Thursday, June 11, 2015

NBA Finals Predictions - Game 4

  I couldn’t have been more wrong about Game 3 of the NBA Finals. Not only did the Cavaliers easily win (yes I know the Warriors mounted a furious comeback but they were double digits behind most of the second half) , but Stephen Curry shied away from contact all game long and did not attempt a single free throw. This was a far cry from the 5 I picked him to make and dropped my NBA Finals losses to $154 thankfully mythical dollars heading into Game 4 of the Finals.

  The series has been a contrast in styles and the Cavaliers’ bulk and size have won out so far over the Warriors speed and interchangeability. When I’m watching these games I keep thinking the Warriors will get on a hot streak and grab a big lead with a flurry of three point shots but except for the beginning of Game 2 the only flurries the Warriors have had is when they are way behind. I have seen many instances of the best team vs. the best player and I’ve never seen the best player win but LeBron James has taken over all three games not only with his scoring but by running the shot clock down on almost every possession and singlehandedly keeping the Warriors from establishing a fast paced game.

  Despite being behind in the series 2 games to one, despite the game being in Cleveland, and despite being physically manhandled in the first three games the Warriors are a 2.5 point favorite. How can this be? The first thought that comes to my mind is that there is a lot of money on the Warriors and the second thought that comes to my mind is that the series is getting record ratings and the NBA and ABC and their corporate sponsors would like to see a longer series.

  I don’t know if I really think this is the case but I don’t discount the NBA being willing to assign referees that call more fouls against the home team. I just can’t believe the Warriors will keep missing the wide open shots they have been to this point in time so I will give the 2,5 points for $110 mythical dollars and hope to win $100. For my prop bet the over\under on points by LeBron James is a staggering 36.5 points. That seems about right for me so I will go in a different direction and bet $23 on Klay Thompson getting more than 21.5 points to pocket $20 if he has a big game. As customary for the NBA Finals, I’m using the odds from and my predictions are for entertainment purposes only with no real money being bet (even though being down $154 stings, mythical or not!).