Tuesday, June 9, 2015

NBA Finals Predictions - Game 3

  I spent the weekend beagle sitting while Kathy went with Ben to Baton Rouge to get him settled in for his summer job at LSU and I spent my Sunday night watching my NBA Finals Game 2 predictions crash and burn as the two teams combined for 188 points despite going to overtime which was well under the over under line of 201. To make matters worse J.R. Smith only took five 3-point shots and the two he made was half of the 4 I needed him to make to win my prop bet. I think this may have been some instant karma coming my way for not paying homage to Mayor of Ames Fred Hoiberg on his new job as the head coach of the Chicago Bulls. The double loss doubly hurt since my predictions finally made the front page of the Google search engine under NBA Finals Predictions. Karma or not, the $130 loss drops my finals predictions from $97.50 in the black to $32.50 in the red as the Series heads to Cleveland for Game 3.

  The Cavaliers have been successful in slowing the game down by using the shot clock, getting offensive rebounds, and taking advantage of the Warriors’ uncharacteristically poor three point shooting. The over under for Game 3 is 194.5 at Sportsbook.ag. There was only 174 points scored in regulation of game two. If the offensive output were to increase by 10% that would mean 191 points which would still be under 194.5. I feel like my luck has run out of the over/under and will switch to the point spread. The Warriors are a one point favorite so I’ll give the point for $110 to get $100. As good as the Cavalier defense has been and as good as LeBron James has been I believe the Warriors’ speed will come into play in the next two games which will be the first two in the series with only one day of rest.

  I noticed in Sunday's game that Warriors guard and NBA MVP Stephen Curry was looking to draw contact and get to the free throw line to make up for his poor shooting night. All the great players have learned that getting to the foul line is how championship basketball is played deep into the playoffs. I expect the Curry to continue to push the action so as my prop bet for the game I’ll bet $11.50 to win $10 that Curry will make more than the over under line of 4.5 free throws. As usual, my predictions and bets are for entertainment purposes only and real money is not being used.