Sunday, June 14, 2015

NBA Finals Predictions - Game 5

  Despite missing my game two and game three predictions in the NBA Finals this Broken Pawn blog has made an appearance on the front page of Google for the search term ‘NBA Finals Predictions’ in what is a long, long way from winning the 2011 self-nominated Chess Journalists of America Best Chess Blog Award. This tells me that there is a niche market for reasoned NBA betting predictions and brings the possibility of my spending my free time this summer resurrecting my 25+ year old basketball prediction program more into the realm of reality. In Game 4, the Warriors took the early lead , weathered the Cavaliers third quarter comeback, and stretched the lead out in the fourth quarter for a comfortable 21 point win. Since I had the Warriors giving the 2.5 points I was a winner and evened my Finals predictions at 2-2. Klay Thompson only scored 9 points which was well below the 22 I was counting which made my record in prop bets a dismal 1-4 and reduced my mythical winnings for Game 4 to $77 but did trim my Finals ledger to a manageable $77 on the minus side.

   The series is tied at two games apiece with two of the remaining games at Oracle Arena in San Francisco where the Warriors have lost four games all season and the Cavaliers won game two of the series. The Warriors have outscored the Cavaliers by 21 points in the four games yet the series is a best two out of three. This eerily reminds me of the 1960 World Series where the Yankees outscored the Pirates 55-27 yet lost the Series in seven games as the Pirates scored only three runs in their three losses (10-0, 12-0, 16-3) while winning their four games by 1,1,2, and 3 runs. Everything I read and hear say the Cavaliers are exhausted and the Warriors have finally figured out how to attack the Cavaliers big front line with their ‘small ball’ lineup. I think two days off will allow the Cavaliers to shake off the effects of their shorthanded rotation and having to play three games in five days.

  Sportsbook.ag has the Warriors as an 8 point favorite with an over-under of 195. The Cavaliers don’t seem capable of stepping up the pace and only the first game has gone over 195. With only two or three games left in the NBA season I’m going to double my action and bet $110 on the under of 195 and bet $110 on the Cavaliers taking the 8 points. My thinking is that the Cavaliers have had two days to rest and two days to figure out how to take advantage of the wrinkles the Warriors came up with in Games 3 and 4 of stating Andre Iguodala and playing David Lee. I’m looking for another close low scoring game. For my proposition bet, the over-under on Stephen Curry is 28 points even though the league MVP has not scored 28 points yet in this series. I’ll make a $23 bet to win $20 that Curry remains under 28 points in Game 5. And as usual, please keep in mind that these predictions are for entertainment purposes only with no real money being wagered.

1 comment:

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