since he has no family in the area. We spent an hour or so playing chess with the girls (they knew most of the rules) and a couple of the players from Ames who wandered back in after playing in the nearby playground. I left a little before 5, was walking the beagles by 6:15, and had the tournament rated, pictures uploaded, and all my articles written by 9pm. I got to unwrap my presents, but never found the time to eat my birthday cake.

The birthday haul: Cards, a Batman T-shirt, the new Joel Osteen book, the coveted Pen-Cam for better blogging, and a sampler of the BEST candy ever, ZOTZ!

  I got up this morning at 4:30, Kathy and I walked the dogs to the Jiffy for a beef stick treat at 5, and we finally ate some of my birthday cake at 8 this morning. My Sister-in-law Megan made me a facebook pictorial of her visit to the Waffle House in honor of my birthday and I had a great time looking at that and remembering the taste of scattered smothered and covered Waffle House hash browns.

  Except for our traditional celebratory meal where I get to pick where we go to, my 51st birthday is over. The first 51 years have been OK and I had a great start on the next 51 with my most attended tournament since I started my Des Moines metro scholastic program and a great birthday to boot. I’ve got a bagful of new ideas I’m itching to try out and if the coveted pocket pen camera I got for my birthday is half as good as it’s cracked up to be, I’ll have the potential for great blog material whenever I step outside.

Say Goodbye

  Terry Francona was dismissed as the manager of the Boston Red Sox this week. Francona is the only Red Sox manager in the last 90 years to have won a World Series and he won two of them, but when the Red Sox collapsed and not only lost the division to the Yankees but failed to get into the playoffs for the second year in a row, the world championships didn’t matter anymore and the Red Sox didn’t pick up Francona’s option and will look for another manager.

  I don’t know how the manager change will work out, but I think the Red Sox have made the right choice in letting their manager go. At the end of August, the Red Sox had a 1 game lead on the Yankees for the Eastern Division lead, but went 7-20 the rest of the way and finished 7 games behind the Yankees and a game behind the Rays for the playoff spot reserved for the ‘best loser’ that doesn’t win their division.

  The media is generally down on the Red Sox for making the move, but I think it should have been done even if the Red Sox had made the playoffs unless they managed to get to the World Series. This is a team that hasn’t won it’s division in 4 years or a playoff series in 3 and despite their home grown talent of Ellsbury, Predroria, Buchholtz and Papelbon, the Red Sox had a payroll this year of 161 MILLION DOLLARS, third in the majors behind the Phillies(172 Million) and you guessed it, the Yankees (202 Million). For that kind of money, the people running the Red Sox have a right to expect more than they have been getting. I thought the Yankees should have gotten rid of Torre after the 2004 collapse against the Red Sox instead of wasting 3 years hoping that Torre could recapture his old magic.

  Francona should have his pick of jobs and if nothing suits him, he can be a talking head on TV until a job opens up that he likes. In Boston, all eyes are now on boy wonder GM Theo Epstein. This year, Epstein won the right to pay top free agent Adrian Gonzalez and he had a very good if not great year, but his other big pick up (outfielder Carl Crawford was awful), there is no catcher, and the starting pitchers all were hurt at some point during the season except for last year’s free agent pickup John Lackey, who was so bad that the Sox fans were hoping he’d get hurt. If Epstein whiffs on his next managerial hire and batch of free agents, he could be the next to go.

  I wasn’t sad to see the Yankees game against the Tigers get rained out Friday since it meant saying good bye to facing Tiger stud pitcher Justin Verlander and his 100 mile and hour fastball and no-hitter potential twice in this series and if it does goes to 5 games the Yankees will only have to contend twice with 6’8” Doug Fister. Fister was very effective after being picked up from Seattle earlier this year, but he is no Justin Verlander and the Yankees finally got to him in the 6th inning of yesterday's game to take a 1-0 lead in the series behind the stellar pitching of young gun Ivan Nova, who is turning out to be the pitcher that Phil Hughes should have been. All in all, the rainout was a good deal for the Yanks, with the only downside that instead of Sabathia pitching twice, we may have to see A.J. Burnett pitching in the playoff series. I hope Yankee manager Girardi comes to his senses and leaves Burnett on the bench.

  Also saying goodbye is 92 year old Andy Rooney, who will be making his last regular appearance on 60 Minutes this weekend. I don’t watch 60 minutes very much, but I’ve caught Rooney’s 2 or 3 minute show-closing monologues on Yahoo or YouTube in bursts of 10 or 20 for years . Rooney has come in for a lot of ridicule and caricature for the style of his monologues, but I’ve always found them thought provoking and enjoyable. I’ve read most of his books of collected articles, and also enjoy reading his column in the Marshalltown Sunday paper. I like that he says what’s on his mind without a lot of fluff and by the end of his TV bit or article, I know exactly what he thinks and where he stands.

  I’m not an aspiring writer, but I write as a hobby and Rooney has been a big influence on whatever style I may possess. One thing I noticed is that Rooney very rarely uses adjectives or adverbs. (see for yourself). He makes the story so that he doesn’t have to waste words describing the words he does use. After I’m done writing my post, I read it over once again and end up stripping out almost all the adjectives and adverbs and I think I have better posts for it. I’ll miss Rooney and I hope he’s not retiring because he’s sick or dying. It’s pretty cool when a guy who is 92 can still make a living and I hope I’m still writing at that age. Here is another of Andy Rooney’s nutty monologues.

  Christopher Meloni said goodbye to his Elliot Stabler character in Law & Order :Special Victims Unit over the summer after 12 years. Based on a lot of the comments I read on the SVU facebook page, many viewers are going to give up on the show because they won’t get to see Stabler beat some suspect up and call him an a**-wipe. I’m also going to miss those scenes but I’m not going to give up on the show either. I like the show to see the detective work and the crackpot villains, not to see Detective Olivia Benson’s having an alcoholic mother, a rapist father, and no children with a biological clock stuck at 11:59 pm. And I’m pretty bored with Stabler’s problems with his kids and his marriage too. I get it. They have issues. OK? Enough already. Can we catch some rapists and predators, please?

  I’ve seen the first two post-Stabler episodes of SVU and I think the show still has a future. Danny Pino’s Detective Amaro and Kelli Giddish’s Detective Rollins roles are still undefined, but they seemed to fit right in with the rest of the team. The season debut was a knock-off of the IMF chief that got accused of rape in New York a couple of months ago and this week’s episode had the comeuppance of the dad from the Wonder Years after years of abusing young basketball players. Both episodes were long on Olivia’s emotional distress at losing her partner and having to get used to new ones and short on the evil predators and the dark side of the New York streets. Not a single gunshot was fired in the last 2 weeks and I only remember one scene shot at night. I hope NBC will take the money they are saving by not paying Meloni and put it towards some top quality scripts with memorable psychopathic predators and cast them with the best guest stars money can buy. It’s OK to spend a couple of minutes on the angst of the main characters, but the show has listed heavily in that direction over the last few years and I’d rather see the the cat and mouse war between the SVU detectives and the New York predators. When I think back of the great SVU episodes, I’m always drawn to ones like the RDK killer and the Robin Williams and Carol Burnett guest starring roles as opposed to the times where Stabler’s daughter got mad at him or Olivia found out something about her alcoholic mother and rapist father. Interesting cases are what make the Law & Order series and the quicker they get back to that formula and away from soap opera storylines, the better the show will be.