The final football of the year will be Sunday’s ‘big game’. Are you wondering why I called it the ‘big game’ and not Super Bowl 50? There is a simple reason. The ‘Super Bowl’ is a registered trademark of the National Football League and I am not legally allowed to say ‘Super Bowl’ unless I have paid the National Football League for the privilege (Here is an explanation). Otherwise people might confuse this Broken Pawn with the actual sponsors of the ‘big game’ like Pepsi and Budweiser so let me make it clear that I am not a sponsor of the big game.
Unlike last year’s deflate-gate controversy surrounding the New England Patriots there has been no headline grabbing story heading into this year’s contest. One big story are the rumors that this may be Bronco quarterback Peyton Manning’s last game, which got a boost at the end of the Patriot-Bronco AFC Championship game when Manning told Patriot coach Bill Belichick that this may be ‘his last rodeo’. The comments were recorded and publicized. This past week Manning seemed perturbed when asked about his comments saying “What happened to private conversations on the 50 yard line?”, apparently not realizing there are short and long range microphones everywhere all over the field ready to catch every utterance of every player.
A bigger Peyton Manning story during the year was a documentary published by the Al-Jazeera television network that alleged Manning used human growth hormone issued under his wife’s name in 2011 when Manning was recovering from multiple neck surgeries. The report was widely ridiculed and Manning has threatened to sue Al Jazeera but has not up to the present time.
The story’s main informant is a former worker at a ‘recovery’ clinic named Charlie Sly. Sly recanted his statements in a You Tube video, saying his remarks were recorded without his knowledge by a known fraudster. When I listened to the retraction it gave me some pause since it wasn’t like he gave false statements to Al Jazeera, he was telling stories not knowing he was being recorded. It reminded me of the Linda Tripp – Monica Lewinsky conversations that were secretly taped where even though the recordings were done illegally the statements were later proven to be true. One thing that came out of this was the information that Manning’s wife really was getting HGH prescriptions from the company Sly alleged was funneling the product to Manning through his wife. This reminded me of the Roger Clemens steroid accusations where HIS wife was getting HGH and it was supposed to be for her and not for Clemens.
Now none of this was mentioned by announcer Jim Nantz during CBS broadcast of Manning’s return from injury in the Broncos game against the San Diego Chargers in the season finale. This was for a number of reasons. Manning is a golden boy of the league which CBS pays millions and millions of dollars for the rights to broadcast the games, Al Jazeera sounds like the subversive type of organization that would probably love to bring down an American icon like Manning, and Manning and Nantz are both represented by agent Sandy Montag.
Another big story was Panther quarterback Cam Newton saying that the reason his touchdown and first down celebrations are criticized is because “I'm an African-American quarterback that may scare a lot of people because they haven't seen nothing that they can compare me to…”.
I think Newton’s mention of race is off base. The people who get upset at African-American athletes’ football celebrations probably stopped following football a long time ago. Most quarterbacks aren’t as flamboyant as Newton but Newton isn’t nearly as flamboyant as wide receivers Terrell Owens and Chad (Ochocinco) Johnson from the last decade or the inane sack dance of caucasian Mark Gastineau of the Jets in the 1980’s.
The criticism of Newton is coming from the fact that this year he has performed at an MVP level, his team made a deep run at being undefeated, and he has been on national television more since leaving college. He was celebrating last year and the year before and no one cared because he wasn’t on national television as much. Newton also gets celebrated for handing out footballs after Panther touchdowns to little kids in the stands during home games. If he was getting any substantial criticism for his celebrations there is no way he would be a spokesman for something as wholesome as Dannon Oikos yogurt. Last I looked white people eat a lot of yogurt and Dannon Oikos is still in business so there can’t be too many racists running around complaining about Cam Newton.
Newton has been a winner everywhere he has ever been. He was the quarterback of a junior college national champion team, a collegiate national champion, won a Heisman Trophy, and is likely to win the MVP. In this day and age success breeds contempt. That is where any criticism of Cam Newton is coming from. Tom Brady has won 4 super bowls and appeared in 2 others and the media is quick to give him criticism on anything from deflategate to his views on nutrition. If Peyton Manning was a champion like Tom Brady the HGH allegations would be taken more seriously but despite his all his records and one Super Bowl he is the type of quarterback that has come up short more often than come up big and I think that patina of being a loser is what keeps him celebrated instead of criticized. Personally I'd much rather see Newton celebrate than watch Manning endlessly point, gesticulate, and scream 'Omaha' before each and every snap.
I guess Newton felt the same way I did since later this week when asked about being an African-American quarterback said "I don't even want to touch on the topic of black quarterback, because I think this game is bigger than black, white or even green" adroitly turning the conversation away from race and towards the Super Bowl. For the most part I agree with Newton except for the game being bigger than green since green is the reason all but the official sponsors have to call it the ‘Big Game’.
Denver Broncos vs. Carolina Panthers
I am amazed that the Broncos even made it to the Super Bowl but here they are with Peyton Manning leading a mistake free offense and a rock solid defense. The Panthers were no surprise to me or anyone else since they have rolled through the league on the way to a 17-1 record. Getting ahead is going to be the key to the game since the Panthers defense will tee off on Manning if he has to throw to catch up while Manning can orchestrate his mistake-free short passing and running game if the Broncos are winning.
I am currently $50 in the red for this playoff season heading into the final game of the season so the pressure us for me to continue my 3 year playoff winning streak. I think the Panthers are going to win the game but the betting line from the Betonline.ag lines as listed on the Yahoo Sports page is 4.5 which seems a little high for me so I will bet $110 to win $100 on the over of 44 points. Despite the solid defenses for both sides I like the chances of both sides finding enough big plays to get this game in the 50’s. Please keep in mind that my wagers are for entertainment purposes only with no real money being risked.
Showing posts with label football. Show all posts
Showing posts with label football. Show all posts
Friday, February 5, 2016
Friday, January 1, 2016
Nobody's Perfect
The 1972 Miami Dolphins’ historical significance as the last perfect NFL team survived another year when the Atlanta Falcons beat the Carolina Panthers on Sunday to drop the Panther’s record to a mere 14-1. The 1972 Dolphins used to be celebrated for their perfection until they seemed to be openly rooting for the 2008 New England Patriots to lose (the Patriots went 18-0 that year until losing in the Super Bowl). I think many people and media outlets felt cheated about not having their own perfect season to write about or say they saw and took their frustrations out on the Dolphins. The Dolphins haven’t helped their case very much either. In 2013 the team was invited to the White House to meet the President and celebrate the 40th anniversary of their perfection but three members decided not to attend because of ‘political differences’ which rightfully angered a lot of people that like to think that celebrating sports champions is one of the sure fire ways for Americans to show that we can at least agree on some things.
Don Shula, the legendary coach of those Dolphins said he was rooting for the Panthers to go undefeated and I believe him since his son Mike is the Panthers’ offensive coordinator. I wouldn’t have minded seeing the Panthers go undefeated either. They remind me a lot of those Dolphins in the way I felt they were underappreciated all season. I listen to quite a few sports podcasts and the pundits seemed to pick against the Panthers every week. The Dolphins were so poorly thought of that they were underdogs in the Super Bowl.
Now that the Panthers have lost a game do I think their season is over? Hardly! Two years ago I predicted Panther quarterback Cam Newton would be the star of the playoffs which didn’t happen. Every time I see Newton he misses at least three short passes that should have been easy completions. It caught up with him last week but the Panthers did win 14 games including a win at Seattle against the Seahawks. Heading into the playoffs I thought the Seattle Seahawks would be the team to beat based on their recent five game winning streak in which they scored 29 or more points in each game. Seeing them lose to the Rams on Sunday changed my mind. Unless the Seahawks get star running back Marshawn Lynch back from his abdominal surgery I think the Arizona Cardinals will provide the Panthers sternest test. I tend to discount the Cardinals because I don’t trust teams that live on the pass but the Cards have a great defense which is one of the pillars of championship teams. These are the only three teams I see with a chance to get to the Super Bowl from the NFC.
The AFC looks like a pack of flawed teams. New England’s Tom Brady and the Kansas City Chiefs Alex Smith are the only two quarterbacks on the prospective playoff teams that were starters in training camp. The Broncos’ Peyton Manning, Bengals’ Andy Dalton, Texans’ Brian Hoyer have all gone down to injury while the Jets’ Geno Smith was unable to reclaim his starting job from perennial backup Ryan Fitzpatrick after getting his jaw broken in a training camp fight over $600. While keeping Brady healthy, the Patriots have been decimated by injuries to their wide receivers and running backs and are picking up players off the scrap heap each week to start on offense. The Chiefs may be the most complete team in the conference with a 9 game winning streak after losing running back Jamaal Charles and starting 1-5. I can’t bring myself to pick the Chiefs to win their first playoff game since Joe Montana started for them in 1994! Like everyone else, I was ready to jump on the Pittsburgh Steelers’ bandwagon to roll through the AFC until they dealt their playoff chances a near death blow by losing to the moribund Baltimore Ravens. The Steelers still have a chance to sneak into the playoffs if they can defeat the Browns while the Jets lose to the Bills and if they do I’ll have some hard thinking to do before I make this year’s postseason predictions.
The big shock heading into the final weekend of the season was the Philadelphia Eagles firing of head coach Chip Kelly. Kelly was the hottest of coaches when hired three years ago from the University of Oregon. His offense was fast paced and futuristic. Even the legendary Patriots coach Bill Belichick studied Kelly’s methods and incorporated them into his offense. Kelly took over the Eagles from Andy Reid 4-12 team and won 10 games in his first two seasons with one playoff appearance.
At the end of last season Kelly won a power play and obtained personnel control of the team. He proceeded to exercise his control by trading high priced star running back LeSean McCoy to the Bills and then signing Dallas running back DeMarco Murry to an even larger contract. Murray has gone from the NFL’s leading rusher to a marginal player getting less than 15 carries a game. New quarterback Sam Bradford was acquired from the Rams for starting quarterback Nick Foles and a second round draft pick. Bradford has been serviceable but is a free agent at the end of the year and hadn’t signed an extension.
Normally winning 10 games two years in a row would buy a coach some time to rebound from a bad year. Reports say that Eagles owner Jeff Lurie wanted Kelly to give up his personnel duties and only fired Kelly when the request was refused. For an owner to fire his coach the week of the last game of the season tells me that either Kelly tried to coerce Lurie into a contract extension and failed or Kelly was so disliked by the organization that Lurie felt he needed acknowledge it by giving Kelly this snub. I don’t see any way Lurie will get a big name to come to the Eagles since one bad season could send them out the door. As for Kelly, while I can’t see any pro team hiring him knowing he will likely be angling for the total control he had in Philadelphia he will surely be a highly sought after college coach. In the professional ranks grabbing power and not winning is a cardinal sin while college coaches are given total control over the program as a matter of course. Kelly’s final losing season Philadelphia won’t be held against him in the college ranks because after all nobody’s perfect – except the 1972 Dolphins!
Don Shula, the legendary coach of those Dolphins said he was rooting for the Panthers to go undefeated and I believe him since his son Mike is the Panthers’ offensive coordinator. I wouldn’t have minded seeing the Panthers go undefeated either. They remind me a lot of those Dolphins in the way I felt they were underappreciated all season. I listen to quite a few sports podcasts and the pundits seemed to pick against the Panthers every week. The Dolphins were so poorly thought of that they were underdogs in the Super Bowl.
Now that the Panthers have lost a game do I think their season is over? Hardly! Two years ago I predicted Panther quarterback Cam Newton would be the star of the playoffs which didn’t happen. Every time I see Newton he misses at least three short passes that should have been easy completions. It caught up with him last week but the Panthers did win 14 games including a win at Seattle against the Seahawks. Heading into the playoffs I thought the Seattle Seahawks would be the team to beat based on their recent five game winning streak in which they scored 29 or more points in each game. Seeing them lose to the Rams on Sunday changed my mind. Unless the Seahawks get star running back Marshawn Lynch back from his abdominal surgery I think the Arizona Cardinals will provide the Panthers sternest test. I tend to discount the Cardinals because I don’t trust teams that live on the pass but the Cards have a great defense which is one of the pillars of championship teams. These are the only three teams I see with a chance to get to the Super Bowl from the NFC.
The AFC looks like a pack of flawed teams. New England’s Tom Brady and the Kansas City Chiefs Alex Smith are the only two quarterbacks on the prospective playoff teams that were starters in training camp. The Broncos’ Peyton Manning, Bengals’ Andy Dalton, Texans’ Brian Hoyer have all gone down to injury while the Jets’ Geno Smith was unable to reclaim his starting job from perennial backup Ryan Fitzpatrick after getting his jaw broken in a training camp fight over $600. While keeping Brady healthy, the Patriots have been decimated by injuries to their wide receivers and running backs and are picking up players off the scrap heap each week to start on offense. The Chiefs may be the most complete team in the conference with a 9 game winning streak after losing running back Jamaal Charles and starting 1-5. I can’t bring myself to pick the Chiefs to win their first playoff game since Joe Montana started for them in 1994! Like everyone else, I was ready to jump on the Pittsburgh Steelers’ bandwagon to roll through the AFC until they dealt their playoff chances a near death blow by losing to the moribund Baltimore Ravens. The Steelers still have a chance to sneak into the playoffs if they can defeat the Browns while the Jets lose to the Bills and if they do I’ll have some hard thinking to do before I make this year’s postseason predictions.
The big shock heading into the final weekend of the season was the Philadelphia Eagles firing of head coach Chip Kelly. Kelly was the hottest of coaches when hired three years ago from the University of Oregon. His offense was fast paced and futuristic. Even the legendary Patriots coach Bill Belichick studied Kelly’s methods and incorporated them into his offense. Kelly took over the Eagles from Andy Reid 4-12 team and won 10 games in his first two seasons with one playoff appearance.
At the end of last season Kelly won a power play and obtained personnel control of the team. He proceeded to exercise his control by trading high priced star running back LeSean McCoy to the Bills and then signing Dallas running back DeMarco Murry to an even larger contract. Murray has gone from the NFL’s leading rusher to a marginal player getting less than 15 carries a game. New quarterback Sam Bradford was acquired from the Rams for starting quarterback Nick Foles and a second round draft pick. Bradford has been serviceable but is a free agent at the end of the year and hadn’t signed an extension.
Normally winning 10 games two years in a row would buy a coach some time to rebound from a bad year. Reports say that Eagles owner Jeff Lurie wanted Kelly to give up his personnel duties and only fired Kelly when the request was refused. For an owner to fire his coach the week of the last game of the season tells me that either Kelly tried to coerce Lurie into a contract extension and failed or Kelly was so disliked by the organization that Lurie felt he needed acknowledge it by giving Kelly this snub. I don’t see any way Lurie will get a big name to come to the Eagles since one bad season could send them out the door. As for Kelly, while I can’t see any pro team hiring him knowing he will likely be angling for the total control he had in Philadelphia he will surely be a highly sought after college coach. In the professional ranks grabbing power and not winning is a cardinal sin while college coaches are given total control over the program as a matter of course. Kelly’s final losing season Philadelphia won’t be held against him in the college ranks because after all nobody’s perfect – except the 1972 Dolphins!
Saturday, December 26, 2015
Ryan's Record Says Mediocre
“You are what your record says you are” ― Bill Parcells
The Buffalo Bills were eliminated from playoff contention last week with their 35-25 loss to the Washington Redskins. The loss gave the Bills a 6-8 record on the season which ensured that they won’t match last year’s 9-7 mark. A 9-7 may not seem great but it was the best Bills record since 2004 and convinced then head coach Doug Marrone to exercise an opt-out clause in his contract that allowed him to resign, and collect his full 2015 salary. Marrone interviewed for the vacant New York Jets job but didn’t get it and became an assistanct coach with the Jacksonville Jaguars.
To replace Marrone the Bills turned to Rex Ryan who had just been fired as coach of the Jets after six seasons. Under Ryan’s watch the Jets made the AFC championship game in his first two years and didn’t post a willing season or a playoff appearance in his last four with two 8-8 records to go along with a 6-10 mark and a 4-12 record in his final Jets season.
Ryan was given a five year 27.5 million dollar contract to coach the Bills. At the time, Bills owner Terry Pegula said "We look forward to his leadership and expertise in directing our team to the playoffs and bringing a championship to Buffalo for our fans." Before the season started Ryan said "We definitely expect to be in the playoffs. We have a good team." And yet here are the Bills sitting at 6-8, out of the playoffs, and whale they are a mediocre team are decidedly not good. Two of their six wins have come against .500 or better teams (the 7-7 Houston Texans and the 9-5 New York Jets) and three of their losses have been againt sub .500 teams (the 6-8 Giants and Eagles and the 5-9 Jacksonville Jaguars).
The thing that I wonder why a team with a 9-7 record on the cusp of the playoffs that suddenly finds themselves in need of a coach would pick a coach coming off a 4 year playoff drought with a 4-12 record? On the surface it seems ludicrous but Rex Ryan did take the Jets to two AFC championship games and the New York media made him out to be a larger than life character despite the four non-winning seasons that followed. Terry Pegula is the new owner of the team and probably thought it would be a public relations coup for his small-market upstate New York team to hire the media darling big city football coach.
A month ago the Bills were on the fringes of the AFC playoff race with a 5-4 record but have become undone with four losses in their last five games. The team has been one of the most penalized in NFL history and has been just good enough to lose by 8 points or less to the Patriots twice. Meanwhile the Jets hired a hungry first time coach in former Cardinals defensive coordinator Todd Bowles and have a 9-5 record behind journeyman quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick, journeyman running back Chris Ivory, and free agent pickups Darrelle Revis and Brandon Marshall.
I can’t imagine Pegula eating the 22 million left on Ryan’s contract but someone has to take the blame for the team’s shortcomings. The most likely candidate is general manager Doug Whaley. Whaley drafted Florida State quarterback E.J. Manuel with the Bills #1 draft pick in 2013. Manuel lost his starting job last ear to injury and this year to journeyman Tyrod Taylor. I wouldn’t hold one draft pick against Whaley since a roster good enough to go 9-7 must have assembled some talent. Perhaps the biggest mark against Whaley is that he was in charge of the coaching search that led to the hiring of Ryan.
To give you an idea of why the media is so enamored of Rex Ryan, here is a sampling of quotes from his post-game press conferences this year. These quotes make for great stories and are nothing like what other coaches have to say after games.
"It's on my shoulders. Belichick outcoached me. No question about it." September 20th after a 40-32 loss to the Patriots
"Can we play a lot smarter? Absolutely…Say what you want, but I'll take a team that will fight." October 4th after a 24-19 loss to the Giants
"You take away this guy, you take away that guy…Well, this other dude beats you.'' October 18th after a 34-21 loss to the Bengals
"Anything that could go wrong did go wrong" October 25th after a 34-31 loss to the Jaguars in London where the Bills were penalized 10 times, lost 2 fumbles, and had 2 interceptions
"Our D never looked great, but we had our moments." November 8th after a 33-17 win over the Dolphins
"I can tell the truth, this thing is kind of like being dumped by some girl you have the hots for. Every guy in this room has been dumped by a girl. You move on, and every now and then, they call you back. 'And they can't have you back.'" November 13th after a 22-17 win over the Jets
"I thought we were the better team, but obviously we got beat. We have ourselves to blame." December 13th after a 23-20 loss to the Eagles
"Did it go according to plan? No, not this year" December 20th after a 35-25 loss to the Redskins
Rex Ryan is a popular coach with fans, media, and players but at the end of the day like Bill Parcells say “You are what your record says you are” and Ryan’s mediocre record of 52-58 says that Rex Ryan is a mediocre coach. If Pegula fires Whaley the new GM will be stuck with a coach he didn’t hire that the media will cover in a favorable light. If Pegula fires Ryan he will be admitting to a very expensive mistake. If it was me I’d give Whaley the chance to continue to build the team and let him decide Ryan’s fate but it is more likely Whaley will be shown the door and Ryan given more authority to send the Bills latest rebuilding effort down the drain.
The Buffalo Bills were eliminated from playoff contention last week with their 35-25 loss to the Washington Redskins. The loss gave the Bills a 6-8 record on the season which ensured that they won’t match last year’s 9-7 mark. A 9-7 may not seem great but it was the best Bills record since 2004 and convinced then head coach Doug Marrone to exercise an opt-out clause in his contract that allowed him to resign, and collect his full 2015 salary. Marrone interviewed for the vacant New York Jets job but didn’t get it and became an assistanct coach with the Jacksonville Jaguars.
To replace Marrone the Bills turned to Rex Ryan who had just been fired as coach of the Jets after six seasons. Under Ryan’s watch the Jets made the AFC championship game in his first two years and didn’t post a willing season or a playoff appearance in his last four with two 8-8 records to go along with a 6-10 mark and a 4-12 record in his final Jets season.
Ryan was given a five year 27.5 million dollar contract to coach the Bills. At the time, Bills owner Terry Pegula said "We look forward to his leadership and expertise in directing our team to the playoffs and bringing a championship to Buffalo for our fans." Before the season started Ryan said "We definitely expect to be in the playoffs. We have a good team." And yet here are the Bills sitting at 6-8, out of the playoffs, and whale they are a mediocre team are decidedly not good. Two of their six wins have come against .500 or better teams (the 7-7 Houston Texans and the 9-5 New York Jets) and three of their losses have been againt sub .500 teams (the 6-8 Giants and Eagles and the 5-9 Jacksonville Jaguars).
The thing that I wonder why a team with a 9-7 record on the cusp of the playoffs that suddenly finds themselves in need of a coach would pick a coach coming off a 4 year playoff drought with a 4-12 record? On the surface it seems ludicrous but Rex Ryan did take the Jets to two AFC championship games and the New York media made him out to be a larger than life character despite the four non-winning seasons that followed. Terry Pegula is the new owner of the team and probably thought it would be a public relations coup for his small-market upstate New York team to hire the media darling big city football coach.
A month ago the Bills were on the fringes of the AFC playoff race with a 5-4 record but have become undone with four losses in their last five games. The team has been one of the most penalized in NFL history and has been just good enough to lose by 8 points or less to the Patriots twice. Meanwhile the Jets hired a hungry first time coach in former Cardinals defensive coordinator Todd Bowles and have a 9-5 record behind journeyman quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick, journeyman running back Chris Ivory, and free agent pickups Darrelle Revis and Brandon Marshall.
I can’t imagine Pegula eating the 22 million left on Ryan’s contract but someone has to take the blame for the team’s shortcomings. The most likely candidate is general manager Doug Whaley. Whaley drafted Florida State quarterback E.J. Manuel with the Bills #1 draft pick in 2013. Manuel lost his starting job last ear to injury and this year to journeyman Tyrod Taylor. I wouldn’t hold one draft pick against Whaley since a roster good enough to go 9-7 must have assembled some talent. Perhaps the biggest mark against Whaley is that he was in charge of the coaching search that led to the hiring of Ryan.
To give you an idea of why the media is so enamored of Rex Ryan, here is a sampling of quotes from his post-game press conferences this year. These quotes make for great stories and are nothing like what other coaches have to say after games.
"It's on my shoulders. Belichick outcoached me. No question about it." September 20th after a 40-32 loss to the Patriots
"Can we play a lot smarter? Absolutely…Say what you want, but I'll take a team that will fight." October 4th after a 24-19 loss to the Giants
"You take away this guy, you take away that guy…Well, this other dude beats you.'' October 18th after a 34-21 loss to the Bengals
"Anything that could go wrong did go wrong" October 25th after a 34-31 loss to the Jaguars in London where the Bills were penalized 10 times, lost 2 fumbles, and had 2 interceptions
"Our D never looked great, but we had our moments." November 8th after a 33-17 win over the Dolphins
"I can tell the truth, this thing is kind of like being dumped by some girl you have the hots for. Every guy in this room has been dumped by a girl. You move on, and every now and then, they call you back. 'And they can't have you back.'" November 13th after a 22-17 win over the Jets
"I thought we were the better team, but obviously we got beat. We have ourselves to blame." December 13th after a 23-20 loss to the Eagles
"Did it go according to plan? No, not this year" December 20th after a 35-25 loss to the Redskins
Rex Ryan is a popular coach with fans, media, and players but at the end of the day like Bill Parcells say “You are what your record says you are” and Ryan’s mediocre record of 52-58 says that Rex Ryan is a mediocre coach. If Pegula fires Whaley the new GM will be stuck with a coach he didn’t hire that the media will cover in a favorable light. If Pegula fires Ryan he will be admitting to a very expensive mistake. If it was me I’d give Whaley the chance to continue to build the team and let him decide Ryan’s fate but it is more likely Whaley will be shown the door and Ryan given more authority to send the Bills latest rebuilding effort down the drain.
Wednesday, January 28, 2015
Deflate-Gate and the Super Bowl Preview
The New England Patriots are under investigation by the NFL for using underinflated footballs in their 45-7 AFC Championship win over the Indianapolis Colts. No one is claiming that the underinflated balls were the reason the Patriots won the game. They were ahead of the Colts 17-7 at halftime when the balls were noticed to be inflated less than the minimum 12.5 pounds per cubic inch and replaced with properly inflated balls whereupon the Patriots outscored the Colts 28-0 in the second half. I don’t think any other team would have been drawn as much attention as the Patriots had their footballs been underinflated but the Patriots are the most successful pro football team this century (three Super Bowls and 14 straight 10+ win seasons) and they have had the patina of cheaters ever since they were found guilty of videotaping opposing defensive coaches signals during games. The videotaping was the infamous ‘Spygate’ scandal which cost Belichick $500,000 and the Patriots $250,000 in addition to the forfeiture of their 2008 first round pick.
Belichick and Tom Brady claimed ignorance of purposely underinflating the balls in separate news conferences last Thursday. Belichick said he had no idea of how the footballs got underinflated and intimated that Brady would have more answers by saying “I think we all know that quarterbacks, kickers, specialists have certain preferences on footballs. They know a lot more about it than I do. They're a lot more sensitive to it than I am” and “Tom's personal preferences on his footballs is something he can talk about in much better detail …”
In the same interview, Belichick also talked about how he makes his team practice and train in all manner of weather conditions “Again, anyone who has seen us practice knows that we make it harder, not easier, to handle the football. Our players train in conditions that a lot of people would recommend that we not drive in. That’s what they do. … And I know that because I work them every day.” I find it hard to believe that a football coach so driven to detail wouldn’t have any understanding of what kind of football his quarterbacks and kickers like so if anything Belichick is likely guilty of some deception in his press conference.
Brady’s press conference was after Belichick’s on Thursday and Brady claimed that not only didn’t he have anything to do with underinflating the balls but that he pays no attention to the balls in play as long as he can grip them properly “From the first half to the second half, I didn’t think twice about it. I didn’t put one thought into the football at that point. Once I approve the ball, like I said, that’s the ball that I expect out there on the field.”
I don’t think the issue is whether the Patriots deflated the footballs in the AFC championship game. After all, the footballs were replaced after halftime and it didn’t seem to affect Brady in the slightest. I think the problem most people have is the perception that the Patriots have been cheating by underinflating the balls for years and only got caught this past weekend. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Patriots inflated the balls at the minimum pressure and then figured out a place to store the footballs where they would deflate further, much like the Colorado Rockies store the baseballs for their home games in a humidor (with the blessings of Major League Baseball) to counteract the effects of the mile high air in Denver allowing baseballs to travel further. I doubt they would be knowingly breaking the rules but I would have no doubt they would push any rule to its absolute limit in order to gain the slightest of advantages.
The Patriots don’t win 10+ games every year and get to the AFC Championship Game and Super Bowl more often than not because the balls are underinflated – they have their accomplishments because as an organization they are just smarter than most other football teams. They drafted a Hall of Fame quarterback in the sixth round but when Brady was hurt on the opening weekend of 2008 and missed the year they still won 11 games with seventh round pick Matt Cassel and then traded Cassel (who has since failed to hold onto a starting job in Kansas City and Minnesota) to the Chiefs for a second round draft pick. The Patriots picked up Randy Moss in 2007 for a fourth round pick, kept him for four seasons (including a record setting 22 touchdowns in 2007) and in 2011 traded him to the Vikings for a third round pick. The third round pick was used on backup quarterback Ryan Mallet who stayed with the team for three years and was traded to the Houston Texans for a seventh round pick. The Patriots are masters at picking up players other teams don’t want, getting production out of them, and then trading them for draft picks or players when their usefulness is at an end. Compare this to the Colts trading a first round pick last year to get running back Trent Richardson from the Browns and one year later Richardson wasn't hurt but also wasn't active for the AFC championship game.
Not only are the Patriots masters at personnel management, Belichick has long been at the cutting edge of game management. There was the famous game against the Broncos in 2003 when the Patriots were facing a 4th down from their own one yard line trailing 24-23 with less than three minutes left. Belichick intentionally gave up a safety to trail 26-23. The Patriots got a free kick after the safety to put the Broncos at their own 15, got the ball back with 2:15 left and drove for the winning touchdown in a 30-26 victory. Sometimes the decisions don’t work out so well like in 2009 when he went for the first down on a fourth and 2 play from his own 28 yard line with 2:08 left and a 34-28 lead over the Colts. The Patriots failed to get the first down and the Colts scored a touchdown for a 35-34 win. The point I’m making is that the Patriots and Belichick know more about their sport than the rest of the league combined. In their playoff game against the Ravens last month, Belichick exploited a wrinkle in the rule book to allow him to have multiple receivers and running backs at the line of scrimmage and confuse the Ravens as to which players were eligible to receive passes and which weren’t. The loophole will likely be closed by this time next year but it may have been the deciding factor in their 35-31 Patriots victory.
One thing I learned through this entire scandal was that each team prepares the footballs its offense will use in the game while separate balls are prepared by the league for kicking plays. I understand why each team would want its quarterback to throw a ball he is comfortable with but isn’t this just asking for someone to doctor the footballs? A billion dollar operation like the NFL should be able to have games balls made to their exact specifications for game use and if a quarterback doesn’t like a particular ball they can ask for it to be replaced just like a baseball pitcher can. I expect the NFL to prevent this situation from recurring by taking control of all the game balls in the near future. This 'deflate-gate' controversy is much ado about nothing and has only served to distract the football public from the long term excellence of Tom Brady, Bill Belichick and the Patriots organization and kept the attention away from what could be a Super Bowl for the ages. And speaking of the big game...
Super Bowl 49 – Seattle Seahawks vs. New England Patriots.
Thanks to some shrewd money management and a Green Bay Packers choke for the ages, I find myself heading into the Super Bowl week $40 mythical dollars to the plus side on this years playoff predictions after gaining $90 from splitting my AFC and NFC championship wagers. I have no idea who will win this game and neither does the betting public as the game is very close to a 'pick 'em' (the Patriots are currently a 1 point favorite). If I had a gun to my head I would pick the Seahawks since I predicted them to win the Super Bowl but since I don’t have a gun to my head I will bet $100 that over 47.5 points will be scored using the Betonline.ag lines as listed on the Yahoo Sports page . Please keep in mind that while I am serious about my predictions I am not betting any real money and the picks are for entertainment purposes only.
Belichick and Tom Brady claimed ignorance of purposely underinflating the balls in separate news conferences last Thursday. Belichick said he had no idea of how the footballs got underinflated and intimated that Brady would have more answers by saying “I think we all know that quarterbacks, kickers, specialists have certain preferences on footballs. They know a lot more about it than I do. They're a lot more sensitive to it than I am” and “Tom's personal preferences on his footballs is something he can talk about in much better detail …”
In the same interview, Belichick also talked about how he makes his team practice and train in all manner of weather conditions “Again, anyone who has seen us practice knows that we make it harder, not easier, to handle the football. Our players train in conditions that a lot of people would recommend that we not drive in. That’s what they do. … And I know that because I work them every day.” I find it hard to believe that a football coach so driven to detail wouldn’t have any understanding of what kind of football his quarterbacks and kickers like so if anything Belichick is likely guilty of some deception in his press conference.
Brady’s press conference was after Belichick’s on Thursday and Brady claimed that not only didn’t he have anything to do with underinflating the balls but that he pays no attention to the balls in play as long as he can grip them properly “From the first half to the second half, I didn’t think twice about it. I didn’t put one thought into the football at that point. Once I approve the ball, like I said, that’s the ball that I expect out there on the field.”
I don’t think the issue is whether the Patriots deflated the footballs in the AFC championship game. After all, the footballs were replaced after halftime and it didn’t seem to affect Brady in the slightest. I think the problem most people have is the perception that the Patriots have been cheating by underinflating the balls for years and only got caught this past weekend. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Patriots inflated the balls at the minimum pressure and then figured out a place to store the footballs where they would deflate further, much like the Colorado Rockies store the baseballs for their home games in a humidor (with the blessings of Major League Baseball) to counteract the effects of the mile high air in Denver allowing baseballs to travel further. I doubt they would be knowingly breaking the rules but I would have no doubt they would push any rule to its absolute limit in order to gain the slightest of advantages.
The Patriots don’t win 10+ games every year and get to the AFC Championship Game and Super Bowl more often than not because the balls are underinflated – they have their accomplishments because as an organization they are just smarter than most other football teams. They drafted a Hall of Fame quarterback in the sixth round but when Brady was hurt on the opening weekend of 2008 and missed the year they still won 11 games with seventh round pick Matt Cassel and then traded Cassel (who has since failed to hold onto a starting job in Kansas City and Minnesota) to the Chiefs for a second round draft pick. The Patriots picked up Randy Moss in 2007 for a fourth round pick, kept him for four seasons (including a record setting 22 touchdowns in 2007) and in 2011 traded him to the Vikings for a third round pick. The third round pick was used on backup quarterback Ryan Mallet who stayed with the team for three years and was traded to the Houston Texans for a seventh round pick. The Patriots are masters at picking up players other teams don’t want, getting production out of them, and then trading them for draft picks or players when their usefulness is at an end. Compare this to the Colts trading a first round pick last year to get running back Trent Richardson from the Browns and one year later Richardson wasn't hurt but also wasn't active for the AFC championship game.
Not only are the Patriots masters at personnel management, Belichick has long been at the cutting edge of game management. There was the famous game against the Broncos in 2003 when the Patriots were facing a 4th down from their own one yard line trailing 24-23 with less than three minutes left. Belichick intentionally gave up a safety to trail 26-23. The Patriots got a free kick after the safety to put the Broncos at their own 15, got the ball back with 2:15 left and drove for the winning touchdown in a 30-26 victory. Sometimes the decisions don’t work out so well like in 2009 when he went for the first down on a fourth and 2 play from his own 28 yard line with 2:08 left and a 34-28 lead over the Colts. The Patriots failed to get the first down and the Colts scored a touchdown for a 35-34 win. The point I’m making is that the Patriots and Belichick know more about their sport than the rest of the league combined. In their playoff game against the Ravens last month, Belichick exploited a wrinkle in the rule book to allow him to have multiple receivers and running backs at the line of scrimmage and confuse the Ravens as to which players were eligible to receive passes and which weren’t. The loophole will likely be closed by this time next year but it may have been the deciding factor in their 35-31 Patriots victory.
One thing I learned through this entire scandal was that each team prepares the footballs its offense will use in the game while separate balls are prepared by the league for kicking plays. I understand why each team would want its quarterback to throw a ball he is comfortable with but isn’t this just asking for someone to doctor the footballs? A billion dollar operation like the NFL should be able to have games balls made to their exact specifications for game use and if a quarterback doesn’t like a particular ball they can ask for it to be replaced just like a baseball pitcher can. I expect the NFL to prevent this situation from recurring by taking control of all the game balls in the near future. This 'deflate-gate' controversy is much ado about nothing and has only served to distract the football public from the long term excellence of Tom Brady, Bill Belichick and the Patriots organization and kept the attention away from what could be a Super Bowl for the ages. And speaking of the big game...
Super Bowl 49 – Seattle Seahawks vs. New England Patriots.
Thanks to some shrewd money management and a Green Bay Packers choke for the ages, I find myself heading into the Super Bowl week $40 mythical dollars to the plus side on this years playoff predictions after gaining $90 from splitting my AFC and NFC championship wagers. I have no idea who will win this game and neither does the betting public as the game is very close to a 'pick 'em' (the Patriots are currently a 1 point favorite). If I had a gun to my head I would pick the Seahawks since I predicted them to win the Super Bowl but since I don’t have a gun to my head I will bet $100 that over 47.5 points will be scored using the Betonline.ag lines as listed on the Yahoo Sports page . Please keep in mind that while I am serious about my predictions I am not betting any real money and the picks are for entertainment purposes only.
Wednesday, January 7, 2015
Great Expectations
The first ever four team college football playoff took place last week. After a close first half, the defending champion Florida State Seminoles (the only undefeated team this year) self-destructed and lost their first game in over two years to the Oregon Ducks while the Ohio State Buckeyes came back from a 21-6 hole to upset perennial college football power Alabama.
While the Ducks and Buckeyes were the winners on the field I believe the biggest winner was the playoff selection committee’s decision to jump the Buckeyes from the sixth seed and out of the playoffs to the fourth and final playoff spot over Big 12 co-champions Baylor and TCU in the last week of deliberations. The committee said that their decision was swayed by Ohio States 59-0 win over 13th ranked Wisconsin in the Big 10 championship game while TCU was throttling perennial loser Iowa State 55-3 and Baylor was beating 9th ranked Kansas State 38-27.
When the final playoff seedings were announced the playoff committee was widely chided for picking a big name team like Ohio State from the inferior Big 10 conference and bypassing the worthier Big 12 co-champs. The complaining only grew when TCU walloped 9th ranked Ole Miss (the only team to beat the top seeded Alabama Crimson Tide) 42-3 in the Peach Bowl. But Ohio State’s victory has vindicated the playoff selection committee and given them credibility for next year although I doubt they will ever have the courage to deny an undefeated team like Florida State that wins a lot of close games against inferior competition a spot in the playoffs.
I felt the biggest surprise of the college football offseason was the firing of Nebraska coach Bo Pelini. Pelini was the Nebraska coach from 2008 through 2014 and had never won less than nine games in a season (you can see his record here). The issue some Nebraska fans and athletic director Shawn Eichorst had was that Pelini had never won more than ten games in a season (he won ten games three times) or captured a conference championship (he did win three division championships and lost three conference title games). Pelini has been exceptionally crude at times and some of his more vulgar tirades (like this one) have caused the University great embarrassment but he seemed to be growing into the job and at age 47 could have been the coach for decades to come.
In firing Pelini (who was under contract through 2019), Eichorst said "We weren't good enough in the games that mattered." and when asked about the criteria for a new coach said "We're going to get it right." Less than a week later Eichorst hired Oregon State University coach Mike Riley as the new Nebraska head coach. Riley is 61 years old and had coached the Beavers for 14 years since 1997 (taking a few years off to coach the San Diego Chargers). In hiring Riley Eichorst said "I have no doubt that Mike will assemble a tremendous staff and lead our student-athletes to win Big Ten titles and compete for national championships in the years ahead." This intrigued me so I decided to look at the record (you can too by clicking here). In his 14 years as a head coach at Oregon State, Riley has won zero Pac-10 or Pac-12 titles, has won nine games twice and ten games once and has never finished a season ranked higher than 20 (Pelini’s Cornhuskers were ranked 14 in 2009 but otherwise also has never finished a season ranked higher than 20).
Riley has never been accused of the kind of vulgar rants Pelini (here is Pelini's classic farewell speech to his players) has been recorded making but he hasn’t won as much as Pelini either. So it seems to me that Eichorst has gotten himself an older, cheaper ($2.7 million vs. $3.1 million), more refined version of Pelini but not a more accomplished version. There is nothing in Riley’s record to make me think he will lead the Cornhuskers to Big 10 or national championships.
It wasn’t that Pelini didn’t win – Pelini didn’t win enough. Nebraska won national championships in 1970 and 1971 under Bob Devaney and three from 1994 to 1997 under Tom Osborne. Nebraska expects to win national championships every year like they’re the Yankees or something. In my opinion the expectations are far too great but given those expectations firing Pelini is a justifiable decision. What I don’t get is If Eichorst is expecting national championships why he didn’t get a coach that has won one or come close to on or has potential to grow into a national championship coach instead of a 60+ year old coach who has a 15 year body of work that says he won’t come close to a national championship.
One state to the east, the Iowa Hawkeyes had a promising season going. They had a 7-3 record and if they could win their remaining two games against Wisconsin and Nebraska the Hawkeyes would win their division of the Big 10 and play Ohio State for the conference crown. With both games at home the Hawkeye had reasonable expectations of winning these contests. Wisconsin took an early 19-3 over Iowa but the Hawkeyes scored two touchdowns to narrow the game to 19-17 but missed a 2-point conversion attempt to tie the score early in the fourth quarter. The teams traded touchdowns but with 5:40 left in the game Wisconsin managed to run out the clock to clinch a 26-24 win.
With nothing to play for except pride, the Hawkeyes took a 24-7 lead against Nebraska in the third quarter only to allow three straight touchdowns to find themselves trailing 28-24. The Hawkeyes proceeded to score a touchdown with less than two minutes left to take a 31-28 lead only to allow a last second field goal by the Cornhuskers to send the game into overtime. In the overtime the Hawkeyes scored a field goal to take yet another lead but then gave up a touchdown to lose to the Cornhuskers 37-31.
The 7-3 record and the hopes of a division championship had turned into 7-5 mark and an invitation to something called the TaxSlayer Bowl against a 6-6 Tennessee team. The TaxSlayer Bowl used to be the Gator Bowl until TaxSlayer.com bought the naming rights and someday it will be called something else. The Hawkeyes fell behind early and often – they trailed 28-0 in the first 20 minutes, 35-7 at halftime, and 42-7 in the second half before some late game ‘pity’ touchdowns led to fairly respectable 45-28 final score.
There are plenty of Hawkeye voices calling for Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz to be fired but Iowa athletic director Gary Barta isn't among them. Before the bowl fiasco Barta said finishing 7-5 wasn’t acceptable and that winning at Iowa is measured by championships but after the bowl game Barta said “what I do see are student-athletes who are 100 percent behind their coach. I see a group of coaches are still behind each other and that's important. Because I've been around programs where a coach loses a team, and that's not the case at Iowa”. There wasn’t even a hint of the athletic director newspeak for getting ready to replace a coach (‘We’ll evaluate everything after the season’, ‘No one’s job is safe’, ‘We’re always evaluating our options’).
While Bo Pelini has won nine or ten games in each of his seven seasons and lost his job, Ferentz has won nine games or more games only five times in his 16 seasons (coaching record here) and last won none games in 2009. Yet he still has his job. Why is Barta so patient as opposed to Eichorst? One reason is Ferentz has accomplished things Pelini hasn’t – Iowa was co-champion of the Big 10 twice, finished the season ranked in the top 10 four times, had two 11 win season, and played in two Orange Bowls. While Ferentz’s lows are lower his highs are also higher than Pelini’s Nebraska squads.
Iowa’s expectations for its football program are to contend for the conference championship and occasionally have a big season and that is what Ferentz has delivered. If he goes another three of four years without a ten win season or division championship then he will probably be replaced for not meeting the program’s expectations. Nebraska seemingly has the expectation of winning (not contending for) conference championships and contending and occasionally winning national championships and Pelini lost his job for not coming close to those expectations. I have the feeling that Pelini’s vulgar tirades are the real reason he was let go and not meeting the programs ‘expectations’ was the excuse. When Ohio State wanted to get back on the national radar they hired Urban Meyer, a coach with a track record of winning. Alabama did the same with Nick Saban. Eichorst quickly hired a coach with a long term record of mediocre results. Either Eichorst is the smartest guy in the room or he really doesn’t have championship expectations after all.
Speaking of expectations, I can't say I met my expectations for last week's playoff bets. My reasoning was sound but my money management left much to be desired. I successfully picked Carolina to win, Baltimore and Pittsburgh to score more than 46.5 points (they scored 47), and the Colts to beat the Bengals by more than four points. Those three bets put me up $300 but I lost $110 mythical dollars on my 25-1 bet of the Steelers winning the Super Bowl and lost my double bet of $220 on the Lions and Cowboys going over 48.5 points when the Lions failed to get a winning touchdown in the last three minutes. So heading into week 2 I’m down $30 despite winning 3 of my 5 picks. By contrast, my guest prognosticator Shawn Pavlik picked all the favorites and is only down $20. I clearly have some catching up to do with this week’s picks using the Betonline.ag lines as listed on the Yahoo Sports page and as usual for entertainment purposes only.
Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots
I’ve never been able to figure out this Baltimore Ravens team so I won’t start trying now. The Patriots have been the best team in the AFC this year but the Ravens have a knack of winning on the road including their 28-13 win over the Patriots in the 2013 AFC championship game. I think the under 20 degree weather will keep scoring down so I’ll bet $110 to win $100 that the total score will be under 47.5 points.
Carolina Panthers vs Seattle Seahawks
The Panthers have played the Seahawks the last three years, all in Carolina. In 2012 the Seahawks won 16-12. In 2013 the final score was Seattle 12 and Carolina 7. Seattle won again this year 13-9. Even though all three games were within 5 points with and none of the three games saw 30 points scored Seattle is favored by 10.5 points with the over under at 40. It would seem like a no-brainer to pick the Panthers with the points or take the under. The big differences are that this game is in Seattle and it’s a playoff game. I think Seattle will score more than 40 points all by themselves and will bet $110 to win $100 on the over.
Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers
The Cowboys barely beat the Lions at home last week and will now head to Green Bay to play the rested Packers. I expect the Packers to win easily but the Cowboys have that 'team of destiny aura' that makes me hesitant to give the 7 points or give 3-1 odds on the money line. The temperature is predicted to be 15 degrees which makes the over under line of 53 a little high for my tastes so I’ll bet $110 to win $100 on the under.
Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos
The Broncos and especially Peyton Manning haven’t played especially well the past few weeks of the season but I feel the week off will rejuvenate Manning for at least one week and will bet $110 to win $100 that the Broncos will be able to beat the gritty but mistake prone Colts by more than the seven point spread.
While the Ducks and Buckeyes were the winners on the field I believe the biggest winner was the playoff selection committee’s decision to jump the Buckeyes from the sixth seed and out of the playoffs to the fourth and final playoff spot over Big 12 co-champions Baylor and TCU in the last week of deliberations. The committee said that their decision was swayed by Ohio States 59-0 win over 13th ranked Wisconsin in the Big 10 championship game while TCU was throttling perennial loser Iowa State 55-3 and Baylor was beating 9th ranked Kansas State 38-27.
When the final playoff seedings were announced the playoff committee was widely chided for picking a big name team like Ohio State from the inferior Big 10 conference and bypassing the worthier Big 12 co-champs. The complaining only grew when TCU walloped 9th ranked Ole Miss (the only team to beat the top seeded Alabama Crimson Tide) 42-3 in the Peach Bowl. But Ohio State’s victory has vindicated the playoff selection committee and given them credibility for next year although I doubt they will ever have the courage to deny an undefeated team like Florida State that wins a lot of close games against inferior competition a spot in the playoffs.
I felt the biggest surprise of the college football offseason was the firing of Nebraska coach Bo Pelini. Pelini was the Nebraska coach from 2008 through 2014 and had never won less than nine games in a season (you can see his record here). The issue some Nebraska fans and athletic director Shawn Eichorst had was that Pelini had never won more than ten games in a season (he won ten games three times) or captured a conference championship (he did win three division championships and lost three conference title games). Pelini has been exceptionally crude at times and some of his more vulgar tirades (like this one) have caused the University great embarrassment but he seemed to be growing into the job and at age 47 could have been the coach for decades to come.
In firing Pelini (who was under contract through 2019), Eichorst said "We weren't good enough in the games that mattered." and when asked about the criteria for a new coach said "We're going to get it right." Less than a week later Eichorst hired Oregon State University coach Mike Riley as the new Nebraska head coach. Riley is 61 years old and had coached the Beavers for 14 years since 1997 (taking a few years off to coach the San Diego Chargers). In hiring Riley Eichorst said "I have no doubt that Mike will assemble a tremendous staff and lead our student-athletes to win Big Ten titles and compete for national championships in the years ahead." This intrigued me so I decided to look at the record (you can too by clicking here). In his 14 years as a head coach at Oregon State, Riley has won zero Pac-10 or Pac-12 titles, has won nine games twice and ten games once and has never finished a season ranked higher than 20 (Pelini’s Cornhuskers were ranked 14 in 2009 but otherwise also has never finished a season ranked higher than 20).
Riley has never been accused of the kind of vulgar rants Pelini (here is Pelini's classic farewell speech to his players) has been recorded making but he hasn’t won as much as Pelini either. So it seems to me that Eichorst has gotten himself an older, cheaper ($2.7 million vs. $3.1 million), more refined version of Pelini but not a more accomplished version. There is nothing in Riley’s record to make me think he will lead the Cornhuskers to Big 10 or national championships.
It wasn’t that Pelini didn’t win – Pelini didn’t win enough. Nebraska won national championships in 1970 and 1971 under Bob Devaney and three from 1994 to 1997 under Tom Osborne. Nebraska expects to win national championships every year like they’re the Yankees or something. In my opinion the expectations are far too great but given those expectations firing Pelini is a justifiable decision. What I don’t get is If Eichorst is expecting national championships why he didn’t get a coach that has won one or come close to on or has potential to grow into a national championship coach instead of a 60+ year old coach who has a 15 year body of work that says he won’t come close to a national championship.
One state to the east, the Iowa Hawkeyes had a promising season going. They had a 7-3 record and if they could win their remaining two games against Wisconsin and Nebraska the Hawkeyes would win their division of the Big 10 and play Ohio State for the conference crown. With both games at home the Hawkeye had reasonable expectations of winning these contests. Wisconsin took an early 19-3 over Iowa but the Hawkeyes scored two touchdowns to narrow the game to 19-17 but missed a 2-point conversion attempt to tie the score early in the fourth quarter. The teams traded touchdowns but with 5:40 left in the game Wisconsin managed to run out the clock to clinch a 26-24 win.
With nothing to play for except pride, the Hawkeyes took a 24-7 lead against Nebraska in the third quarter only to allow three straight touchdowns to find themselves trailing 28-24. The Hawkeyes proceeded to score a touchdown with less than two minutes left to take a 31-28 lead only to allow a last second field goal by the Cornhuskers to send the game into overtime. In the overtime the Hawkeyes scored a field goal to take yet another lead but then gave up a touchdown to lose to the Cornhuskers 37-31.
When the Hawkeyes suffer, the Iowa economy suffers along with it. Instead of getting $11.90 or more for a bowl game t-shirt these 'TaxSlayer.com' ended up in the bargain bin.
There are plenty of Hawkeye voices calling for Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz to be fired but Iowa athletic director Gary Barta isn't among them. Before the bowl fiasco Barta said finishing 7-5 wasn’t acceptable and that winning at Iowa is measured by championships but after the bowl game Barta said “what I do see are student-athletes who are 100 percent behind their coach. I see a group of coaches are still behind each other and that's important. Because I've been around programs where a coach loses a team, and that's not the case at Iowa”. There wasn’t even a hint of the athletic director newspeak for getting ready to replace a coach (‘We’ll evaluate everything after the season’, ‘No one’s job is safe’, ‘We’re always evaluating our options’).
While Bo Pelini has won nine or ten games in each of his seven seasons and lost his job, Ferentz has won nine games or more games only five times in his 16 seasons (coaching record here) and last won none games in 2009. Yet he still has his job. Why is Barta so patient as opposed to Eichorst? One reason is Ferentz has accomplished things Pelini hasn’t – Iowa was co-champion of the Big 10 twice, finished the season ranked in the top 10 four times, had two 11 win season, and played in two Orange Bowls. While Ferentz’s lows are lower his highs are also higher than Pelini’s Nebraska squads.
Iowa’s expectations for its football program are to contend for the conference championship and occasionally have a big season and that is what Ferentz has delivered. If he goes another three of four years without a ten win season or division championship then he will probably be replaced for not meeting the program’s expectations. Nebraska seemingly has the expectation of winning (not contending for) conference championships and contending and occasionally winning national championships and Pelini lost his job for not coming close to those expectations. I have the feeling that Pelini’s vulgar tirades are the real reason he was let go and not meeting the programs ‘expectations’ was the excuse. When Ohio State wanted to get back on the national radar they hired Urban Meyer, a coach with a track record of winning. Alabama did the same with Nick Saban. Eichorst quickly hired a coach with a long term record of mediocre results. Either Eichorst is the smartest guy in the room or he really doesn’t have championship expectations after all.
Speaking of expectations, I can't say I met my expectations for last week's playoff bets. My reasoning was sound but my money management left much to be desired. I successfully picked Carolina to win, Baltimore and Pittsburgh to score more than 46.5 points (they scored 47), and the Colts to beat the Bengals by more than four points. Those three bets put me up $300 but I lost $110 mythical dollars on my 25-1 bet of the Steelers winning the Super Bowl and lost my double bet of $220 on the Lions and Cowboys going over 48.5 points when the Lions failed to get a winning touchdown in the last three minutes. So heading into week 2 I’m down $30 despite winning 3 of my 5 picks. By contrast, my guest prognosticator Shawn Pavlik picked all the favorites and is only down $20. I clearly have some catching up to do with this week’s picks using the Betonline.ag lines as listed on the Yahoo Sports page and as usual for entertainment purposes only.
Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots
I’ve never been able to figure out this Baltimore Ravens team so I won’t start trying now. The Patriots have been the best team in the AFC this year but the Ravens have a knack of winning on the road including their 28-13 win over the Patriots in the 2013 AFC championship game. I think the under 20 degree weather will keep scoring down so I’ll bet $110 to win $100 that the total score will be under 47.5 points.
Carolina Panthers vs Seattle Seahawks
The Panthers have played the Seahawks the last three years, all in Carolina. In 2012 the Seahawks won 16-12. In 2013 the final score was Seattle 12 and Carolina 7. Seattle won again this year 13-9. Even though all three games were within 5 points with and none of the three games saw 30 points scored Seattle is favored by 10.5 points with the over under at 40. It would seem like a no-brainer to pick the Panthers with the points or take the under. The big differences are that this game is in Seattle and it’s a playoff game. I think Seattle will score more than 40 points all by themselves and will bet $110 to win $100 on the over.
Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers
The Cowboys barely beat the Lions at home last week and will now head to Green Bay to play the rested Packers. I expect the Packers to win easily but the Cowboys have that 'team of destiny aura' that makes me hesitant to give the 7 points or give 3-1 odds on the money line. The temperature is predicted to be 15 degrees which makes the over under line of 53 a little high for my tastes so I’ll bet $110 to win $100 on the under.
Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos
The Broncos and especially Peyton Manning haven’t played especially well the past few weeks of the season but I feel the week off will rejuvenate Manning for at least one week and will bet $110 to win $100 that the Broncos will be able to beat the gritty but mistake prone Colts by more than the seven point spread.
Wednesday, September 10, 2014
The Return of King Football
I’ve been onsite at a bank for the past few months. The bankers are a friendly enough group but I rarely see them talk much about non-bank stuff until last week when groups started getting together in clusters to loudly voice their opinions. The subject of this new-found collegiality wasn’t the upcoming Iowa elections or the spate of beheadings in the Middle East or the record highs of the stock market or even what the new Apple iWatch looks like. What brought these bankers together is the same matter of vital national importance that brings people together in workplaces all over America this time of the year – the return of football.
King football has made its 2014 fall debut two weeks ago in all its varieties. The Marshalltown High School football team won their opening game 41-0 over Waterloo East which equaled their win total from 2013. That win was followed by a 45-20 loss to Newton to even their record at 1-1. The Bobcats will play 11 games this season and if they manage to finish fourth or better in their 6 team division will make the Iowa High School Football Playoffs. The loose playoff requirements provide hope to all but the worst high school football teams – the 1-11 Bobcats headed into their final game with a chance to make the playoffs if they could have just won their last game. Now that the games have begin there has been no mention of Blair Van Staauldine, the player who made national headlines when he was suspended for the first three games of the season after being pictured on social media making a 'W' with his hands.
The National Football League season started this past Thursday with the Seattle Seahawks beginning their defense of last season’s Super Bowl with a 36-16 crushing of the Green Bay Packers. The start of the season must come as a welcome relief to NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell who has been in for an unaccustomed heavy dose of criticism this summer. After levying a two game suspension for Ray Rice when he was arrested for domestic violence and a video released by TMZ showed him dragging his unconscious fiancée out of an elevator, Goodell and the NFL was pilloried in the press for imposing a sentence only half the length routinely handed out to substance abusers. Goodell bowed to the pressure by publicly saying he got the suspension wrong, but when a group of US Senators sent a letter to the Commissioner with the veiled threat of congressional action, Goodell announced new penalties of a six game suspension for first time domestic abusers with a life time ban (reversible at the commissioner’s discretion) for a second offense. No sooner had the interest in this issue receded, TMZ published video from inside the elevator showing Rice dropping his fiancée with a left that would do Mike Tyson proud. This has caused the Ravens to terminate Rice’s contract and the NFL to issue a lifetime ban. Even though all criminal charges will be dismissed if he completes a ‘diversion’ program I doubt any other team will be willing to pick up Rice and the media storm that will come along with him even if the lifetime ban would ever be lifted.
If that was the NFL’s only public relations nightmare it would likely have been marked down as a successful summer in the league’s corporate offices, but the league has been hit with a new wave of lawsuits following the recent multimillion dollar settlement of the concussion lawsuit brought on by former players. This year NFL teams have been accused of illegally giving their players painkillers and narcotics from 1968 to 2008 without regard to their long-term health. No matter the outcome of the lawsuits, the continual interviews of the stars of yesteryear talking about the number of pain killing injections will be a perpetual black eye for the NFL for the entire season.
The NFL’s other perpetual black eye is the public outrage over the Washington Redskins' team nickname, which is being seen as offensive by more and more people with momentum growing in the calls the team to change its name. In May Redskin owner Dan Snyder vowed to ‘never’ change the name of his team and has resisted all pressure and threats to make him do otherwise. Snyder has proven to be an exceptionally poor owner with only three playoff teams and eight head coaches in his 16 years at the Redskin helm. But Snyder is an exceptional businessman ironically making his billions in the advertising field and increased Redskins’ revenue by luring big name advertisers like Coke, Budweiser, and the $207 million dollars paid by Federal Express to rename ‘Redskins Stadium’ as ‘FedEx Field’. With many media outlets refusing to use the ‘Redskin’ name, increasing boycotts of his team and sponsors, and a 35% decrease in the sales of Redskin merchandise, I expect Snyder will soon put some of his millions to work by paying a public relations firm to come up with a new name and logo for his team so he can get rid of his bad publicity and cash in on the merchandise dollars his new logo will bring him.
In Iowa the NFL is popular and every town loves their high school team but around these parts the college football Iowa Hawkeyes and Iowa State Cyclones ARE football. While a few of the bankers that are Chicago Bears fans took some ribbing because of the team’s home loss to the lowly Buffalo Bills on opening weekend, everyone was discussing Saturday’s Hawkeye comeback and the instant replay snafu that seemed to give the Cyclone’s opponent a touchdown late in the first half. The conversations were all civil but the passion heated up as Cyclone and Hawkeye fans compared opinions on who would win this weekend’s annual contest between the two teams.
When I set up my monthly youth chess tournament for this Saturday, I was warned that this was the weekend of the BIG Iowa – Iowa State football game. I’ve scheduled a tournament for this date in the past and while there is only a small impact on attendance there are plenty of parents in the parking lot listening to the game on the radio and updating the rest of us after each score, fumble, interception, or if the coach sneezes or a quarterback walks back to the huddle with a limp. The Friday before the game has been a de-facto company holiday at all my jobs in Iowa for the past 20 years, with cookouts and pot lucks and employees encouraged to wear their team’s colors as if we were street thugs that had to decide what gang we were going to be part of.
Both teams have been less than impressive in the early part of the season although their results have been as different as they can be. In the first week of the season both teams took on opponents from the ‘minor league’ FCS. The Cyclones hosted the top ranked FCS team the North Dakota State Bisons and took a 14-0 lead before allowing the Bisons to score the next 34 points on their way to a 34-14 Cyclone loss. The Hawkeyes played the 12th ranked FCS University of Northern Iowa. The Hawkeyes fell behind 10-7 in the first half but retook the lead by half time and held on for a 31-23 victory. What is the difference between the major league FBS (Football Bowl Subdivision) and the minor league FCS (Football Championship Subdivision)? FBS teams like Iowa and Iowa State are allowed to give out 85 scholarships for football while the FCS schools are limited to 63 scholarships. FBS schools also share in the lucrative college bowls and the upcoming playoff revenue and the members of the FBS power conferences (like Iowa State of the Big 12 and Iowa in of the Big 10) collect millions of additional dollars from their conferences TV networks. Just compare their athletic budgets. North Dakota State has an athletic budget of $15 million, Iowa State $60 million, The University of Iowa $84 million, and the University of Northern Iowa $13 million. Yet even with these advantages low-level FBS schools like Iowa State regularly lose to their FCS little brothers and mid-level FBS schools like Iowa have great difficulty defeating the minor leagues of college football.
Last week, Iowa took on mid-level FBS school Ball State in Iowa City while Iowa State hosted Big 12 conference rival Kansas State. Ball State has been on a roll over the last two years winning nine games in 2012 (losing to the University of Central Florida in the Beef O’Brady’s Bowl) and ten games in 2013 (losing to Arkansas State in the GoDaddy.com Bowl). Ball State played a fine game against the Hawkeyes and led by 10 points with three minutes left before surrendering two touchdowns within 30 seconds to lose 17-13. Hawkeye fans were relieved at the win and pessimistic for the rest of the season after two narrow wins against teams that they judge to be decidedly inferior.
The Kansas State Wildcats have all the advantages of being in a power conference that the Iowa State Cyclones have along with the same disadvantages of being in a sparsely populated state with little local football talent to draw from and limited local radio and TV possibilities. But while the Cyclones have won more games than they’ve lost three times in the past twenty years, the Wildcats have had 13 winning seasons over the same span including nine seasons of ten wins or more (the Cyclones have never won ten in a season). The Cyclones started fast and led 28-13 with a minute to go in the first half but allowed Kansas State to score the last 19 points of the game to lose 32-28.
Cyclone fans have already begun their annual litany of excuses for their two losses in what looks like another disastrous season: an iffy call against Kansas State, their starting center being injured early in the North Dakota State game, the misfortune of having the FCS champion Bisons on their schedule instead of a creampuff team, no easy games in the tough Big 12 conference, etc…, etc…,etc… From an outsider’s view point I see head coach Paul Rhoads has had the following won loss record over the past five years : 7-6, 6-7, 6-7, 5-7, and 3-9 (here is the complete list) and see something is obviously missing in the area of recruiting, game management, game planning, leadership or some combination of these. The Cyclones have pulled some huge upsets under Rhoads' tenure – they beat Nebraska and Texas on the road and defeated a #2 ranked Oklahoma State team in a nationally televised game a few years back – but have never been able to establish themselves as even a middle of the road team in their own conference. The upsets and Rhoads fiery post game speeches after them have gained him far more national notoriety than his team’s records warrant and gained him the long term support of the fans and athletic department - all I see is a team that every other team looks forward to playing and a fan base that accepts playing just good enough to lose.
The Cyclones will bring their 0-2 record to Iowa City to play the 2-0 Hawkeyes this weekend which will culminate another week of workplace dress-up, tailgating, and smack talk. While the Hawkeyes haven’t played especially well they have played well enough to win which is a quality I always find more impressive than playing well enough to lose like the Cyclones. Whenever I point out the Cyclones’ shortcomings they always seem to pull off one of their signature upsets and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them win this week but I’m not counting on it. What I am counting on is hearing plenty of talk about the game at work next Monday.
King football has made its 2014 fall debut two weeks ago in all its varieties. The Marshalltown High School football team won their opening game 41-0 over Waterloo East which equaled their win total from 2013. That win was followed by a 45-20 loss to Newton to even their record at 1-1. The Bobcats will play 11 games this season and if they manage to finish fourth or better in their 6 team division will make the Iowa High School Football Playoffs. The loose playoff requirements provide hope to all but the worst high school football teams – the 1-11 Bobcats headed into their final game with a chance to make the playoffs if they could have just won their last game. Now that the games have begin there has been no mention of Blair Van Staauldine, the player who made national headlines when he was suspended for the first three games of the season after being pictured on social media making a 'W' with his hands.
The National Football League season started this past Thursday with the Seattle Seahawks beginning their defense of last season’s Super Bowl with a 36-16 crushing of the Green Bay Packers. The start of the season must come as a welcome relief to NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell who has been in for an unaccustomed heavy dose of criticism this summer. After levying a two game suspension for Ray Rice when he was arrested for domestic violence and a video released by TMZ showed him dragging his unconscious fiancée out of an elevator, Goodell and the NFL was pilloried in the press for imposing a sentence only half the length routinely handed out to substance abusers. Goodell bowed to the pressure by publicly saying he got the suspension wrong, but when a group of US Senators sent a letter to the Commissioner with the veiled threat of congressional action, Goodell announced new penalties of a six game suspension for first time domestic abusers with a life time ban (reversible at the commissioner’s discretion) for a second offense. No sooner had the interest in this issue receded, TMZ published video from inside the elevator showing Rice dropping his fiancée with a left that would do Mike Tyson proud. This has caused the Ravens to terminate Rice’s contract and the NFL to issue a lifetime ban. Even though all criminal charges will be dismissed if he completes a ‘diversion’ program I doubt any other team will be willing to pick up Rice and the media storm that will come along with him even if the lifetime ban would ever be lifted.
If that was the NFL’s only public relations nightmare it would likely have been marked down as a successful summer in the league’s corporate offices, but the league has been hit with a new wave of lawsuits following the recent multimillion dollar settlement of the concussion lawsuit brought on by former players. This year NFL teams have been accused of illegally giving their players painkillers and narcotics from 1968 to 2008 without regard to their long-term health. No matter the outcome of the lawsuits, the continual interviews of the stars of yesteryear talking about the number of pain killing injections will be a perpetual black eye for the NFL for the entire season.
The NFL’s other perpetual black eye is the public outrage over the Washington Redskins' team nickname, which is being seen as offensive by more and more people with momentum growing in the calls the team to change its name. In May Redskin owner Dan Snyder vowed to ‘never’ change the name of his team and has resisted all pressure and threats to make him do otherwise. Snyder has proven to be an exceptionally poor owner with only three playoff teams and eight head coaches in his 16 years at the Redskin helm. But Snyder is an exceptional businessman ironically making his billions in the advertising field and increased Redskins’ revenue by luring big name advertisers like Coke, Budweiser, and the $207 million dollars paid by Federal Express to rename ‘Redskins Stadium’ as ‘FedEx Field’. With many media outlets refusing to use the ‘Redskin’ name, increasing boycotts of his team and sponsors, and a 35% decrease in the sales of Redskin merchandise, I expect Snyder will soon put some of his millions to work by paying a public relations firm to come up with a new name and logo for his team so he can get rid of his bad publicity and cash in on the merchandise dollars his new logo will bring him.
In Iowa the NFL is popular and every town loves their high school team but around these parts the college football Iowa Hawkeyes and Iowa State Cyclones ARE football. While a few of the bankers that are Chicago Bears fans took some ribbing because of the team’s home loss to the lowly Buffalo Bills on opening weekend, everyone was discussing Saturday’s Hawkeye comeback and the instant replay snafu that seemed to give the Cyclone’s opponent a touchdown late in the first half. The conversations were all civil but the passion heated up as Cyclone and Hawkeye fans compared opinions on who would win this weekend’s annual contest between the two teams.
When I set up my monthly youth chess tournament for this Saturday, I was warned that this was the weekend of the BIG Iowa – Iowa State football game. I’ve scheduled a tournament for this date in the past and while there is only a small impact on attendance there are plenty of parents in the parking lot listening to the game on the radio and updating the rest of us after each score, fumble, interception, or if the coach sneezes or a quarterback walks back to the huddle with a limp. The Friday before the game has been a de-facto company holiday at all my jobs in Iowa for the past 20 years, with cookouts and pot lucks and employees encouraged to wear their team’s colors as if we were street thugs that had to decide what gang we were going to be part of.
Both teams have been less than impressive in the early part of the season although their results have been as different as they can be. In the first week of the season both teams took on opponents from the ‘minor league’ FCS. The Cyclones hosted the top ranked FCS team the North Dakota State Bisons and took a 14-0 lead before allowing the Bisons to score the next 34 points on their way to a 34-14 Cyclone loss. The Hawkeyes played the 12th ranked FCS University of Northern Iowa. The Hawkeyes fell behind 10-7 in the first half but retook the lead by half time and held on for a 31-23 victory. What is the difference between the major league FBS (Football Bowl Subdivision) and the minor league FCS (Football Championship Subdivision)? FBS teams like Iowa and Iowa State are allowed to give out 85 scholarships for football while the FCS schools are limited to 63 scholarships. FBS schools also share in the lucrative college bowls and the upcoming playoff revenue and the members of the FBS power conferences (like Iowa State of the Big 12 and Iowa in of the Big 10) collect millions of additional dollars from their conferences TV networks. Just compare their athletic budgets. North Dakota State has an athletic budget of $15 million, Iowa State $60 million, The University of Iowa $84 million, and the University of Northern Iowa $13 million. Yet even with these advantages low-level FBS schools like Iowa State regularly lose to their FCS little brothers and mid-level FBS schools like Iowa have great difficulty defeating the minor leagues of college football.
Last week, Iowa took on mid-level FBS school Ball State in Iowa City while Iowa State hosted Big 12 conference rival Kansas State. Ball State has been on a roll over the last two years winning nine games in 2012 (losing to the University of Central Florida in the Beef O’Brady’s Bowl) and ten games in 2013 (losing to Arkansas State in the GoDaddy.com Bowl). Ball State played a fine game against the Hawkeyes and led by 10 points with three minutes left before surrendering two touchdowns within 30 seconds to lose 17-13. Hawkeye fans were relieved at the win and pessimistic for the rest of the season after two narrow wins against teams that they judge to be decidedly inferior.
The Kansas State Wildcats have all the advantages of being in a power conference that the Iowa State Cyclones have along with the same disadvantages of being in a sparsely populated state with little local football talent to draw from and limited local radio and TV possibilities. But while the Cyclones have won more games than they’ve lost three times in the past twenty years, the Wildcats have had 13 winning seasons over the same span including nine seasons of ten wins or more (the Cyclones have never won ten in a season). The Cyclones started fast and led 28-13 with a minute to go in the first half but allowed Kansas State to score the last 19 points of the game to lose 32-28.
Cyclone fans have already begun their annual litany of excuses for their two losses in what looks like another disastrous season: an iffy call against Kansas State, their starting center being injured early in the North Dakota State game, the misfortune of having the FCS champion Bisons on their schedule instead of a creampuff team, no easy games in the tough Big 12 conference, etc…, etc…,etc… From an outsider’s view point I see head coach Paul Rhoads has had the following won loss record over the past five years : 7-6, 6-7, 6-7, 5-7, and 3-9 (here is the complete list) and see something is obviously missing in the area of recruiting, game management, game planning, leadership or some combination of these. The Cyclones have pulled some huge upsets under Rhoads' tenure – they beat Nebraska and Texas on the road and defeated a #2 ranked Oklahoma State team in a nationally televised game a few years back – but have never been able to establish themselves as even a middle of the road team in their own conference. The upsets and Rhoads fiery post game speeches after them have gained him far more national notoriety than his team’s records warrant and gained him the long term support of the fans and athletic department - all I see is a team that every other team looks forward to playing and a fan base that accepts playing just good enough to lose.
The Cyclones will bring their 0-2 record to Iowa City to play the 2-0 Hawkeyes this weekend which will culminate another week of workplace dress-up, tailgating, and smack talk. While the Hawkeyes haven’t played especially well they have played well enough to win which is a quality I always find more impressive than playing well enough to lose like the Cyclones. Whenever I point out the Cyclones’ shortcomings they always seem to pull off one of their signature upsets and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them win this week but I’m not counting on it. What I am counting on is hearing plenty of talk about the game at work next Monday.
Thursday, January 3, 2013
Coaching Gambles and Plain Old Gambles
The NFL season ended last Sunday and the playoffs will begin on Saturday. The New York Giants, my favorite team and defending Super Bowl Champions didn’t make the playoffs. After a 6-2 start, the Giants went into cruise control and couldn’t flip the switch when they needed to come up with a win against the Falcons and Ravens in the final weeks of the season. The Giants lost the division title to the Redskins, who beat the Cowboys in the Sunday Night season finale when Cowboy quarterback Tony Romo’s on field performance once again failed to live up to his celebrity status.
On Monday, 22 percent of the NFL coaches were fired. Andy Reid of the Philadelphia Eagles saw an end to his 14 year coaching tenure after a career worst 4-12 season. Reid took the Eagles to the playoffs in 9 of his first 12 seasons but missing the playoffs two seasons in a row was enough for him to lose his job. Most of the other firings were predictable. The Chiefs’ Romeo Crennel had a record of 4-15 and Chan Gailey’s 16-32 record for the Buffalo Bills weren’t remotely good enough to stay on. Ken Whisenhunt took the Arizona Cardinals to the Super Bowl 5 seasons ago, but that is an eternity in the NFL and he lost his job after going 18-30 in the last three years. San Diego let Norv Turner go after missing the playoffs the past three years despite a 24-24 mark and new owner Jimmy Haslem of the Cleveland Browns cleaned house after their fifth straight season with 10 or more losses.
I was surprised that meddling owner Jerry Jones of the Dallas Cowboys kept his head coach Jason Garrett after his second straight 8-8 season. The Cowboys have won only one playoff game in the past 15 years and Jones isn’t known for his patience with head coaches with none lasting more than 5 years since he took over ownership 24 years ago. The other coach that I was surprised to see keep his job is Rex Ryan of the New York Jets. After getting the Jets to the AFC Championship game in his first two seasons as head coach (losing both), the Jets have regressed the past two years to an 8-8 mark last season and a 6-10 record for this year’s undisciplined mess of a team. The Jets did fire General Manager Mike Tannenbaum and if the past is indicative of the future, the new Jets GM will fire Ryan next year and bring his own coach in.
The most controversial of the firings was Chicago Bears coach Lovie Smith’s dismissal after nine seasons. Smith was the only coach with a winning record to be fired. The Bears had a 10-6 season and only missed the playoffs when the Minnesota Vikings upset the Green Bay Packers late Sunday afternoon.
Smith took the Bears to the Super Bowl in 2006 and the NFC championship game in 2010 so why did he lose his job? Last year the Bears started 7-3 but when quarterback Jay Cutler was knocked out for the season, they faded badly and finished 8-8. The blame for not having an adequate backup quarterback cost General Manager Jerry Angelo his job and Smith now had to work for General Manager Phil Emery and not the man who hired him (Angelo). This year, the Bears started 7-1 and after getting their fans dreaming of another Super Bowl appearance lost six of their next seven games. They rallied to win their last two games but not making the playoffs gave Emery the chance to make his mark on the franchise by installing his own head coach.
Smith was the victim of relative success. He won three division championships in his nine seasons. The Bears won one division championship in the 13 years before his tenure. The Bears lost 11 games in his first season and never again lost 10 games under his watch. In the 13 years before his hiring the Bears lost ten or more games six times. I listened to the Chicago Sports radio station 670 – The Score on Sunday and Monday. Callers, commentators, and ex-players alike thought that Smith was a good coach but was not the man needed to take the Bears to the ‘next level’.
I can agree with the premise that Smith was not going to lead the Bears to the ‘next level’ which I presume means constant playoff appearances and the occasional Super Bowl. I just think that Bears management is missing a big point. There are very few NFL coaches that take their team to the playoffs on a consistent basis along with an occasional Super Bowl and those coaches are very rarely available. Tom Coughlin has been the head coach of the Giants for nine years (the same as Smith). Coughlin’s record is two games better (83-61 vs. 81-63), has been to the playoffs five years as opposed to three for Smith, but has won both Super Bowls he led the Giants to (Smith lost in his only appearance). Tom Coughlin is the next level type of coach that the Bears are looking for, but despite occasional rumblings after a disappointing Giants season, he isn’t going anywhere and neither are other recent Super Bowl winning coaches like the Mike McCarthy of the Packers, Mike Tomlin of the Steelers, or Bill Belichick of the Patriots. This leaves the coaches who had past success and traded it in for the executive suite or the broadcasting booth like Mike Holmgren, Bill Cowher, Jon Gruden, or Tony Dungy that are waiting to be lured out of retirement for total control of the football operation and huge bucks besides. Firing a coach that isn’t winning is a no-brainer. Getting rid of a successful coach not for winning but for not winning enough is a very risky proposition unless that ‘next level’ coach is already waiting in the wings.
Speaking of risky propositions, since I was so prescient in my prediction of the Lakers troubles not being a product of their coach (The Lakers have gone 14-12 after firing coach Mike Brown who had a 1-4 start) , I will be using my prognosticating skills on this year’s NFL playoffs. I’ll be picking against the money line instead of the point spread because I’m much more comfortable picking the winners and giving or taking the odds than taking or giving points and losing my bet because of a late score. I’ll be using the odds at betonline.ag from the Yahoo odds page. Please keep in mind that this is all in fun and I'm not betting real money - not even any of Bethany Carson's trillions of Zimbabwe dollars!
Bengals (+185) at Texans (-215)
The Texans had the best record in the conference until last week when they lost to the Colts and slid to the #3 seed and lost their week off. The Bengals were a poor team until winning seven of their last eight games. Despite the trend, I’ll bet $215 on the Texans to win at home and I’ll win $100 if I’m right.
Vikings (+300) at Packers (-360)
This is a rematch game of last week’s epic matchup that the Vikings won on a last second field goal in a game they had to win to make the playoffs. I don’t think they can upset the Packers two weeks in a row and certainly not in Green Bay. I’ll bet $1080 to win $300 that the Packers win the third matchup of these teams this season.
Colts (+245) at Ravens (-290)
The surprising Colts will be rolling into Baltimore to take on the Ravens. The Ravens will be emotionally charged up by the announcement of team captain Ray Lewis that he will retire after the playoffs. I think the Ravens are likely to win the game but I like the odds on the Colts (who did have the better regular season record) and will wager $100 to win $245 on a Colts upset.
Seahawks (-155) at Redskins (+135)
Both these teams are red hot entering the playoffs with the Redskins winning their last seven games by mostly close scores and the Seahawks winning their last five in dominant fashion. The game will be in Washington and I think the home crowd’s energy will propel the young Redskins to continue their string of dramatic victories. I’ll wager $200 to win $270 on the home town ‘Skins to pull off the upset over the favored Seahawks.
On Monday, 22 percent of the NFL coaches were fired. Andy Reid of the Philadelphia Eagles saw an end to his 14 year coaching tenure after a career worst 4-12 season. Reid took the Eagles to the playoffs in 9 of his first 12 seasons but missing the playoffs two seasons in a row was enough for him to lose his job. Most of the other firings were predictable. The Chiefs’ Romeo Crennel had a record of 4-15 and Chan Gailey’s 16-32 record for the Buffalo Bills weren’t remotely good enough to stay on. Ken Whisenhunt took the Arizona Cardinals to the Super Bowl 5 seasons ago, but that is an eternity in the NFL and he lost his job after going 18-30 in the last three years. San Diego let Norv Turner go after missing the playoffs the past three years despite a 24-24 mark and new owner Jimmy Haslem of the Cleveland Browns cleaned house after their fifth straight season with 10 or more losses.
I was surprised that meddling owner Jerry Jones of the Dallas Cowboys kept his head coach Jason Garrett after his second straight 8-8 season. The Cowboys have won only one playoff game in the past 15 years and Jones isn’t known for his patience with head coaches with none lasting more than 5 years since he took over ownership 24 years ago. The other coach that I was surprised to see keep his job is Rex Ryan of the New York Jets. After getting the Jets to the AFC Championship game in his first two seasons as head coach (losing both), the Jets have regressed the past two years to an 8-8 mark last season and a 6-10 record for this year’s undisciplined mess of a team. The Jets did fire General Manager Mike Tannenbaum and if the past is indicative of the future, the new Jets GM will fire Ryan next year and bring his own coach in.
The most controversial of the firings was Chicago Bears coach Lovie Smith’s dismissal after nine seasons. Smith was the only coach with a winning record to be fired. The Bears had a 10-6 season and only missed the playoffs when the Minnesota Vikings upset the Green Bay Packers late Sunday afternoon.
Smith took the Bears to the Super Bowl in 2006 and the NFC championship game in 2010 so why did he lose his job? Last year the Bears started 7-3 but when quarterback Jay Cutler was knocked out for the season, they faded badly and finished 8-8. The blame for not having an adequate backup quarterback cost General Manager Jerry Angelo his job and Smith now had to work for General Manager Phil Emery and not the man who hired him (Angelo). This year, the Bears started 7-1 and after getting their fans dreaming of another Super Bowl appearance lost six of their next seven games. They rallied to win their last two games but not making the playoffs gave Emery the chance to make his mark on the franchise by installing his own head coach.
Smith was the victim of relative success. He won three division championships in his nine seasons. The Bears won one division championship in the 13 years before his tenure. The Bears lost 11 games in his first season and never again lost 10 games under his watch. In the 13 years before his hiring the Bears lost ten or more games six times. I listened to the Chicago Sports radio station 670 – The Score on Sunday and Monday. Callers, commentators, and ex-players alike thought that Smith was a good coach but was not the man needed to take the Bears to the ‘next level’.
I can agree with the premise that Smith was not going to lead the Bears to the ‘next level’ which I presume means constant playoff appearances and the occasional Super Bowl. I just think that Bears management is missing a big point. There are very few NFL coaches that take their team to the playoffs on a consistent basis along with an occasional Super Bowl and those coaches are very rarely available. Tom Coughlin has been the head coach of the Giants for nine years (the same as Smith). Coughlin’s record is two games better (83-61 vs. 81-63), has been to the playoffs five years as opposed to three for Smith, but has won both Super Bowls he led the Giants to (Smith lost in his only appearance). Tom Coughlin is the next level type of coach that the Bears are looking for, but despite occasional rumblings after a disappointing Giants season, he isn’t going anywhere and neither are other recent Super Bowl winning coaches like the Mike McCarthy of the Packers, Mike Tomlin of the Steelers, or Bill Belichick of the Patriots. This leaves the coaches who had past success and traded it in for the executive suite or the broadcasting booth like Mike Holmgren, Bill Cowher, Jon Gruden, or Tony Dungy that are waiting to be lured out of retirement for total control of the football operation and huge bucks besides. Firing a coach that isn’t winning is a no-brainer. Getting rid of a successful coach not for winning but for not winning enough is a very risky proposition unless that ‘next level’ coach is already waiting in the wings.
Speaking of risky propositions, since I was so prescient in my prediction of the Lakers troubles not being a product of their coach (The Lakers have gone 14-12 after firing coach Mike Brown who had a 1-4 start) , I will be using my prognosticating skills on this year’s NFL playoffs. I’ll be picking against the money line instead of the point spread because I’m much more comfortable picking the winners and giving or taking the odds than taking or giving points and losing my bet because of a late score. I’ll be using the odds at betonline.ag from the Yahoo odds page. Please keep in mind that this is all in fun and I'm not betting real money - not even any of Bethany Carson's trillions of Zimbabwe dollars!
Bengals (+185) at Texans (-215)
The Texans had the best record in the conference until last week when they lost to the Colts and slid to the #3 seed and lost their week off. The Bengals were a poor team until winning seven of their last eight games. Despite the trend, I’ll bet $215 on the Texans to win at home and I’ll win $100 if I’m right.
Vikings (+300) at Packers (-360)
This is a rematch game of last week’s epic matchup that the Vikings won on a last second field goal in a game they had to win to make the playoffs. I don’t think they can upset the Packers two weeks in a row and certainly not in Green Bay. I’ll bet $1080 to win $300 that the Packers win the third matchup of these teams this season.
Colts (+245) at Ravens (-290)
The surprising Colts will be rolling into Baltimore to take on the Ravens. The Ravens will be emotionally charged up by the announcement of team captain Ray Lewis that he will retire after the playoffs. I think the Ravens are likely to win the game but I like the odds on the Colts (who did have the better regular season record) and will wager $100 to win $245 on a Colts upset.
Seahawks (-155) at Redskins (+135)
Both these teams are red hot entering the playoffs with the Redskins winning their last seven games by mostly close scores and the Seahawks winning their last five in dominant fashion. The game will be in Washington and I think the home crowd’s energy will propel the young Redskins to continue their string of dramatic victories. I’ll wager $200 to win $270 on the home town ‘Skins to pull off the upset over the favored Seahawks.
Wednesday, November 28, 2012
A Meat Grinder of a Job
In December 2008, then Iowa State football coach gene Chizik was offered the head football coaching job at Auburn University. He took the job despite proclaiming to the Iowa State fans less than a month before that he was committed to Ames for the long haul despite his 5-19 record in his two years as the Cyclone coach.
In June 2011, Gene Chizik was at the White House with his Auburn Tigers football team to meet the President and celebrate their undefeated championship season. Two days after his White House visit, Chizik received a contract extension and a raise to three and a half million dollars a year. His book ‘All In: What It Takes To Be The Best’ entered the bookstores less than a month later.
On Sunday, less than 18 months after his White House visit and contract extension, Gene Chizik was fired as the Auburn football coach. As part of his contract he will receive 7.5 million dollars in monthly installments over the next four years.
What did Chizik do to lose his job just two years after an undefeated season that led to Auburn’s first national championship football team in 53 years? There was the small matter of four players arrested for armed robbery in March of 2011, but Chizik promptly booted them off the team and he did get a contract extension 3 months after the arrests (and subsequent convictions). The football program is also currently under investigation by the NCAA for recruiting violations, but there have been no findings yet and the NCAA long ago declared there were no violations in the recruitment of the 2010 championship quarterback and Heisman Trophy winner Cam Newton (who was accused of being sold by his advisors to the highest bidder).
The plain and simple reason Chizik was fired was he stopped winning. Auburn has a long history of firing coaches after just one or two losing seasons regardless of past success. Pat Dye won 3 consecutive SEC championships in the 1980’s but was gone after following that up with an eight win season and then two five win seasons. Chizik's predecessor, Tommy Tuberville finished first or second in his SEC division eight straight years (including an undefeated 2004 season) and he was fired after going 5-7 in 2008. Clearly Chizik’s 3-9 overall record, 0-8 SEC conference mark, and a 49-0 drubbing to in-state rival Alabama was not acceptable.
I give Auburn athletic director Jay Jacobs a lot of credit for his honesty by making no excuses for firing Chizik. He made it crystal clear when he said 'I had hoped our team would show some improvement this season…Unfortunately it didn't. The competition in our league is fierce. I decided we could not risk falling further behind by waiting for another year and hoping for improvement.' Last year Auburn was 8-5 with a 4-4 conference record and a bowl win. For a school like Iowa State this would be the best season they had in a decade and a slightly disappointing season for the Iowa Hawkeyes. For mighty Auburn with two national champions in over a century of football, this record needed improving upon according to Jacobs.
I’m sure Jacobs’ actions were prompted by the knowledge that if the football program isn’t turned around and quick, the deep-pocketed Auburn boosters would have him on the chopping block in short order (if he isn’t being fitted for the guillotine already), but I appreciate a person telling it like it is and Jacobs made it clear that at Auburn it is about winning.
I thought Chizik was a lowlife for the deceptive way he bolted from Iowa State to take the Auburn job, but I may have misjudged him. His players seemed genuinely upset that he got fired and Chizik’s assistants will collect over 3.5 million dollars in their own buyout money. When a football coach is fired, normally the assistants are also fired and have to uproot their families when they get new employment so I’ll take the buyout for his assistants as something Chizik negotiated on their behalf. On the other hand, maybe they read this blog post by Iowa’s foremost sportscaster, and having seen how shabbily Chizik treated Iowa State asked for some guaranteed money to work for him.
Despite Chizik’s contract extension and book deal, Heisman Trophy winner Newton received most of the credit for Auburn’s championship season. Chizik failed to get the accolades a national championship coach normally receives and was mostly seen as an innocent bystander who happened to be the beneficiary of Newton’s transcendent season. It didn’t seem to matter that he coached the Auburn team to bowl wins both before and after the Cam Newton season (Newton arrived as a junior college transfer and left school early to turn professional).
Will Chizik get another high profile coaching job? I can’t see it happening anytime soon. As the defensive coordinator for a national championship Texas team, Chizik was a hot coaching prospect whose hiring was seen as a coup for Iowa State. His 5-19 record at ISU didn’t get him the Auburn job. He got it because he was so highly thought of as the Auburn defensive coordinator in the 1990’s.
Having been fired two years after winning a national championship is a black mark on his record and makes him a risky hire for a big time athletic director. The fact that he has won a national championship will probably make schools shy away from hiring him as a defensive coordinator since he would be seen as a threat to the head coach. But he is one of only a handful of college football coaches with a national championship and being able to flash his championship ring should be more than enough to get him a head coaching job at a mid-major school and then he can start to work his way back up to the coaching food chain.
I wonder what kind of football coach Jacobs will get to coach the Auburn Tigers. I can't imagine him getting a big name coach or hot prospect. Why would a coach with options be attracted to a football program that is such a meat grinder that winning a national championship doesn’t buy more than a year’s grace period. I think Jacobs will end up with a proven coach that had to leave his job in disgrace like former Ohio State coach Jim Tressel.
In June 2011, Gene Chizik was at the White House with his Auburn Tigers football team to meet the President and celebrate their undefeated championship season. Two days after his White House visit, Chizik received a contract extension and a raise to three and a half million dollars a year. His book ‘All In: What It Takes To Be The Best’ entered the bookstores less than a month later.
On Sunday, less than 18 months after his White House visit and contract extension, Gene Chizik was fired as the Auburn football coach. As part of his contract he will receive 7.5 million dollars in monthly installments over the next four years.
What did Chizik do to lose his job just two years after an undefeated season that led to Auburn’s first national championship football team in 53 years? There was the small matter of four players arrested for armed robbery in March of 2011, but Chizik promptly booted them off the team and he did get a contract extension 3 months after the arrests (and subsequent convictions). The football program is also currently under investigation by the NCAA for recruiting violations, but there have been no findings yet and the NCAA long ago declared there were no violations in the recruitment of the 2010 championship quarterback and Heisman Trophy winner Cam Newton (who was accused of being sold by his advisors to the highest bidder).
The plain and simple reason Chizik was fired was he stopped winning. Auburn has a long history of firing coaches after just one or two losing seasons regardless of past success. Pat Dye won 3 consecutive SEC championships in the 1980’s but was gone after following that up with an eight win season and then two five win seasons. Chizik's predecessor, Tommy Tuberville finished first or second in his SEC division eight straight years (including an undefeated 2004 season) and he was fired after going 5-7 in 2008. Clearly Chizik’s 3-9 overall record, 0-8 SEC conference mark, and a 49-0 drubbing to in-state rival Alabama was not acceptable.
I give Auburn athletic director Jay Jacobs a lot of credit for his honesty by making no excuses for firing Chizik. He made it crystal clear when he said 'I had hoped our team would show some improvement this season…Unfortunately it didn't. The competition in our league is fierce. I decided we could not risk falling further behind by waiting for another year and hoping for improvement.' Last year Auburn was 8-5 with a 4-4 conference record and a bowl win. For a school like Iowa State this would be the best season they had in a decade and a slightly disappointing season for the Iowa Hawkeyes. For mighty Auburn with two national champions in over a century of football, this record needed improving upon according to Jacobs.
I’m sure Jacobs’ actions were prompted by the knowledge that if the football program isn’t turned around and quick, the deep-pocketed Auburn boosters would have him on the chopping block in short order (if he isn’t being fitted for the guillotine already), but I appreciate a person telling it like it is and Jacobs made it clear that at Auburn it is about winning.
I thought Chizik was a lowlife for the deceptive way he bolted from Iowa State to take the Auburn job, but I may have misjudged him. His players seemed genuinely upset that he got fired and Chizik’s assistants will collect over 3.5 million dollars in their own buyout money. When a football coach is fired, normally the assistants are also fired and have to uproot their families when they get new employment so I’ll take the buyout for his assistants as something Chizik negotiated on their behalf. On the other hand, maybe they read this blog post by Iowa’s foremost sportscaster, and having seen how shabbily Chizik treated Iowa State asked for some guaranteed money to work for him.
Despite Chizik’s contract extension and book deal, Heisman Trophy winner Newton received most of the credit for Auburn’s championship season. Chizik failed to get the accolades a national championship coach normally receives and was mostly seen as an innocent bystander who happened to be the beneficiary of Newton’s transcendent season. It didn’t seem to matter that he coached the Auburn team to bowl wins both before and after the Cam Newton season (Newton arrived as a junior college transfer and left school early to turn professional).
Will Chizik get another high profile coaching job? I can’t see it happening anytime soon. As the defensive coordinator for a national championship Texas team, Chizik was a hot coaching prospect whose hiring was seen as a coup for Iowa State. His 5-19 record at ISU didn’t get him the Auburn job. He got it because he was so highly thought of as the Auburn defensive coordinator in the 1990’s.
Having been fired two years after winning a national championship is a black mark on his record and makes him a risky hire for a big time athletic director. The fact that he has won a national championship will probably make schools shy away from hiring him as a defensive coordinator since he would be seen as a threat to the head coach. But he is one of only a handful of college football coaches with a national championship and being able to flash his championship ring should be more than enough to get him a head coaching job at a mid-major school and then he can start to work his way back up to the coaching food chain.
I wonder what kind of football coach Jacobs will get to coach the Auburn Tigers. I can't imagine him getting a big name coach or hot prospect. Why would a coach with options be attracted to a football program that is such a meat grinder that winning a national championship doesn’t buy more than a year’s grace period. I think Jacobs will end up with a proven coach that had to leave his job in disgrace like former Ohio State coach Jim Tressel.
Sunday, March 25, 2012
Quarterback Carousel
Last July, the Indianapolis Colts signed Peyton Manning to a 5 year $90 million dollar contract which included a $20 million dollar signing bonus. This was 2 months after Manning underwent neck surgery to repair a bulging disk and 16 months after he had neck surgery to relieve pressure cause by a pinched nerve. 5 weeks after signing his contract, Manning underwent neck surgery once again and missed the entire season. Without him the Colts, who had made the playoffs the past 9 years, crashed to a league-worst 2-14 record and the first pick in the draft. The reversal of fortunes prompted owner Colts Jim Irsay to fire his coach and general manager and release Manning from his contract rather than give him a 28 million dollar roster bonus.
Released from the Colts and medically cleared to resume his football career, Manning became the most sought after football free agent since Reggie White in 1993. He visited with the Arizona Cardinals, Tennessee Titans, Denver Broncos, and San Francisco 49ers before settling on the Denver Broncos. The Broncos are a seemingly good fit Manning. They play in a weak division, have a stout defense, and a good running game. The Broncos managed to make the playoffs last year with an 8-8 record after a 1-4 start (3 of their losses by 5 points or less) when they benched journeyman Kyle Orton in favor of former Heisman Trophy winner Tim Tebow. Under Tebow, the Broncos started winning the close games they were losing under Orton. They won 7 of 8 games, 6 of them by 7 points or less; many with last minute comebacks. Tebow and the Broncos lost their last 3 games in poor fashion, but managed to sneak into the playoffs when none of their division rivals could get 9 wins and even beat the 2 time AFC conference champion Pittsburgh Steelers in the playoffs when Tebow completed an 80 yard touchdown pass on the first play of overtime.
Tebow is not a typical NFL quarterback. He is a great runner and throws a good deep ball, but he has troubles throwing short and medium range passes. Because of this, the Bronco offense was based almost exclusively on a running game mixed with long passes. Tebow finished the season at the bottom 10 of the quarterback rankings in a number of categories like completion percentage and yards per attempt, but showed a knack for making plays at the end of the game to help his team win.
Because of his unapologetic Christian faith, Tebow has been a sort of cult figure whose jersey became one of the NFL’s top sellers before he even played an NFL game. The improbable nature of Tebow becoming the starting quarterback and the even more improbable nature of the many last minute comeback victories in spite of Tebow’s perceived inadequacies as a quarterback magnified his fame, giving rise to the phenomenon of ‘TebowMania’, culminating in the ‘3:16’ playoff game against the Stellers.
The Broncos general manager is John Elway, who won 2 Super Bowls with the Broncos in the 1990’s. He inherited Tebow from the previous management group and while trying very hard not to annoy the ‘Tebowites’, never endorsed him as the quarterback either. Elway was in a tough spot. He wanted a more traditional quarterback, but didn’t want to alienate the Bronco fans who thought Tebow was ‘chosen’ to be the Broncos quarterback and were buying all the Jerseys. Getting Manning has solved all Elway’s immediate problems. He has gotten rid of his popular but flawed quarterback and since Tebow’s replacement is one of the most celebrated quarterbacks of all time, the fans can’t get too upset and there will be plenty of Bronco jerseys to be sold with Manning’s name on it.
Elway’s decision to replace Tebow with Manning is risky, but for a team that has a win now at all costs mentality it makes a lot of sense and in my opinion it has a lot of merit even a team is in building mode. The Manning contract is guaranteed for this next coming year only so if Manning needs another neck surgery, his contract can disappear at the end of the year. The problem I see with Tebow is that with the amount of running he does, he’s sure to get concussed or injured and when he does his skills are so unique it will be very hard to have an adequate replacement to run the offense without a significant drop off. Of course, given the way the Colts performed without Manning, I expect he will be equally as hard to replace. Ultimately, Elway’s decision will be judged on whether the Broncos get to the Super Bowl with Manning as the quarterback, but I see it as a risk worth taking.
One day after signing Manning, the Broncos traded Tebow to the New York Jets for some low level draft picks. Tebow has gone from being the most talked about player in the NFL from the relative obscurity of Denver to the cover boy of New York. The Jets quarterback, Mark Sanchez helped his team get to within a game of the Super Bowl in his first two years, but struggled along with the rest of the team to an 8-8 mark (the same as the Broncos) last year as they missed the playoffs. The Jets made inquiries into getting Manning, but quickly signed Sanchez to a long term contract once Manning rebuffed them. When the Jets were winning, Sanchez was on the cover of GQ and dubbed by the New York press as the ‘Sanchize’, but after this season, his leadership skills and long term viability as a quarterback were questioned by his former admirers.
I think Tebow to the Jets is a bad marriage. As soon as the Jets sign their young quarterback for big money, they bring in another young quarterback to compete with him. Tebow’s popularity is so out of proportion to his ability that there will be calls from all sides to have him start if Sanchez struggles even a little. And I’m thinking the Jets only got Tebow for publicity and to sell tickets and merchandise. They announced the trade so quickly they didn’t realize that Tebow’s contract had a clause in it saying the Broncos were owed 5 million dollars by any team that traded for him. Jet’s owner Woody Johnson likes big names and publicity and may have felt he needed to do something to compete with the rival Giants Super Bowl victory. The Jet’s decision, like the Broncos, will be judged on the results, but I think they had more pressing needs than a backup quarterback, no matter how popular.
Tebow’s career arc to date reminds me of another Heisman Trophy winner from almost 30 years ago, Doug Flutie. Flutie was given the starting job out of college with the 1985 USFL New Jersey Generals until he was injured and the league folded. He was picked up by the defending champion Chicago Bears and was given the starting job by head coach Mike Ditka when starter Jim McMahon was injured. The knock on Flutie at the time was that he was too short to be a starting quarterback, but Ditka thought he was a winner. Flutie played creditably in the last 2 games of the season, but was a disaster in the playoffs against the Redskins and was traded the next year to the New England Patriots as a hometown favorite (Flutie played college ball for Boston College). By 1989, Flutie was out of the NFL and resurfaced in the Canadian Football League. He became a Hall of Fame Canadian player and came back to the NFL in 1998 with the Buffalo Bills. In 1998, Flutie made the All-Pro team, led the Bills to the playoffs, and stayed in the NFL for 5 more years. I see a lot of the same qualities of perseverance in Tebow that Flutie had and I think he can also become a championship caliber NFL quarterback, but only if he can get out of New York and on a team (or league) where he can be a player without being a sideshow or publicity gimmick.
Released from the Colts and medically cleared to resume his football career, Manning became the most sought after football free agent since Reggie White in 1993. He visited with the Arizona Cardinals, Tennessee Titans, Denver Broncos, and San Francisco 49ers before settling on the Denver Broncos. The Broncos are a seemingly good fit Manning. They play in a weak division, have a stout defense, and a good running game. The Broncos managed to make the playoffs last year with an 8-8 record after a 1-4 start (3 of their losses by 5 points or less) when they benched journeyman Kyle Orton in favor of former Heisman Trophy winner Tim Tebow. Under Tebow, the Broncos started winning the close games they were losing under Orton. They won 7 of 8 games, 6 of them by 7 points or less; many with last minute comebacks. Tebow and the Broncos lost their last 3 games in poor fashion, but managed to sneak into the playoffs when none of their division rivals could get 9 wins and even beat the 2 time AFC conference champion Pittsburgh Steelers in the playoffs when Tebow completed an 80 yard touchdown pass on the first play of overtime.
Tebow is not a typical NFL quarterback. He is a great runner and throws a good deep ball, but he has troubles throwing short and medium range passes. Because of this, the Bronco offense was based almost exclusively on a running game mixed with long passes. Tebow finished the season at the bottom 10 of the quarterback rankings in a number of categories like completion percentage and yards per attempt, but showed a knack for making plays at the end of the game to help his team win.
Because of his unapologetic Christian faith, Tebow has been a sort of cult figure whose jersey became one of the NFL’s top sellers before he even played an NFL game. The improbable nature of Tebow becoming the starting quarterback and the even more improbable nature of the many last minute comeback victories in spite of Tebow’s perceived inadequacies as a quarterback magnified his fame, giving rise to the phenomenon of ‘TebowMania’, culminating in the ‘3:16’ playoff game against the Stellers.
The Broncos general manager is John Elway, who won 2 Super Bowls with the Broncos in the 1990’s. He inherited Tebow from the previous management group and while trying very hard not to annoy the ‘Tebowites’, never endorsed him as the quarterback either. Elway was in a tough spot. He wanted a more traditional quarterback, but didn’t want to alienate the Bronco fans who thought Tebow was ‘chosen’ to be the Broncos quarterback and were buying all the Jerseys. Getting Manning has solved all Elway’s immediate problems. He has gotten rid of his popular but flawed quarterback and since Tebow’s replacement is one of the most celebrated quarterbacks of all time, the fans can’t get too upset and there will be plenty of Bronco jerseys to be sold with Manning’s name on it.
Elway’s decision to replace Tebow with Manning is risky, but for a team that has a win now at all costs mentality it makes a lot of sense and in my opinion it has a lot of merit even a team is in building mode. The Manning contract is guaranteed for this next coming year only so if Manning needs another neck surgery, his contract can disappear at the end of the year. The problem I see with Tebow is that with the amount of running he does, he’s sure to get concussed or injured and when he does his skills are so unique it will be very hard to have an adequate replacement to run the offense without a significant drop off. Of course, given the way the Colts performed without Manning, I expect he will be equally as hard to replace. Ultimately, Elway’s decision will be judged on whether the Broncos get to the Super Bowl with Manning as the quarterback, but I see it as a risk worth taking.
One day after signing Manning, the Broncos traded Tebow to the New York Jets for some low level draft picks. Tebow has gone from being the most talked about player in the NFL from the relative obscurity of Denver to the cover boy of New York. The Jets quarterback, Mark Sanchez helped his team get to within a game of the Super Bowl in his first two years, but struggled along with the rest of the team to an 8-8 mark (the same as the Broncos) last year as they missed the playoffs. The Jets made inquiries into getting Manning, but quickly signed Sanchez to a long term contract once Manning rebuffed them. When the Jets were winning, Sanchez was on the cover of GQ and dubbed by the New York press as the ‘Sanchize’, but after this season, his leadership skills and long term viability as a quarterback were questioned by his former admirers.
I think Tebow to the Jets is a bad marriage. As soon as the Jets sign their young quarterback for big money, they bring in another young quarterback to compete with him. Tebow’s popularity is so out of proportion to his ability that there will be calls from all sides to have him start if Sanchez struggles even a little. And I’m thinking the Jets only got Tebow for publicity and to sell tickets and merchandise. They announced the trade so quickly they didn’t realize that Tebow’s contract had a clause in it saying the Broncos were owed 5 million dollars by any team that traded for him. Jet’s owner Woody Johnson likes big names and publicity and may have felt he needed to do something to compete with the rival Giants Super Bowl victory. The Jet’s decision, like the Broncos, will be judged on the results, but I think they had more pressing needs than a backup quarterback, no matter how popular.
Tebow’s career arc to date reminds me of another Heisman Trophy winner from almost 30 years ago, Doug Flutie. Flutie was given the starting job out of college with the 1985 USFL New Jersey Generals until he was injured and the league folded. He was picked up by the defending champion Chicago Bears and was given the starting job by head coach Mike Ditka when starter Jim McMahon was injured. The knock on Flutie at the time was that he was too short to be a starting quarterback, but Ditka thought he was a winner. Flutie played creditably in the last 2 games of the season, but was a disaster in the playoffs against the Redskins and was traded the next year to the New England Patriots as a hometown favorite (Flutie played college ball for Boston College). By 1989, Flutie was out of the NFL and resurfaced in the Canadian Football League. He became a Hall of Fame Canadian player and came back to the NFL in 1998 with the Buffalo Bills. In 1998, Flutie made the All-Pro team, led the Bills to the playoffs, and stayed in the NFL for 5 more years. I see a lot of the same qualities of perseverance in Tebow that Flutie had and I think he can also become a championship caliber NFL quarterback, but only if he can get out of New York and on a team (or league) where he can be a player without being a sideshow or publicity gimmick.
Sunday, January 29, 2012
Super Thoughts
The Tata Steel chess tournament in Wijk ann Zee, Holland just ended with a resounding victory by Armenian Levon Aronian, who won 7 of his 13 games while losing only 2. Despite beating Aronian in their individual encounter, world ranked #1 Magnus Carlsen couldn’t keep up the pace and could win only 4 games against 1 loss enroute to tying for second place with the Azerbaijani Radjabov (the only undefeated player) and former American now Italian Fabiano Caruana. Defending champion Hikaru Nakamura of America shook off a slow start to go unbeaten after his round 2 loss to Aronian and finish tied for fifth. It was a super performance by Aronian, who will now play a match with former champion Kramnik in April as both prepare for the upcoming candidate matches of the next World Championship cycle.
Now that the first super-GM chess tournament of the year is over, I can turn my attention to the Super Bowl, which is a rematch of the 2008 contest between the Giants and the Patriots. I ran into my friend Dennis at the Hy-Vee drug store yesterday. I hadn’t had a chance to talk to him in a couple of months. Dennis is a huge Packers fan and was still upset over their playoff loss at the hands of the Giants 2 weeks ago. I thought the Packers were going to repeat last year’s championship and even predicted it a few weeks ago, but they ran into a hot Giants team that was playing their 3rd playoff game in 3 weeks (including the season finale against the Cowboys in which the winner was in the playoffs as the NFC East champion).
The Giants haven’t had much of a defense until the last few weeks, but the one thing they can do well is hurry the quarterback and even the best quarterbacks can look ordinary when they don’t have time to look over the field and make an unhurried throw. Packer QB Aaron Rodgers did not play up to his superhuman standards, but played well enough to win the game if the rest of the team had stepped up. Without an all-world performance from their all-world quarterback, the Packers weren’t able to overcome their receiver’s continual habit of dropping passes, and weren’t helped by their 4 turnovers (including a fumble and interception by Rodgers). Despite all their problems, the Packers were only losing 13-10 with 10 seconds left in the half, but their defense botched the Giant’s desperation pass on the last play of the first half and found themselves down 20-10 at halftime.
I’m still not sure how the Giants managed to win the NFC championship game against the 49ers on Sunday. The 49er defense is of championship quality and their offense was top notch against the Saints, but except for allowing a couple of TD passes to All-Pro tight end Vernon Davis, the Giant Defense held the 49ers in check and were bailed out by 2 late game punt-return fumbles by Kyle Williams to escape with a 20-17 overtime victory.
The Giants seem to be a team of destiny, replaying the same script as the Super Bowl champs of 4 years ago by barely slipping into the playoffs, beating Green Bay on the road, and winning the NFC Championship in overtime on the road. They are even playing the New England Patriots in the Super Bowl, albeit a 15-3 team and not the 18-0 version chasing immortality as last time. The Patriots looked quite pedestrian in barely getting past a Baltimore Ravens team that self-destructed in the final minute when Lee Evans failed to secure the winning touchdown pass (allowing it to be knocked out of his hands) and Iowa native Billy Cundiff missed a short game-tying field goal in the closing seconds.
The odds makers are saying the Patriots are a 3 point favorite in the big game, but the sports experts I hear on the radio are split between the two teams. The Giants are the last team to have beaten the Patriots with a 24-20 win in New England in Week 8 of the regular season. The conventional wisdom favoring the Giants is not only are the Giants the team of destiny, the Patriots defense is suspect at best. I saw the Patriots get crushed by the Steelers and lose to the Giants in the last minute, but I also saw them beat Broncos and Ravens in the playoffs and I think that their defense is much improved from earlier in the season.
Football games are often compared to chess matches. Most of the time I think it’s a stupid analogy. In chess, both players start with the same number and types of pieces and everything is out in the open, the winner being the one who ‘sees’ more than their opponent. In football, the teams have differing strengths and weaknesses and deception plays a huge role as both sides use personnel groupings and formations to disguise their plans and create mismatches. But in this case, the chess analogy seems to hold truer to me. New England coach Bill Belichick and Giants coach Tom Coughlin worked together when they were members of Bill Parcells' Giant staff of the late 80’s and they have a familiarity with each other’s styles. And since the teams have already played each other, I’m not sure either side will be able to spring too many surprises on each other, so like a chess game the winner will be who can best use the forces at their command.
I’ve been wrong on almost every sports prediction I’ve ever made on this blog, but that won’t stop me from making a prediction. I think the Patriots are the slightly better team and that Belichick will be able to take away the Giants pass rush with quick passes, while on defense the Patriots massive tackles will stop the Giants running game without help and be able to load the defense with pass defenders. If the teams played 11 times, I’d expect the Patriots to win 6 times to the Giants 5, but since they will only play once, I'm picking the Patriots to not only win but cover the spread 28-24, but since I'm a lifelong Giants fan, I'd like nothing better than to be wrong.
Now that the first super-GM chess tournament of the year is over, I can turn my attention to the Super Bowl, which is a rematch of the 2008 contest between the Giants and the Patriots. I ran into my friend Dennis at the Hy-Vee drug store yesterday. I hadn’t had a chance to talk to him in a couple of months. Dennis is a huge Packers fan and was still upset over their playoff loss at the hands of the Giants 2 weeks ago. I thought the Packers were going to repeat last year’s championship and even predicted it a few weeks ago, but they ran into a hot Giants team that was playing their 3rd playoff game in 3 weeks (including the season finale against the Cowboys in which the winner was in the playoffs as the NFC East champion).
The Giants haven’t had much of a defense until the last few weeks, but the one thing they can do well is hurry the quarterback and even the best quarterbacks can look ordinary when they don’t have time to look over the field and make an unhurried throw. Packer QB Aaron Rodgers did not play up to his superhuman standards, but played well enough to win the game if the rest of the team had stepped up. Without an all-world performance from their all-world quarterback, the Packers weren’t able to overcome their receiver’s continual habit of dropping passes, and weren’t helped by their 4 turnovers (including a fumble and interception by Rodgers). Despite all their problems, the Packers were only losing 13-10 with 10 seconds left in the half, but their defense botched the Giant’s desperation pass on the last play of the first half and found themselves down 20-10 at halftime.
I’m still not sure how the Giants managed to win the NFC championship game against the 49ers on Sunday. The 49er defense is of championship quality and their offense was top notch against the Saints, but except for allowing a couple of TD passes to All-Pro tight end Vernon Davis, the Giant Defense held the 49ers in check and were bailed out by 2 late game punt-return fumbles by Kyle Williams to escape with a 20-17 overtime victory.
The Giants seem to be a team of destiny, replaying the same script as the Super Bowl champs of 4 years ago by barely slipping into the playoffs, beating Green Bay on the road, and winning the NFC Championship in overtime on the road. They are even playing the New England Patriots in the Super Bowl, albeit a 15-3 team and not the 18-0 version chasing immortality as last time. The Patriots looked quite pedestrian in barely getting past a Baltimore Ravens team that self-destructed in the final minute when Lee Evans failed to secure the winning touchdown pass (allowing it to be knocked out of his hands) and Iowa native Billy Cundiff missed a short game-tying field goal in the closing seconds.
The odds makers are saying the Patriots are a 3 point favorite in the big game, but the sports experts I hear on the radio are split between the two teams. The Giants are the last team to have beaten the Patriots with a 24-20 win in New England in Week 8 of the regular season. The conventional wisdom favoring the Giants is not only are the Giants the team of destiny, the Patriots defense is suspect at best. I saw the Patriots get crushed by the Steelers and lose to the Giants in the last minute, but I also saw them beat Broncos and Ravens in the playoffs and I think that their defense is much improved from earlier in the season.
Football games are often compared to chess matches. Most of the time I think it’s a stupid analogy. In chess, both players start with the same number and types of pieces and everything is out in the open, the winner being the one who ‘sees’ more than their opponent. In football, the teams have differing strengths and weaknesses and deception plays a huge role as both sides use personnel groupings and formations to disguise their plans and create mismatches. But in this case, the chess analogy seems to hold truer to me. New England coach Bill Belichick and Giants coach Tom Coughlin worked together when they were members of Bill Parcells' Giant staff of the late 80’s and they have a familiarity with each other’s styles. And since the teams have already played each other, I’m not sure either side will be able to spring too many surprises on each other, so like a chess game the winner will be who can best use the forces at their command.
I’ve been wrong on almost every sports prediction I’ve ever made on this blog, but that won’t stop me from making a prediction. I think the Patriots are the slightly better team and that Belichick will be able to take away the Giants pass rush with quick passes, while on defense the Patriots massive tackles will stop the Giants running game without help and be able to load the defense with pass defenders. If the teams played 11 times, I’d expect the Patriots to win 6 times to the Giants 5, but since they will only play once, I'm picking the Patriots to not only win but cover the spread 28-24, but since I'm a lifelong Giants fan, I'd like nothing better than to be wrong.
Wednesday, December 21, 2011
Here's to Perfection
The Green Bay Packers lost their chance for an undefeated season when they lost 29-14 in Kansas City by the Chiefs on Sunday. The Chiefs chances of pulling off this upset were boosted considerably when Head Coach Todd Haley was fired less than a year after taking the team to the playoffs. With their coach fired, the only way for the players to prove that the reason for the teams’ disappointing 5-8 record was the coach and not the players was to give their very best effort. That, the calming stewardship of interim coach Romeo Crennel, and the return of recently acquired quarterback Kyle Orton from his broken finger proved to be just enough to stifle the Packers great QB Aaron Rodgers and take the victory.
The Chief fans are elated by the victory and rightly so, but I wonder why a coach in only his third year is fired when he won the division in his second year? The Chiefs lost Pro Bowl running back Jamaal Charles, quarterback Matt Cassell, and budding superstar tight end Tony Moeaki to injury earlier this season. General Manager Scott Pioli managed to pick up a serviceable quarterback (Orton), who promptly broke his thumb in his first game, leaving the quarterback chores in the shaky hands of one Tyler Palko. I’m assuming Haley had some sort of problems getting along with the players or Pioli, but since Pioli was the one who hired Haley less than 3 years ago, how long will it be till the former New England boy wonder’s judgment comes under question?
I was one of the many who thought the Packers would win all their regular season games, especially after their last second victory in the Meadowlands against the Giants. I was watching the Kansas City game and it appeared to me the defending Super Bowl champs were upended by injuries on the offensive line which played into the hands of a hungry team intent on pressuring quarterback Aaron Rodgers and an offense that found a couple of trick screen plays to tight end Leonard Pope that went for 35+ yards each.
The pundits are now talking about how Green Bay’s weaknesses have been exposed and how vulnerable they will be in the playoffs, but I’m not buying it. I like how the Packers didn’t shirk from their quest to go undefeated, unlike the Colts of the last few years who went 13-0 AND 14-0, twice took it easy and played to lose in the final weeks, and twice failed to win the Super Bowl (I wrote about it here). The Patriots kept pushing for their undefeated season and were only stopped by a talented, desperate, and very lucky Giants team in the last 2 minutes of the Super Bowl.
This year’s Packers remind me a lot of the 1998 Denver Broncos, who were also defending Super Bowl champions (both winning from the wild card spot), and also started 13-0 in defense of their super bowl. The Broncos lost their 14th game of the year to the Giants in the last 2 minutes and only after their undefeated season was over did they rest their starters for the last 2 games to get ready for the playoffs. The Broncos cruised to the Super Bowl and I expect the Packers to do the same, barring an injury to Rodgers. They have the talent and have shown they have the will to compete in every game and expect to win every game and that leads me to expect a Green Bay Super Bowl again this year.
Lost in the Packers first loss is another year of the 1972 Miami Dolphin’s record as the only undefeated team in NFL history. The surviving members of that squad annually have a champagne toast when there are no undefeated teams left in the NFL and they tend to be derided for celebrating other team’s losses. Ever since the Patriots managed to go through the regular season unbeaten, I think there has been far less attention paid to the Dolphins and their perfect season of 40 years ago. But each season that goes by without an undefeated team underscores just how difficult it is for a team to go undefeated and how awesome the Dolphin’s accomplishment was.
I saw (or heard on the radio) at least half the Dolphins games that year and they were a powerhouse, smashmouth team, belying their white uniforms with the fish on the helmet. The Dolphin’s would run inside with brusier Larry Czonka and Jim Kiick behind an all-pro offensive line. When the defense would eventually try to plug the middle, then the Dolphins would run a sweep with speedster Mercury Morris or a play-action pass to Hall of Famer Paul Warfield. The defense was led by a ball-hawking secondary and bend but don’t break defense that put a premium on making the opponents offense drive down the field in small chunks, knowing they would eventually be able to force a mistake. The Dolphins even lost their Hall of Fame quarterback Bob Griese to a broken leg for over half the season and still won all their games. Compare that with last year’s playoff teams like the Chiefs, Bears, and Colts who went into the tank this year as soon as they had to turn to their backup quarterback.
The only game I thought the Dolphins were in danger of losing all year long was the AFC championship game in Pittsburgh against the then inexperienced Steeler squad who would win 4 Super Bowls later in the decade. The Dolphins were trailing in the second half, but Griese came off the bench and rallied his team to victory. Like all great teams, the Dolphins could win in any number of ways. They chose to keep the game under control and grind out wins by running and relying on their great defense, but they could out score their opponents if needed. Being behind by a touchdown to the Dolphins that year was like being behind 2 or 3 touchdowns to another team. The Jets played them twice and the Giants once. Once they fell behind, the game seemed over because it was next to impossible to get the ball back and once they did they could barely move the ball against the great Dolphin defense.
The Dolphins perfect season is maligned by some, who say they had one of the weakest schedules of any Super Bowl winner and during the regular season only had to play 2 teams with winning records. They were so lightly thought of during their undefeated run that they were underdogs to the Washington Redskins in the Super Bowl. But they played every team on their schedule and won, which no team in the last 40 years have been able to do. If the 1972 Dolphins come off as arrogant in celebrating their perfection, it’s OK with me. Here’s to the Dolphins who are still the only undefeated team in NFL history and the Packers for not taking the easy way out in their (unsuccessful) pursuit of perfection.
The Chief fans are elated by the victory and rightly so, but I wonder why a coach in only his third year is fired when he won the division in his second year? The Chiefs lost Pro Bowl running back Jamaal Charles, quarterback Matt Cassell, and budding superstar tight end Tony Moeaki to injury earlier this season. General Manager Scott Pioli managed to pick up a serviceable quarterback (Orton), who promptly broke his thumb in his first game, leaving the quarterback chores in the shaky hands of one Tyler Palko. I’m assuming Haley had some sort of problems getting along with the players or Pioli, but since Pioli was the one who hired Haley less than 3 years ago, how long will it be till the former New England boy wonder’s judgment comes under question?
I was one of the many who thought the Packers would win all their regular season games, especially after their last second victory in the Meadowlands against the Giants. I was watching the Kansas City game and it appeared to me the defending Super Bowl champs were upended by injuries on the offensive line which played into the hands of a hungry team intent on pressuring quarterback Aaron Rodgers and an offense that found a couple of trick screen plays to tight end Leonard Pope that went for 35+ yards each.
The pundits are now talking about how Green Bay’s weaknesses have been exposed and how vulnerable they will be in the playoffs, but I’m not buying it. I like how the Packers didn’t shirk from their quest to go undefeated, unlike the Colts of the last few years who went 13-0 AND 14-0, twice took it easy and played to lose in the final weeks, and twice failed to win the Super Bowl (I wrote about it here). The Patriots kept pushing for their undefeated season and were only stopped by a talented, desperate, and very lucky Giants team in the last 2 minutes of the Super Bowl.
This year’s Packers remind me a lot of the 1998 Denver Broncos, who were also defending Super Bowl champions (both winning from the wild card spot), and also started 13-0 in defense of their super bowl. The Broncos lost their 14th game of the year to the Giants in the last 2 minutes and only after their undefeated season was over did they rest their starters for the last 2 games to get ready for the playoffs. The Broncos cruised to the Super Bowl and I expect the Packers to do the same, barring an injury to Rodgers. They have the talent and have shown they have the will to compete in every game and expect to win every game and that leads me to expect a Green Bay Super Bowl again this year.
Lost in the Packers first loss is another year of the 1972 Miami Dolphin’s record as the only undefeated team in NFL history. The surviving members of that squad annually have a champagne toast when there are no undefeated teams left in the NFL and they tend to be derided for celebrating other team’s losses. Ever since the Patriots managed to go through the regular season unbeaten, I think there has been far less attention paid to the Dolphins and their perfect season of 40 years ago. But each season that goes by without an undefeated team underscores just how difficult it is for a team to go undefeated and how awesome the Dolphin’s accomplishment was.
I saw (or heard on the radio) at least half the Dolphins games that year and they were a powerhouse, smashmouth team, belying their white uniforms with the fish on the helmet. The Dolphin’s would run inside with brusier Larry Czonka and Jim Kiick behind an all-pro offensive line. When the defense would eventually try to plug the middle, then the Dolphins would run a sweep with speedster Mercury Morris or a play-action pass to Hall of Famer Paul Warfield. The defense was led by a ball-hawking secondary and bend but don’t break defense that put a premium on making the opponents offense drive down the field in small chunks, knowing they would eventually be able to force a mistake. The Dolphins even lost their Hall of Fame quarterback Bob Griese to a broken leg for over half the season and still won all their games. Compare that with last year’s playoff teams like the Chiefs, Bears, and Colts who went into the tank this year as soon as they had to turn to their backup quarterback.
The only game I thought the Dolphins were in danger of losing all year long was the AFC championship game in Pittsburgh against the then inexperienced Steeler squad who would win 4 Super Bowls later in the decade. The Dolphins were trailing in the second half, but Griese came off the bench and rallied his team to victory. Like all great teams, the Dolphins could win in any number of ways. They chose to keep the game under control and grind out wins by running and relying on their great defense, but they could out score their opponents if needed. Being behind by a touchdown to the Dolphins that year was like being behind 2 or 3 touchdowns to another team. The Jets played them twice and the Giants once. Once they fell behind, the game seemed over because it was next to impossible to get the ball back and once they did they could barely move the ball against the great Dolphin defense.
The Dolphins perfect season is maligned by some, who say they had one of the weakest schedules of any Super Bowl winner and during the regular season only had to play 2 teams with winning records. They were so lightly thought of during their undefeated run that they were underdogs to the Washington Redskins in the Super Bowl. But they played every team on their schedule and won, which no team in the last 40 years have been able to do. If the 1972 Dolphins come off as arrogant in celebrating their perfection, it’s OK with me. Here’s to the Dolphins who are still the only undefeated team in NFL history and the Packers for not taking the easy way out in their (unsuccessful) pursuit of perfection.
Wednesday, December 7, 2011
Rematch
On Sunday the powers that be of college football confirmed that the Louisiana State University Tigers and the Alabama Crimson Tide will play for the college football championship on January 9th. It seems like a reasonable decision since LSU was the only undefeated team in College Football this season and Alabama was the only team to give the Tigers a close game, losing at home in overtime by a 9-6 score. The teams were determined by the arcane Bowl Championship Series Formula that combines a coaches poll, a poll of media and former coaches and players, and an aggregate of 6 computer polls to assign numerical value to a team’s season with the top 2 teams battling in the championship game. Alabama was given a score of .942, ranking it barely ahead of the Oklahoma State Cowboys at .933.
The Bowl Championship Series (BCS) also determines the teams that will play in the Rose, Sugar, Orange, and Fiesta Bowls in addition to the championship game that rotates between the 4 bowl sites. The 5 bowl games bring in $125 annually in television rights alone from ESPN before any tickets are bought,cars parked, or hot dogs are eaten, not to mention corporate sponsorships. There are 6 college conferences that run the BCS (Big 10, Big 12, Southeastern Conference, Big East, Atlantic Coast Conference, and the Pacific 12) and each conference is assured of a spot in one of the 5 BCS bowl games and the lucrative $22 million payout. If a conference gets a second team in a BCS game, they pocket an extra 6 million (You can follow the money here.)
Since the 6 BCS conferences have a considerable monetary interest in making sure as many of their teams play in the BCS bowls as possible, lawmakers representing states with colleges outside the BCS conferences threaten from time to time to regulate the college football industry unless the process is opened up to non-BCS schools. This has led to the BCS allowing for non-BCS schools to crash the party by jumping through a rat’s nest of hoops to get in a BCS bowl. If Notre Dame is in the top 8 of the BCS rankings, they are guaranteed a BCS bowl bid. A team from a non BCS-conference is guaranteed a BCS bowl if they are in the top 12 of the BCS rankings or are in the top 16 and have a higher ranking than a BCS conference champion.
This is the first year since 2005 that a team from a non BCS conference hasn’t received a BCS bowl bid. The non BCS schools have had reasonable success in their bowl contests against the ‘elite’ schools. Boise State beat mighty Oklahoma in the 2007 Fiesta Bowl, TCU defeated Big Ten champ Wisconsin in January’s Rose Bowl, and Utah defeated then #4 Alabama 31-17 in the 2009 Sugar Bowl to go along with Hawaii’s 41-10 loss to Georgia in the 2008 Sugar Bowl. 2 years ago, both TCU and Boise State received BCS bowl invitations, but had to play each other and were denied to chance to prove their worth against BCS conference winners.
This year’s most ‘controversial’ BCS bowl selections were the Sugar Bowl choosing #13 Michigan and #11 Virgina Tech over higher ranked teams like Boise St (7) and Kansas State (8). Last week Michigan wasn’t eligible to be selected for a BCS bowl since they didn’t win their conference championship and weren’t ranked in the top 14, but they conveniently jumped 3 spots despite not even playing last week. TCU beat a poor UNLV team 56-9 but remained 2 spots short of BCS bowl at # 18. Virginia Tech lost 38-10 to # 20 Clemson, but only slid 6 spots from #5 to 11 and even managed to stay ahead of Clemson who moved to #17.
Accusations of rigged voting by the pollsters are rampant, but who could blame a university or a loyal reporter for moving a few selected teams up or down a few spots with millions of dollars riding on the decision? Alabama coach Nick Saban has come under some criticism for placing the Oklahoma State team 4th on his ballot, but I’m really surprised he even included his closest rival for the championship game on his ballot. I would have expected all the BCS conference schools to do everything possible to keep TCU out of the top 16 and a $20+ million dollar payday going out of BCS conference pockets.
I can understand the Sugar Bowl wanting Michigan, who has the largest living alumni group and haven’t been in a BCS bowl since 2007 or any bowl since 2008. There will no doubt be many Michigan fans watching the game on TV and many alumni celebrating their teams return to relevance by spending their cash in New Orleans to watch their Maize and Blue. The Virginia Tech fans are also expected to travel well. While the fans of Boise State and Kansas State are also rabid in their devotion, there just weren’t enough of them to entice the Sugar Bowl to choose their teams.
I don’t mind the BCS protecting their revenue sources or the bowls picking teams based on how much money their fans will spend in the host cities. I just wish they’d admit it. Almost every team that manages to win half their games (70 in all) gets to go to a bowl anyway so it’s all just a matter of prestige of who goes to what bowl. College football may be the biggest money-making scam ever. The colleges rake in the dough from TV revenues, ticket sales, concessions, parking, wearing Nike or Reebok apparrel, and donations from their alumni among many other sources; they don't even pay the players, just provide room, board, books, and an empty seat in the classroom. If a player gets hurt or doesn't live up to their potential, the scholarship can be revoked (it's only year to year) and the college has no obligation to make sure the players graduate, only that their grades are good enough to be eligible to play.
Many of the college football purists are offended at the prospect of a rematch, but it doesn’t bother me. The championship game is nothing more than a 2 team playoff and I think the chances are pretty good that these 2 teams would still be playing if there was an 8 or 16 game playoff. It is undeniable that of all the 12 1-loss teams in the country, Alabama’s loss was to the best team. If Oklahoma State wanted to be in the championship game, all they had to do was beat Iowa State just like the Oklahoma team they soundly defeated last weekend managed to do the week before last. I’ll reserve my sympathy for the years where there are 3 or more undefeated teams and teams are shut out of a chance at the championship despite winning all their games.
The Bowl Championship Series (BCS) also determines the teams that will play in the Rose, Sugar, Orange, and Fiesta Bowls in addition to the championship game that rotates between the 4 bowl sites. The 5 bowl games bring in $125 annually in television rights alone from ESPN before any tickets are bought,cars parked, or hot dogs are eaten, not to mention corporate sponsorships. There are 6 college conferences that run the BCS (Big 10, Big 12, Southeastern Conference, Big East, Atlantic Coast Conference, and the Pacific 12) and each conference is assured of a spot in one of the 5 BCS bowl games and the lucrative $22 million payout. If a conference gets a second team in a BCS game, they pocket an extra 6 million (You can follow the money here.)
Since the 6 BCS conferences have a considerable monetary interest in making sure as many of their teams play in the BCS bowls as possible, lawmakers representing states with colleges outside the BCS conferences threaten from time to time to regulate the college football industry unless the process is opened up to non-BCS schools. This has led to the BCS allowing for non-BCS schools to crash the party by jumping through a rat’s nest of hoops to get in a BCS bowl. If Notre Dame is in the top 8 of the BCS rankings, they are guaranteed a BCS bowl bid. A team from a non BCS-conference is guaranteed a BCS bowl if they are in the top 12 of the BCS rankings or are in the top 16 and have a higher ranking than a BCS conference champion.
This is the first year since 2005 that a team from a non BCS conference hasn’t received a BCS bowl bid. The non BCS schools have had reasonable success in their bowl contests against the ‘elite’ schools. Boise State beat mighty Oklahoma in the 2007 Fiesta Bowl, TCU defeated Big Ten champ Wisconsin in January’s Rose Bowl, and Utah defeated then #4 Alabama 31-17 in the 2009 Sugar Bowl to go along with Hawaii’s 41-10 loss to Georgia in the 2008 Sugar Bowl. 2 years ago, both TCU and Boise State received BCS bowl invitations, but had to play each other and were denied to chance to prove their worth against BCS conference winners.
This year’s most ‘controversial’ BCS bowl selections were the Sugar Bowl choosing #13 Michigan and #11 Virgina Tech over higher ranked teams like Boise St (7) and Kansas State (8). Last week Michigan wasn’t eligible to be selected for a BCS bowl since they didn’t win their conference championship and weren’t ranked in the top 14, but they conveniently jumped 3 spots despite not even playing last week. TCU beat a poor UNLV team 56-9 but remained 2 spots short of BCS bowl at # 18. Virginia Tech lost 38-10 to # 20 Clemson, but only slid 6 spots from #5 to 11 and even managed to stay ahead of Clemson who moved to #17.
Accusations of rigged voting by the pollsters are rampant, but who could blame a university or a loyal reporter for moving a few selected teams up or down a few spots with millions of dollars riding on the decision? Alabama coach Nick Saban has come under some criticism for placing the Oklahoma State team 4th on his ballot, but I’m really surprised he even included his closest rival for the championship game on his ballot. I would have expected all the BCS conference schools to do everything possible to keep TCU out of the top 16 and a $20+ million dollar payday going out of BCS conference pockets.
I can understand the Sugar Bowl wanting Michigan, who has the largest living alumni group and haven’t been in a BCS bowl since 2007 or any bowl since 2008. There will no doubt be many Michigan fans watching the game on TV and many alumni celebrating their teams return to relevance by spending their cash in New Orleans to watch their Maize and Blue. The Virginia Tech fans are also expected to travel well. While the fans of Boise State and Kansas State are also rabid in their devotion, there just weren’t enough of them to entice the Sugar Bowl to choose their teams.
I don’t mind the BCS protecting their revenue sources or the bowls picking teams based on how much money their fans will spend in the host cities. I just wish they’d admit it. Almost every team that manages to win half their games (70 in all) gets to go to a bowl anyway so it’s all just a matter of prestige of who goes to what bowl. College football may be the biggest money-making scam ever. The colleges rake in the dough from TV revenues, ticket sales, concessions, parking, wearing Nike or Reebok apparrel, and donations from their alumni among many other sources; they don't even pay the players, just provide room, board, books, and an empty seat in the classroom. If a player gets hurt or doesn't live up to their potential, the scholarship can be revoked (it's only year to year) and the college has no obligation to make sure the players graduate, only that their grades are good enough to be eligible to play.
Many of the college football purists are offended at the prospect of a rematch, but it doesn’t bother me. The championship game is nothing more than a 2 team playoff and I think the chances are pretty good that these 2 teams would still be playing if there was an 8 or 16 game playoff. It is undeniable that of all the 12 1-loss teams in the country, Alabama’s loss was to the best team. If Oklahoma State wanted to be in the championship game, all they had to do was beat Iowa State just like the Oklahoma team they soundly defeated last weekend managed to do the week before last. I’ll reserve my sympathy for the years where there are 3 or more undefeated teams and teams are shut out of a chance at the championship despite winning all their games.
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