A Gamble Worth Taking

  As I set about loading the 2017-2018 NBA schedule into my basketball prediction program and resumed my never ending search for the elusive formula that would give me better results than the 54% success rate my program returned last season the biggest trade in many years was completed when the Cleveland Cavaliers traded all-star guard Kyrie Irving to the Boston Celtics for injured all-star guard Isaiah Thomas, starting forward Jae Crowder, a prospect, and the Brooklyn Nets first round pick in the 2018 draft which is almost certain to be a high lottery pick.

  Most of the sports media proclaimed this trade a big win for the Cavaliers. Irving demanded a trade this summer from a team that has been to three NBA finals with one championship. While Irving was contractually obligated to play for the Cavaliers for the next two years, a holdout or halfhearted effort would cripple Cleveland’s chances to compete for a championship in what may be superstar LeBron James’ last year with the team before his rumored departure to the West Coast to finish his career.

  When I look at basketball trades I look at two things – who got the best player and is the best player a superstar? The team that gets a superstar as the best player is almost always the winner of any trade. Almost. There are a few times where the team getting the best player lost the deal. In 2014 the Lakers obtained perennial all-star Dwight Howard from the Orlando Magic in a complicated four team trade that involved them sending their own all-star center Andrew Bynum and a lottery protected first round pick to the Philadelphia 76ers. Another notable player involved in the deal was Finals MVP Andre Iguodala. The Lakers didn’t win this deal because Howard played the same position as the Lakers other star center Pau Gasol and while Gasol could share the floor with Bynum (who played more of a defensive forward), he was rendered superfluous because he could not play with Howard. Howard left for the Houston Rockets after one season with the Lakers which meant the Lakers traded Bynum and a first round pick for one season of Dwight Howard’s services. The Lakers haven’t lost the deal to my mind until we know who the first-round pick will be (which will be given up this season) since Bynum’s career has fizzled out worse than Howard’s but they certainly didn’t win it Another deal where the team getting the best player didn’t win was the Knicks acquisition of Carmelo Anthony in the middle of the 2010-2011 season for promising rookie but often injured Danilo Gallinari and spare parts. The Knicks with Anthony have won exactly one playoff series in the intervening six years which has more to do with their poor management than anything Anthony has done but the Knicks cannot be considered winners in the Carmelo Anthony trade. The sad truth is the Knicks have only had a better record than the Nuggets once since getting Anthony.

  When I think of teams that have won trades by getting the best player in the deal, I think of the Lakers getting Kareem-Abdul-Jabbar from the Milwaukee Bucks in 1975 for a couple of prospects and spare parts or the same Lakers getting Wilt Chamberlain for Archie Clark and some other spare parts. There is no doubt the Phoenix Suns won their 1992 trade for Charles Barkley for first time all-star guard Jeff Hornacek and two other players since they got to the NBA Finals for the first time in 16 years (and haven’t been back since). The Lakers trade of Marc Gasol, two first round draft picks, and some parts to the Grizzlies for Pau Gasol can be looked at as a win for both sides but the Lakers got to three finals (with two championships) with Pau Gasol and while Marc Gasol is a perennial all-star now he wasn’t close to being that player a decade ago.

  The reason the team that gets the best player so often comes out on the long end of a basketball trade seems obvious – there are less players on a basketball team and a basketball court than any of the other team sports so getting a top player can immediately elevate a team in basketball like no other sport.

  The winner of the Irving-Thomas deal hinges on who is the better player and it is clear to me that Irving is by far the better player than Thomas. This wouldn’t have been a debate two years ago but in the meantime Thomas has made two all-star teams. Irving has made four all-star teams (including twice without LeBron James as his teammate) Thomas has never been picked for the USA basketball team, Irving was on the Olympic team last year and was the most valuable player in the FIBA World Cup in 2014. And did I mention that Irving made the game winning three pointer that won Game 7 of the NBA finals in 2016? When the Cavs and Celtics met in last year’s Eastern Conference finals the Cavaliers were leading 2-1 but in Game 4 fell behind by 15 points and James had four fouls in the first half. Irving took over the game and scored 42 points in leading the Cavaliers to a comeback win that broke the Celtics’ sprit. Thomas is a very good player and a great scorer but Irving does things that only a handful of players have ever been able to do. And don’t forget that Irving is four years younger than Thomas and Thomas is still recovering from a major hip injury.

  I believe this trade was a major win for the Celtics but there are a number of ways this trade can go wrong or even very wrong. Irving is signed for two more years. If he decides he wants to play somewhere else in two years the Celtics will have traded a top draft pick for two years of Kyrie Irving and there is also the possibility that Irving may want to force an immediate trade from Boston just like he did this summer. Irving has had a knee surgery and tendonitis in his left knee which is a cause for concern but has been healthy for the last two years. If the Nets pick turns out to be the next superstar then of course the deal will look bad although at this point there is no way of knowing where or who that pick will be.

  All in all, Kyrie Irving is one of the best players in the NBA. Top players are so hard to get that this was a gamble Boston had to take. There is one consideration that I hadn’t heard mentioned much that could have long-term impact. Isaiah Thomas was a beloved player in Boston and the 5 foot 9 inch last pick in the draft personified the underdog image the city has of itself. He played for the Celtics in the playoffs with an injured hip and through the death of his sister last year. And he was traded just like a commodity. It cannot be argued that he has been treated very poorly by the franchise and I wonder if future NBA super stars will pass on playing for Boston or insisting on no-trade clauses or other compensation that wouldn’t be expected from other teams.

  As for Cleveland, if the Nets pick turns into a superstar or is traded for a player that helps the Cavaliers win another championship then they have to be considered winners in the trade but I can’t agree until I understand how a winning team can drive away a multi time all-star. The Cavaliers got some value for Irving but should have never been in that position to begin with.